Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burnt Store Marina, FL
May 13, 2024 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 10:32 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 1022 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
This afternoon - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 7 seconds and south 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1022 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis -
pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased se winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday. Increased winds will also support increased wave heights. Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.
pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased se winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday. Increased winds will also support increased wave heights. Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.
FXUS62 KTBW 131730 AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 130 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Two separate areas of convective activity still appear to be a possibility later today with sea breeze convection expected to form by late afternoon and evening across the interior and a potential MCS approaching the region from the Gulf coast states.
Regarding the sea breeze activity, PoPs are in the 45%-60% for interior areas as the sea breeze spreads inland and collides with the east coast sea breeze with westerly winds aloft helping to keep this activity a bit closer towards the eastern half of the peninsula. However, any deeper convection that does develop within our CWA will have the potential of localized torrential downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and hail. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance continues to struggle with how the MCS that is currently across the Gulf coast states will eventually track as it moves to the ESE across the northern Gulf waters and nearby southeastern states along a baroclinic zone. Latest trends suggest that this complex should be on a gradual weakening trend by the time it approaches the Nature Coast by this evening but there should be enough instability in the offshore Gulf waters to sustain this feature for as it approaches our coastline. Thus, can't rule out a damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornado and/or waterspout threat for portions of the Nature Coast with this activity depending on how convection evolves so latest trends will continued to be monitored throughout the day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The work week will start out quite a bit more humid compared to yesterday as deeper moisture returns. As the high pressure moves further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds increase as the gradient tightens. Rain chances also increase tomorrow as the sea breezes collide along the interior. Some storms developing along these boundaries could become severe as extra energy provided by mid-level impulses move over the area, supporting elevated CAPE values and effective bulk shear. With all these ingredients coming together, Storm prediction Center has placed portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. Main concern will be along the nature coast and the interior where sea breeze collisions are expected. Main threat will be for hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado.
Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves east scraping across northern portions of the peninsula. A surface low with accompanying this short wave is expected to move over the area bringing another round of showers and storms. SPC has also marked areas mainly north of I4 as a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, Tuesday and portions of Levy county and areas northward, Wednesday.
Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into Friday as ridging tries to build back over the area. Temperatures remain on the above average side, with highs in the low to mid 90s more most areas.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
VFR conditions will generally be in place through the remainder of the day but scattered showers and storms will develop across interior areas and this activity may be in close enough proximity to KLAL for some brief periods of restrictions. There will also be a line of showers and storms that approaches the area mainly north of Tampa Bay by this evening and should generally be on a weakening trend but some VCSH may be possible at Tampa Bay area terminals. Otherwise, patchy low stratus overnight may support a period of MVFR CIGs before VFR conditions return by Tuesday morning. However, forecast guidance does suggest that another thunderstorm complex may approach the area by Tuesday afternoon but forecast confidence is too low to include mention in current TAF issuance.
MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased SE winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday.
Increased winds will also support increased wave heights.
Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
No major fire weather concerns through the week as RH values remain above critical levels. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to move over portions of the CWA beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 79 88 / 40 40 40 70 FMY 77 94 79 92 / 10 10 10 40 GIF 74 95 76 90 / 40 40 30 70 SRQ 77 91 77 90 / 10 20 30 60 BKV 70 93 73 88 / 50 60 50 80 SPG 80 89 80 87 / 30 40 40 60
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 130 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Two separate areas of convective activity still appear to be a possibility later today with sea breeze convection expected to form by late afternoon and evening across the interior and a potential MCS approaching the region from the Gulf coast states.
Regarding the sea breeze activity, PoPs are in the 45%-60% for interior areas as the sea breeze spreads inland and collides with the east coast sea breeze with westerly winds aloft helping to keep this activity a bit closer towards the eastern half of the peninsula. However, any deeper convection that does develop within our CWA will have the potential of localized torrential downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and hail. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance continues to struggle with how the MCS that is currently across the Gulf coast states will eventually track as it moves to the ESE across the northern Gulf waters and nearby southeastern states along a baroclinic zone. Latest trends suggest that this complex should be on a gradual weakening trend by the time it approaches the Nature Coast by this evening but there should be enough instability in the offshore Gulf waters to sustain this feature for as it approaches our coastline. Thus, can't rule out a damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornado and/or waterspout threat for portions of the Nature Coast with this activity depending on how convection evolves so latest trends will continued to be monitored throughout the day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
The work week will start out quite a bit more humid compared to yesterday as deeper moisture returns. As the high pressure moves further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds increase as the gradient tightens. Rain chances also increase tomorrow as the sea breezes collide along the interior. Some storms developing along these boundaries could become severe as extra energy provided by mid-level impulses move over the area, supporting elevated CAPE values and effective bulk shear. With all these ingredients coming together, Storm prediction Center has placed portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. Main concern will be along the nature coast and the interior where sea breeze collisions are expected. Main threat will be for hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado.
Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves east scraping across northern portions of the peninsula. A surface low with accompanying this short wave is expected to move over the area bringing another round of showers and storms. SPC has also marked areas mainly north of I4 as a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, Tuesday and portions of Levy county and areas northward, Wednesday.
Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into Friday as ridging tries to build back over the area. Temperatures remain on the above average side, with highs in the low to mid 90s more most areas.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
VFR conditions will generally be in place through the remainder of the day but scattered showers and storms will develop across interior areas and this activity may be in close enough proximity to KLAL for some brief periods of restrictions. There will also be a line of showers and storms that approaches the area mainly north of Tampa Bay by this evening and should generally be on a weakening trend but some VCSH may be possible at Tampa Bay area terminals. Otherwise, patchy low stratus overnight may support a period of MVFR CIGs before VFR conditions return by Tuesday morning. However, forecast guidance does suggest that another thunderstorm complex may approach the area by Tuesday afternoon but forecast confidence is too low to include mention in current TAF issuance.
MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased SE winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday.
Increased winds will also support increased wave heights.
Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
No major fire weather concerns through the week as RH values remain above critical levels. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to move over portions of the CWA beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 79 88 / 40 40 40 70 FMY 77 94 79 92 / 10 10 10 40 GIF 74 95 76 90 / 40 40 30 70 SRQ 77 91 77 90 / 10 20 30 60 BKV 70 93 73 88 / 50 60 50 80 SPG 80 89 80 87 / 30 40 40 60
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL | 13 mi | 86 min | S 5.1G | 89°F | 85°F | 29.93 | ||
| VENF1 - Venice, FL | 30 mi | 104 min | SSE 16G | 82°F | 81°F | 29.92 | 78°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPGD PUNTA GORDA,FL | 12 sm | 51 min | SW 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 93°F | 72°F | 50% | 29.92 | |
| KFMY PAGE FIELD,FL | 16 sm | 51 min | SSW 09G17 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 91°F | 75°F | 59% | 29.90 | |
| KRSW SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTL,FL | 22 sm | 51 min | S 11 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 91°F | 73°F | 56% | 29.90 |
Pineland
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:55 AM EDT -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT 1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:55 AM EDT -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT 1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pineland, Pine Island, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Boca Grande Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT 1.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 11:01 AM EDT 0.75 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT 1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT 1.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 11:01 AM EDT 0.75 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT 1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.5 |
| 1 am |
| -0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -1 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -2 |
| 10 pm |
| -2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -2.2 |
Tampa Bay Area, FL,
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