Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burnt Store Marina, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:38PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:16 PM EST (00:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 246 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds increasing to around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night through Sunday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 246 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move across the waters later tonight with showers and a few Thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Winds will shift to the northwest and north and increase toward small craft levels over the offshore waters late tonight through Thursday as the front moves through the waters. The front will move south of the waters Thursday night as high pressure builds in over the northern gulf on Friday and into the upcoming weekend with diminishing winds and subsiding seas expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burnt Store Marina, FL
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location: 26.76, -82.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 142343
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
643 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Aviation
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
north through the area overnight, causing periods of
MVFR-ifr conditions. Widespread MVFR ceilings will spread
across the area overnight as a cold front passes south through
the area. On Thursday, periods of MVFR ceilings will
continue throughout much of the day under breezy northwest
winds.

Prev discussion issued 218 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Turning much cooler and drier on Friday and into the
weekend...

short term (tonight - Thursday)...

an amplified upper air pattern will persist across the conus
during the short term period. An upper level trough closed
low over the lower mississippi valley this afternoon will
lift northeast into the ohio valley through Thursday. At the
surface an area of low pressure will develop along a
stalled frontal boundary over the eastern gulf tonight. This
low will then deepen as it lifts out to the northeast up
along the mid atlantic coast through Thursday. As the low
lifts out a trailing cold front will sweep southeast through
the forecast area later tonight and early on Thursday.

Ample moisture and lift will support scattered to numerous
showers and isolated storms across the forecast area tonight
through early Thursday as the front moves across the
region.

On Thursday any lingering rain during the morning will end
by early afternoon as much cooler and drier air advects
into the region on an increasing northwest to northerly wind
flow in the wake of the front. Temperatures will be mild
through the first half of tonight, then cooler drier air
will begin to move in from the north early on Thursday, and
highs temperatures on Thursday will likely occur during the
morning hours with steady or even falling temperatures
possible during the afternoon as strong cold air advection
gets underway. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
lower 60s north, mid to upper 60s central, and around 70
across southwest florida with highs on Thursday in the mid
to upper 60s north, around 70 to the lower 70s central, and
mid 70s south.

Long term (Thursday night - Wednesday)...

by Thursday night, the surface front will have pushed south
of the area, with the moisture lingering behind the front
across the southern half of the area and some of the cooler
drier air starting to push into the nature coast. The upper
low will be in place to the north of the area and lift out
to the northeast through Friday. The clearing behind the
surface front continues to push south through Friday, with
the cooler and drier air overspreading the area as high
pressure builds into the southeast u.S. Lows Thursday and
Friday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and in the
mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Highs Friday mid 60s to lower
70s, then lower to mid 70s Saturday afternoon.

Surface ridging then continues across the area through the
weekend as conditions moderate, and aloft generally W sw
flow remains across the area. A weak front then moves into
the area Monday night, with upper energy lingering across
the area through the end of the period. No appreciable rain
chances expected with this however. Highs will linger in the
70s to around 80 through the rest of the period, with lows
in the 50s to lower 60s.

Marine... Developing low pressure over the eastern gulf
along a stalled frontal boundary will deepen as it lifts out
to the northeast across the northern peninsula later
tonight and then up along the mid atlantic coast through
Thursday night. As the low lifts out to the northeast a
trailing cold front will get pulled southeast through the
waters later tonight through early Thursday with winds
shifting into the northwest and north in its wake with a
period of small craft conditions likely with hazardous
boating conditions developing. With wind and seas expected
to increase overnight into Thursday in the wake of the front
will hoist small craft headlines for the offshore waters
for later tonight through Thursday, with cautionary
headlines closer to shore. The building seas and increasing
onshore flow will also increase the potential for dangerous
rip currents at all area beaches later tonight through
Thursday night and will hoist a high risk of rip current
statement as well. Lighter winds and lower seas will return
to the waters on Friday night and into the upcoming weekend
as surface high pressure builds in over the gulf in the wake
of the front.

Fire weather...

much cooler and drier air in the wake of a cold front will
move into the region to close out the week. Humidity
values may fall close to 35 percent over interior locations
during Friday afternoon, however low erc values and
diminishing winds will preclude red flag conditions. A slow
increase in moisture is expected during the weekend as winds
quickly veer into the northeast and east with no other fire
weather hazards or concerns expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 68 70 50 67 80 20 0 0
fmy 71 77 55 72 70 20 0 0
gif 68 73 46 68 80 20 0 0
srq 69 72 54 69 70 20 0 0
bkv 66 67 42 66 80 20 0 0
spg 69 70 54 67 80 20 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from 5 am est Thursday through
Thursday evening for coastal charlotte-coastal
hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal
sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm est
Thursday for waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon springs
to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Aviation... 18 fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 13 mi28 min N 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 82°F1014.8 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 26 mi142 min SW 8 G 8.9 83°F 1015 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 30 mi16 min SSW 7 G 8 80°F 80°F1014.9 hPa (+0.3)76°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 45 mi28 min Calm G 4.1 82°F 82°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL12 mi23 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1015.8 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL16 mi23 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1015 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL22 mi23 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F82%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from PGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmSE3CalmE5E3CalmNE3CalmNE4CalmE8NE10NE9NE8E9E10S5S4SW6E4NE6
1 day agoCalmSE4E3E3SE4E4SE4SE4E3NE4CalmSE4SE6SE7S8S10S10S11SW16S9SW5SW4W4Calm
2 days agoE7E9E9E7E6E6E5NE4NE4E3E5E4E6E10SE11SE11SE11S8--W9SW10W9SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Matlacha Pass (bascule bridge), Florida
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Matlacha Pass (bascule bridge)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:21 AM EST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 AM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:38 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:34 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.31.51.61.71.71.71.51.310.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.811.21.31.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:28 AM EST     1.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     1.70 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:39 PM EST     -0.16 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.81.21.10.70-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.20.61.31.61.71.51.310.60.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.