Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Beach Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday August 20, 2017 11:25 AM EDT (15:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:36AMMoonset 6:12PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1019 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
.small craft should exercise caution around the gulf stream tonight...
Rest of today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to southeast 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1019 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis..Moderate east-southeast winds will continue over the local waters through the day, becoming fresh tonight and Monday with a moderate chop and seas up to 4 feet. A tropical wave moving over the region today, bringing scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms. After a break in the rain Monday, another tropical wave will bring scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds and seas may be locally higher near Thunderstorms.
Gulf stream hazards..East-southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots late tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 19, 2017 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 15 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 11 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Beach Shores, FL
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location: 26.77, -80.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 201441 aaa
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
1041 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Update
An opening round of atlantic convection has pushed ashore of the
east coast metropolitan area and weakened as it progressed inland.

The morning mfl sounding shows a very moist atmosphere with a
precipitable water value of 2.22 inches, supported by 2.18 inches
at key. The main threat today will continue to be potential
flooding from heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning. This
morning's soundings do not show an environment as conducive for
strong wind gusts compared to previous days, but gusts of 35 to 45
mph certainly cannot be ruled out with boundary collisions later
today. Current forecast captures this potential focus over the
interior and gulf coast well. No updates are currently planned,
with temperatures still appearing to be in line with the latest
guidance. Have a great Sunday!

Prev discussion issued 731 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
aviation...

convection associated with a tropical wave is moving across south
florida this morning, bringing MVFR and brief bouts of ifr to the
east coast terminals. Convection should spread north and west
today, with the potential to persist a good amount of the day.

Sub-vfr bouts will be possible with a need for short-fused
amendments through the day. Convection should begin to trend down
as the wave exits later this evening.

Prev discussion... Issued 416 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
discussion...

today and tonight: the axis of the first of our tropical waves is
moving into the southern peninsula early this morning. The
ongoing convection over the local atlantic and NW bahamas has
waned over the past few hours, leaving only isolated light showers
as we approach daybreak. This may potentially be due to ongoing
shear from the upper level low over the eastern gulf and or a
weaker tropical wave limiting low level convergence.

Models have fallen into two camps this morning, either backing
off on convective development through mid morning or ramping up
activity along the local atlantic and east coast right after
daybreak. While there has been a modest increase in light showers
in the past hour, have leaned towards the slower start based on
satellite radar trends.

Derived tpw satellite shows pwats of 2.2-2.3 inches encroaching
on the region, which should be firmly in place as we get on the
more convectively favored east side of the wave by mid morning.

Add some daytime heating, and expect rain to pick up across the
area later this morning. Don't foresee a significant flood threat
today, but given the anomalously moist environment, heavy rain
rates can't be ruled out as stronger convection develops. Expect
impacts to be limited to local flooding of streets and poor
drainage areas.

Showers with embedded storms will shift west later in the
afternoon as the wave tracks into the gulf, with activity waning
from east to west later today and drier conditions tonight.

Monday: no change in the forecast thinking as the work week and
eclipse day starts out with the driest day of the week. Wave vapor
satellite shows well the area of subsidence and dry air in the mid-
upper levels to our east in between the departing tropical wave from
today, and the next wave (invest 92l). There will still be enough
low level moisture for typical afternoon boundary layer cumulus, but
storm chances look isolated at best for most of the region. With
breezy east winds in place, the east coast sea breeze should be able
to get going and push pretty far inland, likely providing the main
focus for any isolated convection.

Overall partly cloudy skies look to be in place for the eclipse
Monday afternoon, though anyone in near any storms will see
mostly cloudy conditions. Cloud cover from the next tropical wave
begins to invade from the east during the late afternoon, but
there is a reasonable chance thick clouds and showers will hold
off until after sunset for east coast viewers.

Tuesday through the end of the week: weather for the middle of the
weak across south florida will still be driven by the arrival of
invest 92l, or its remnants, moving west across the region on
Tuesday. Conditions are only expected to be only marginally
favorable for this system to develop any further, and model trends
support this with a somewhat drier, and weaker feature as it
arrives. Satellite data shows pwats 2.1-2.3" pooled around this
feature currently, which models support arriving intact as it moves
into south florida. So even with perhaps a weaker wave, the return
of tropical moisture as we get on the back side of the wave will
bring a return of numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms for
tues and wed.

Pattern remains unsettled into late week as deep upper low over
canada drives digging trough through the eastern us, with an
associated frontal boundary sagging anomalously south into the
florida peninsula. With both the low and mid level ridge axis
suppressed to the south, we will be under south-southwesterly flow
that will continue to tap into the tropical airmass to our south.

Numerous showers and scattered storms can be expected through the
period, likely with a diurnal maximum.

Given the potential for several days of active weather in a
tropical airmass, this period will need to be watched for local
flooding problems.

Marine... High pressure to our north will keep prevailing east-
southeast flow in place over the local waters through mid week.

Multiple tropical waves passing through the region will maintain
generally moderate speeds, with fresh winds possible at time
starting late tonight through Monday night, requiring small craft to
exercise caution.

The increase in speeds will bring an increase in wave heights,
building to around 4 feet over the open waters tonight through
Monday night, before gradually decreasing mid week as winds decrease.

Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms over the waters
through today as a tropical wave crosses the region. Coverage will
briefly be lower on Monday, before increasing again Tuesday onwards
with the next tropical wave and an unsettled pattern.

Beach forecast... An increase in east-southeast flow early this week
will raise the rip current threat at the atlantic beaches through
Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 89 81 93 81 60 20 20 30
fort lauderdale 89 82 91 81 60 20 20 40
miami 89 81 92 80 60 10 20 30
naples 92 77 96 79 60 20 20 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 02 rag
discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 11 mi38 min SE 9.9 G 12
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 47 mi26 min N 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 1017.4 hPa (+1.4)75°F
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 56 mi26 min W 1.9 G 4.1 85°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL8 mi33 minSSE 87.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain78°F75°F90%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E8NE9
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1 day agoE8E9E11SE13E13SE12SE11
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2 days agoE6E9E11E10E9SE12E13SE10SE6SE4SE3SE4SE3CalmSE5SE6SE6SE5CalmNW3NW5CalmE65

Tide / Current Tables for Port of Palm Beach, Lake Worth, Florida
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Port of Palm Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.20.20.71.32.12.83.33.332.21.30.4-0.2-0.4-00.71.52.43.13.53.42.92.1

Tide / Current Tables for Donald Ross Bridge, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Donald Ross Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.40.10.20.51.21.92.52.82.72.31.70.90.2-0.2-0.300.61.52.22.832.82.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.