Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:22 PM   Moonset 1:12 AM

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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1001 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late in the evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Thu - W winds around 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - W nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S in the evening. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. Sat and Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. A slight chance of showers and tstms late in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis -
hazardous marine conditions will continue across the atlantic waters as a fresh to strong southerly wind flow becomes southwesterly later today. These winds will slowly decrease heading into late week. Across the gulf, a moderate to fresh south southwesterly wind flow will continue into late week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day.
gulf stream hazards: south to southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through today.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 12 utc - .
9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 151353 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 953 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 942 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The current forecast remains on track with a few showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly for northern counties and along the Atlantic coast. Some of the storms could become marginally severe, which coincides with the Marginal Risk for severe weather issued by the Storm Prediction Center which covers parts of Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry and far northern Collier counties. The primary hazards with any storms will be periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds that could reach severe level.
Temperatures will continue to be on the hot side in the low 90s for the west coast and mid to upper 90s along the east coast. With dew points also elevated, triple digit heat indices will occur with potential for a short-fused Heat Advisory. This potential is mainly for Miami-Dade county, but won't be ruled out for other counties.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A frontal boundary spurred forward by a southern stream mid-level trough could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased shower and thunderstorm chances. The weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat but the available moisture, cooler air aloft, and lift from sea breeze boundaries and collisions could again allow for some stout convection on Wednesday at the least.

Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -8 deg C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the Lake Okeechobee region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A mitigating factor for more widespread convection south of the Lake Okeechobee region is the presence of the low level jet and other supporting dynamics aloft remaining either in northern or central Florida on Wednesday. The trough axis should enter the Atlantic by Thursday though some southward amplification is possible which will need to be monitored in case it provides support for additional stout convection on Thursday coincident with peak heating though mid-level temperatures may warm a degree or two for Thursday compared to earlier days.

Surface temperatures and dewpoints will continue to run on the warm side with heat index values in the triple digits each day.
Significant portions of the east coast metropolitan areas could flirt with 104 to 108 degree heat index values on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons which could necessitate a Heat Advisory for some areas. Things are not much better in Southwest Florida where 100 to 106 degree heat index values are widespread. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended exposure to the outdoors during the peak heating of the day and anyone partaking in outdoor activities or labor should ensure to take cooling rest breaks and remain hydrated.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra support to push the boundary through the area to close out the extended forecast period early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds early this morning will increase out of the SW by late morning across all terminals, and will be gusty at times through the afternoon hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity may increase late in the afternoon mainly near KAPF and KPBI as a weakening frontal boundary approaches from the

MARINE
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Advisory level wind flow will become southwesterly and remain elevated as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing through the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should continue into the end of the week until the low completely passes.

BEACHES
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues.
The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 95 79 95 77 / 40 30 60 10 West Kendall 96 76 96 74 / 30 30 50 0 Opa-Locka 96 79 96 76 / 40 30 60 10 Homestead 94 79 94 76 / 30 40 50 10 Fort Lauderdale 94 79 93 76 / 50 30 70 10 N Ft Lauderdale 95 79 94 76 / 50 30 70 10 Pembroke Pines 97 79 97 77 / 40 30 60 10 West Palm Beach 95 76 93 73 / 50 40 70 10 Boca Raton 96 77 95 75 / 50 40 70 10 Naples 90 79 90 77 / 30 30 40 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

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Fort Myers
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Wed -- 02:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
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