Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Breeze Park, FL
May 14, 2024 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:22 AM Moonset 12:33 AM |
AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 335 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
This afternoon - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. A chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A chance of showers this afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms late.
Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thursday - West winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon and evening, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and east 1 foot at 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and north 1 foot at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 142013 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 413 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Current-Tonight...The strong storms across the north/central sections earlier have long pushed well offshore and the debris cloudiness has diminished allowing reheating. But do not see anything imminent that would spark additional convection through the evening there. While no severe weather was reported, there were a number of classic tree cleaners, storms containing 45-55 mph wind gusts. Isolated sea breeze storms will develop near the coast south of the Cape and around Lake Okeechobee through the early evening. Will need to watch these storms for isolated severe potential into early evening. The next convective cluster seen on hi-res sat over the northern Gulf will reach north FL overnight and could bring a strong/marginal severe threat to northern areas before sunrise.
Wed...Scattered lightning storms will redevelop during the morning ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Conditions will be favorable for another round of strong to severe storms that could begin even earlier than today. Convection should initiate along the differential heating boundary between the debris canopy and sfc heating and develop E/SE from there. Strong mid level flow and cold temps aloft look to produce a better chance for severe storms from mid morning through mid aftn. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary threats with a few tornadoes possible.
Think a watch box (probably a Tornado watch) is more likely tomorrow than it was today for much of EC FL. Max temps should hold in the mid to upper 80s Orlando northward but reach the mid 90s across the south prior to onset of convection.
Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridging is forecast to set up over the Florida peninsula late this week, with the lingering weak front remaining draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County area on Thursday. A plume of moisture will remain situated over this area, with isolated to scattered showers possible. Model guidance does not currently indicate large support for severe storm development, especially with decreasing offshore flow aloft and warming 500 mb temperatures, but some modest instability may be enough to kick off a few isolated strong storms across southern portions of the forecast area. North of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee area, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry as a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch filters in, though a few stray showers still cannot be ruled out across Brevard and Osceola counties. Decided to further decrease PoPs with this forecast package based on model guidance and increasing confidence that the front will sit a bit further south than previously thought. Any showers and storms that do develop will move offshore across the local Atlantic waters and diminish into the overnight hours.
By Friday, the boundary is forecast to lift northward across east central Florida as a weak warm front. Guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated showers and storms, due to the modest moisture return associated with the front. As a result, kept PoPs around 20 percent for now across east central Florida, but would not be surprised if this continues to trend lower, especially if the Euro trends more towards the GFS (the drier solution). Any activity that develops is expected to diminish during the evening and overnight hours.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across east central Florida through the end of the work week, with highs climbing into the 90s both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Heat indices in some areas may reach to right around 100. Overnight temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to continue increasing across the peninsula this weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts eastward out over the Atlantic. Troughing aloft accompanied by a surface low and its attendant cold front will move towards the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with the front expected to move south of the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. The GFS continues to indicate a cleaner frontal passage compared to the Euro. Model discrepancies continue into Tuesday, with the Euro indicating drier conditions than the GFS. In general, stuck with the NBM as a good middle ground between the models, with PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent range this weekend into early next week. Isolated storms will also be possible. The heat will persist across the peninsula, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Saturday could be particularly toasty, with some areas south of the Orlando metro climbing into the upper 90s and heat indices reaching the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Isolated sea breeze storms may affect MLB-SUA through 00Z or so.
MVFR CIGs are possible in south to southwest flow 7-10 knots overnight. Winds will increase quickly after sunrise 15-20 knots gusting 25 knots. A high coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected Wed, possibly starting pre-dawn. Have utilized the VC term for now, but TEMPO groups will likely be needed. Wind gusts of 35 knots or greater will affect some terminals.
MARINE
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Tonight/Wed...Will continue the marginal SCA across the offshore waters tonight for S/SE winds up to 20 knots and a Caution for the BRevard and Treasure coast nearshore waters. AN even earlier onset of storms is forecast Wednesday, many strong and some severe pushing offshore. Seas 3-4 FT, up to 5 FT offshore.
Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions are forecast to remain generally favorable late this week into the weekend across the local Atlantic waters. Offshore winds 10 to 15 knots on Thursday will veer to out of the southeast on Friday, becoming southerly to southwesterly Saturday and Sunday. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period, with some portions of the offshore waters potentially reaching 4 feet at times. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible across the local waters, with storms expected to move offshore.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Wed...High coverage of showers and storms will keep min RH values above critical levels but gusty W/SW winds around 30 mph will occur.
Thursday-Sunday...A weakening frontal boundary will remain draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee region on Thursday, with drier air filtering in across areas northward. As a result, sensitive fire weather conditions will be possible across east central Florida, with minimum RH values falling to around 35 to 40 percent and westerly winds nearing 15 mph. The boundary will then lift northward Friday as a warm front, with moisture gradually increasing across the area through the weekend. Winds are also forecast to diminish slightly, falling to around 10 mph out of the south-southeast. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each afternoon, especially this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 87 69 91 / 50 70 10 0 MCO 74 87 71 92 / 40 70 20 10 MLB 72 90 72 90 / 20 70 30 20 VRB 72 94 72 93 / 10 70 40 20 LEE 74 85 72 90 / 60 70 20 0 SFB 74 87 72 92 / 50 70 20 10 ORL 74 87 73 92 / 40 70 20 10 FPR 72 94 71 93 / 10 60 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 413 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Current-Tonight...The strong storms across the north/central sections earlier have long pushed well offshore and the debris cloudiness has diminished allowing reheating. But do not see anything imminent that would spark additional convection through the evening there. While no severe weather was reported, there were a number of classic tree cleaners, storms containing 45-55 mph wind gusts. Isolated sea breeze storms will develop near the coast south of the Cape and around Lake Okeechobee through the early evening. Will need to watch these storms for isolated severe potential into early evening. The next convective cluster seen on hi-res sat over the northern Gulf will reach north FL overnight and could bring a strong/marginal severe threat to northern areas before sunrise.
Wed...Scattered lightning storms will redevelop during the morning ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Conditions will be favorable for another round of strong to severe storms that could begin even earlier than today. Convection should initiate along the differential heating boundary between the debris canopy and sfc heating and develop E/SE from there. Strong mid level flow and cold temps aloft look to produce a better chance for severe storms from mid morning through mid aftn. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary threats with a few tornadoes possible.
Think a watch box (probably a Tornado watch) is more likely tomorrow than it was today for much of EC FL. Max temps should hold in the mid to upper 80s Orlando northward but reach the mid 90s across the south prior to onset of convection.
Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridging is forecast to set up over the Florida peninsula late this week, with the lingering weak front remaining draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County area on Thursday. A plume of moisture will remain situated over this area, with isolated to scattered showers possible. Model guidance does not currently indicate large support for severe storm development, especially with decreasing offshore flow aloft and warming 500 mb temperatures, but some modest instability may be enough to kick off a few isolated strong storms across southern portions of the forecast area. North of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee area, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry as a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch filters in, though a few stray showers still cannot be ruled out across Brevard and Osceola counties. Decided to further decrease PoPs with this forecast package based on model guidance and increasing confidence that the front will sit a bit further south than previously thought. Any showers and storms that do develop will move offshore across the local Atlantic waters and diminish into the overnight hours.
By Friday, the boundary is forecast to lift northward across east central Florida as a weak warm front. Guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated showers and storms, due to the modest moisture return associated with the front. As a result, kept PoPs around 20 percent for now across east central Florida, but would not be surprised if this continues to trend lower, especially if the Euro trends more towards the GFS (the drier solution). Any activity that develops is expected to diminish during the evening and overnight hours.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across east central Florida through the end of the work week, with highs climbing into the 90s both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Heat indices in some areas may reach to right around 100. Overnight temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to continue increasing across the peninsula this weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts eastward out over the Atlantic. Troughing aloft accompanied by a surface low and its attendant cold front will move towards the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with the front expected to move south of the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. The GFS continues to indicate a cleaner frontal passage compared to the Euro. Model discrepancies continue into Tuesday, with the Euro indicating drier conditions than the GFS. In general, stuck with the NBM as a good middle ground between the models, with PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent range this weekend into early next week. Isolated storms will also be possible. The heat will persist across the peninsula, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Saturday could be particularly toasty, with some areas south of the Orlando metro climbing into the upper 90s and heat indices reaching the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Isolated sea breeze storms may affect MLB-SUA through 00Z or so.
MVFR CIGs are possible in south to southwest flow 7-10 knots overnight. Winds will increase quickly after sunrise 15-20 knots gusting 25 knots. A high coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected Wed, possibly starting pre-dawn. Have utilized the VC term for now, but TEMPO groups will likely be needed. Wind gusts of 35 knots or greater will affect some terminals.
MARINE
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Tonight/Wed...Will continue the marginal SCA across the offshore waters tonight for S/SE winds up to 20 knots and a Caution for the BRevard and Treasure coast nearshore waters. AN even earlier onset of storms is forecast Wednesday, many strong and some severe pushing offshore. Seas 3-4 FT, up to 5 FT offshore.
Thursday-Sunday...Boating conditions are forecast to remain generally favorable late this week into the weekend across the local Atlantic waters. Offshore winds 10 to 15 knots on Thursday will veer to out of the southeast on Friday, becoming southerly to southwesterly Saturday and Sunday. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period, with some portions of the offshore waters potentially reaching 4 feet at times. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible across the local waters, with storms expected to move offshore.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Wed...High coverage of showers and storms will keep min RH values above critical levels but gusty W/SW winds around 30 mph will occur.
Thursday-Sunday...A weakening frontal boundary will remain draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee region on Thursday, with drier air filtering in across areas northward. As a result, sensitive fire weather conditions will be possible across east central Florida, with minimum RH values falling to around 35 to 40 percent and westerly winds nearing 15 mph. The boundary will then lift northward Friday as a warm front, with moisture gradually increasing across the area through the weekend. Winds are also forecast to diminish slightly, falling to around 10 mph out of the south-southeast. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each afternoon, especially this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 87 69 91 / 50 70 10 0 MCO 74 87 71 92 / 40 70 20 10 MLB 72 90 72 90 / 20 70 30 20 VRB 72 94 72 93 / 10 70 40 20 LEE 74 85 72 90 / 60 70 20 0 SFB 74 87 72 92 / 50 70 20 10 ORL 74 87 73 92 / 40 70 20 10 FPR 72 94 71 93 / 10 60 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) | 22 mi | 60 min | 78°F | 3 ft | ||||
| LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL | 44 mi | 56 min | S 19G | 83°F | 83°F | 29.92 | ||
| SIPF1 | 45 mi | 41 min | 15 | 79°F | 79°F | 29.83 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSUA WITHAM FIELD,FL | 4 sm | 38 min | SE 16G24 | 5 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 88°F | 75°F | 66% | 29.89 |
| KFPR TREASURE COAST INTL,FL | 20 sm | 32 min | S 14 | 10 sm | Clear | 91°F | 73°F | 56% | 29.87 |
Jensen Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT 1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT 0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:28 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT 1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT 0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:28 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jensen Beach, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Great Pocket
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 AM EDT 1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:52 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:25 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 AM EDT 1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:52 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:25 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Great Pocket, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Melbourne, FL,
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