Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 7:26 AM   Moonset 10:06 PM

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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 415 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and north 1 foot at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Saturday - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northwest 2 feet at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 11 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 102006 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 406 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorm through this evening

With an unstable air mass (CAPE around 3,000 J/kg) ahead of an approaching front, there is a low chance for thunderstorms to develop across the northern half of the CWA If thunderstorms are able to develop and become severe, the primary hazards will be gusty winds and small hail. As we lose daytime heating this evening into tonight, the severe threat is expected to wind down. Models continue to show the front pushing through Central Florida tonight around midnight with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing along the front. Drier air will quickly filter into the region late tonight into tomorrow as PWAT drop to near 1" across the northern half of the CWA, which ranks in the lower 10% of climatology.
Meanwhile, the southern half of the CWA will remain moist as the dry air struggles to make its way down the peninsula (PWAT near 1.5"; 75% of climatology).

Despite the passage of the front tonight, relief from the daytime highs in the 90s is not expected, however, heat indices (feels like temperatures) will be about 8-10 degrees lower tomorrow compared to today across the the northern half of the CWA Across the southern half where above normal moisture is expected to remain, heat indices will remain in the triple digits with heat indices peaking near 102 degrees with a moderate risk of heat-related impacts. The most significant impact from this cold front will be overnight temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 60s tomorrow night.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)

Key Messages:

▶ Increasing showers and thunderstorm chances into the middle of next week, greatest chances Tuesday through Wednesday, threat of strong to severe storms

▶ Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Orange County southward Monday through Thursday next week

The new week begins with weak surface northeasterly flow and temperatures from the mid 60s to around 70 early Sunday morning.
Moisture will stay below normal through Sunday morning keeping rain- free conditions intact, then increase heading into the work week as southeasterly flow returns Sunday night. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday due to PVA from 700-500mb disturbances riding the mid-level ridge. Sunday's highs from the mid 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland.

Moisture increases to above normal (PWATs > 1.75") Monday along with over 90th percentile IVT to allow for a low to medium (30-40%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Dewpoints climbing back to around 70 Monday afternoon along with temperatures around 90 will lead to an increasing risk of heat-related impacts that will persist through the work week.

Rain chances will increase through the middle of next week as a trough pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Ocean from Tuesday through Wednesday night. This time frame will be our greatest chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms, south to north respectively, along with the threat of strong to severe storms. Model agreement is best over the northern half of Florida where conditions will be most favorable for convection due to the proximity of the sub-tropical jet and mid-level PVA as the trough progresses eastward. Both the GEFS and ECENS probs of CAPE > 1000 J/kg is at least 60% over the CWA with GFS soundings indicating effective shear around 40 knots and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the EPS CAPE/SHEAR EFIs remain high from 0.7 to 0.95, indicating a very unusual or extreme weather scenario is likely. Surface winds shift southwesterly Tuesday and continue through Thursday as the reflecting surface low moves into the eastern CONUS and Atlantic.

Rain chances diminish Wednesday night as the trough shifts east into the Atlantic. A low to medium (30-40%) chance will continue during the day Thursday and Friday due to well above normal moisture and shortwave disturbances extending over Florida on the tail-end of the trough and another approaching mid-level trough from the west as we head into next weekend.

MARINE
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Weak to moderate south to southwesterly flow will continue this evening before shifting to the north tonight after midnight in the wake of the cold front. Weak winds around 10 knots are expected across the local waters Saturday into Saturday night. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight across the Atlantic waters with rain chances quickly tapering off morning into the afternoon hours from north to south. Weak northeasterly winds Sunday will shift southeasterly Sunday night and strengthen to 15-20 knots Monday afternoon. Moderate southeasterly winds will shift southwesterly Tuesday night and continue through the middle of next week. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, increasing to 40 to 60 percent through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 86 67 84 / 30 0 0 0 MCO 74 93 67 91 / 30 10 0 0 MLB 73 88 70 85 / 30 10 0 0 VRB 71 91 69 87 / 20 20 0 10 LEE 73 91 67 90 / 30 0 0 0 SFB 73 92 67 90 / 30 0 0 0 ORL 74 93 69 90 / 30 10 0 0 FPR 71 91 68 87 / 20 30 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159- 254-259.

AM...None.

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Hobe Sound
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:07 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hobe Sound, Jupiter Island, Florida, Tide feet

A1A highway bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:25 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:43 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

A1A highway bridge, Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

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