Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:37PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:31 PM EST (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 1022 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
This afternoon..East winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..West winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northwest around 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming northeast around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1022 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..Atlantic high pressure across florida to the gulf of mexico slides southward through tonight then exits east Sunday as a cold front moves into northern florida. The front tracks down the state during Sunday and slips south of the florida keys early Monday. High pressure behind the front builds in across the gulf region and treks east to the atlantic by midweek...allowing the front to lift north from the keys. Winds shift with the frontal passage and reach cautionary to advisory speeds but gradually subside as the high builds in then moves east.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, FL
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location: 27.22, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 181913
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
213 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Increasing winds on gulf waters starting Sunday...

Short term (remainder of today - Sunday)
Aloft - ridging centered south of the baja peninsula sprawled east to
fl while a low on the west shore of hudson bay troughed down to the
southern plains. Surface - a frontal system stretched from the great
lakes to south tx. High pressure in the atlantic near 35 north
latitude 70 west longitude reached across fl to most of the gulf
of mexico. During the rest of the weekend the upper trough pivots
to the eastern seaboard as the ridge drops south of the state. As
a result the front crosses the deep south and reaches southern fl
by the end of the day. The surface high pressure eases southward
then shifts eastward sun.

This afternoon and overnight will continue dry under a few clouds.

There could be some late night patchy ground fog but not enough to
carry in the forecasts... Although this may be a limited aviation
issue. The front and associated weather reach the far north around
sunrise with increasing clouds and isolated to scattered showers.

These clouds and showers reach tampa bay by late morning then shift
to areas south of there by early afternoon. The bulk of the energy
with the upper troughs sweeps through the mid-atlantic states and
the front moves across the area with a narrow swath of deeper
moisture... Model pwat values run as high as 1.8 inches... That
erodes away moving down the the state. Therefore expect the front
to weaken with shower chances diminishing from north to south on
sun. Lows tonight will be a few degrees above normal but then the
highs Sun cool to near normal... With the most noticeable
difference in the north.

Mid term long term (Sunday night-Saturday)
Mid upper level trough will be moving out into the western atlantic
ocean Sunday night and Monday quickly followed by another deeper
trough developing Tuesday over the eastern half of the conus. The
trough will potentially cutoff over the deep south Wednesday into
Thursday then lift out to the northeast late in the week. At the
surface, a cool front will exit the forecast area Sunday evening
with high pressure moving across the southeast states Sunday night
and Monday bringing fair dry weather. The high will move well out
into the atlantic ocean Tuesday with the front that moved south of
the region Sunday night lifting back north as a warm front leading
to increasing clouds and a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms late Monday night and Tuesday. During midweek the
global models are developing a weak area of low pressure in the
central gulf as the trough deepens which then drifts east northeast
across the southeast states florida peninsula late in the week. The
exact timing and strength of this system varies a lot in the models,
but it does look like clouds and a chance of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms will continue for Wednesday into at least
thanksgiving day, and possibly Friday if the ECMWF is correct. High
pressure should return by next weekend bringing a return to fair dry
weather.

Aviation
18 18z tafs. Skc to few CU ci this afternoon with... Or becoming... S to
sw winds. Winds diminish as they back over night under skc... But with
limited br expected at lal pgd. Approaching cold front will bring
increasing clouds and vcnty shra aft 14z at tpa pie lal but byd
19 18z for the terminals to the south. Winds pick up and shift
with the arrival of the front.

Marine
Main concern will be the front tracking south over the waters
during Sun with winds increasing to around 20 knots behind it.

These begin in the northern waters Sun morning then spread
south... Generally for the outer waters. Small craft advisories
most likely will be issued by sunrise sun. High pressure builds in
behind the front and tracks east with winds diminishing and
shifting through midweek. During the last half of the week low
pressure may form in the gulf and could impact the forecasts for
that period.

Fire weather
Little significant dry air follows the front plus winds turn fairly
quickly to northeast and east... Helping to maintain low level
moist... So no low rh concerns area expected. There may be some
patchy ground fog later tonight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 66 76 52 76 0 30 0 0
fmy 63 81 59 78 0 10 10 0
gif 60 77 50 75 0 40 10 0
srq 65 77 53 77 10 40 10 0
bkv 60 75 45 75 0 40 0 0
spg 66 76 53 75 0 40 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 09 rude
mid term long term decision support... 69 close


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VENF1 - Venice, FL 36 mi31 min WSW 8 G 8.9 75°F 73°F1014.6 hPa (-2.6)60°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL23 mi38 minVar 410.00 miFair82°F54°F38%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from PGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10
G20
E7NE5CalmE3NE5E6NE5NE5E5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3E4SE6E8CalmS44
1 day agoNE73N4N5NE7NE6NE5E6E5NE6NE6N4N6NE9N8NE8NE8NE9NE10NE14NE10
G18
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2 days agoN8N9N8N7N7N8NE5NE6NE8N8NE6NE7NE6NE9NE10NE9N7N12N5N9NE9NE6N8NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Peace River, Florida
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Shell Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:24 AM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:41 PM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.92.12.11.91.61.30.90.50.1-0.1-0.10.20.50.91.21.41.51.41.31.21.11.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Peace River, Charlotte Harbor, Florida
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Shell Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:25 AM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.722.22.121.71.30.80.40.1-0.1-0.10.10.50.91.21.41.51.41.31.21.11.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.