Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North River Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:53PM Monday August 21, 2017 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 7:00PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 344 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 344 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge will remain north of the waters through mid week. This will result in a prevailing onshore breeze which freshens a bit early in the week. The onshore flow will bring a few periods of scattered showers and storms over the atlantic waters through the middle of the week. The ridge will shift back to the south late in the week, which will produce a south to southwest wind flow and promote offshore moving storms in the afternoon.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday august 20th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North River Shores, FL
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location: 27.24, -80.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 211843
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
243 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Discussion
Current-tonight... Deep layer ridging north of ecfl is providing
deep, light onshore flow across the region. As drier air draws into
the area from the southeast the local hrrr model shows wdly sct
convection from near kmco northward for the remainder of this
afternoon. Most areas will stay dry, however, as temperatures aloft
remain relatively warm. As pwat values sink to between 1.30-1.50
inches across the coverage warning area into this evening, another
weak inverted tropical trough will approach from the southeast.

Increasing deep layer moisture will begin very late overnight across
the treasure coast with the potential for showers to return here
before sunrise Tue morning. Winds will fall light variable to calm
tonight with lows generally in the 70s areawide.

Tue-tue night... Approaching inverted trough axis will move into the
southern peninsula. A fairly tight moisture gradient will develop
over the cwa; pwats in excess of 2 inches southward and 1.30-1.50
inches northward. This, in turn, will create a likely tight pop
gradient as well. Higher pops (50pct) over the deep south will taper
back to 20pct near north of i-4. The resultant onshore, moist flow
will keep convection active Tue night with trough moisture axis
along the treasure coast and adjacent coastal waters. May have to
watch for heavy rainfall potential along the immediate coast should
any banding set up here. Lower rain chances Tue night northward and
further into the interior. Highs will reach around 90 across the
south and 92-94 across the NRN interior.

Previous extended forecast discussion (slightly modified)...

Wednesday... Deep tropical moisture will remain across central and
south fl into the day on Wed with the low level easterly wave axis
across west central fl. This will spell low level s-se flow on the
east side of the axis and very deep moisture with pwats to 2.0 to
2.3 inches across the SRN half of east central fl. Will have pops
from 50-60 percent across the south and generally 30-40 percent
across NRN sections. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Highs
around 90 south to mid 90s NRN interior.

Thursday... A deep southerly flow of air from the tropics and high
moisture levels with pwat values to 2.0-2.3 inches will continue to
spell high rain chances into thu. Will have pops in the chance to
likely range from 50-60 percent for southern areas with the risk for
locally heavy rainfall. 40 to 50 percent for northern areas. Will
see considerable cloudiness in the morning becoming mostly cloudy
into the afternoon. Highs upper 80s south to around 90 lower 90s
north.

Fri-sun... Exact forecast details into the weekend become less
certain with the evolution of a digging mid latitude trough along
the southeast atlantic seaboard and the medium potential for
tropical development near fl early in the weekend per latest
tropical weather outlook from nhc. ECMWF develops low pressure
associated with the mid latitude trough while GFS indicates
potential low pressure development near or east of the old tropical
wave that will linger near the area into late week. Both scenarios
show high moisture levels across the area with low pressure moving
away to the northeast through the latter part of the weekend. Main
concern at this point will be the potential for locally heavy rain
with scattered to numerous showers storms Friday and Saturday before
rain chances lower to scattered range Sunday with lowering of deep
moisture across the area and developing low level onshore flow from
the northeast. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the
70s for the upcoming weekend.

Aviation PrimarilyVFR. Drier air continues to build in from the
southeast with only a few showers storms this afternoon mainly to
the west and north of i-4. Some model guidance is hinting at some
low clouds (around 1000-1500 ft agl) in the overnight and early
morning on Tuesday but confidence is low. Believe the best chance
for any MVFR ceilings will be from mlb-sua as moisture begins to
increase in the overnight. Some showers will also be possible from
mlb-sua during the overnight and early morning with a few
thunderstorms toward late morning.

Marine Afternoon-tonight... The surface high pressure ridge axis
will continue to promote an onshore wind flow. Wind speeds generally
around 10 kts, except 15 knots over the gulf stream south of
sebastian inlet. Seas will build 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft well
offshore through the period. Drier deep layer air moving across the
waters this afternoon evening will be replaced by increasing
moisture from the south late tonight as another inverted tropical
trough approaches. Scattered showers isolated storms possible for
our southern zones after midnight and towards daybreak.

Tue-tue night... The easterly wave axis will move northwest into the
local coastal waters. Generally erly winds (ene-ese) 10-15 kts
during the day with winds veering more SE S in the evening and
overnight depending on exact position of the trough axis. Seas 3-4
ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore. An increasing threat for
showers storms, especially CAPE southward.

Previous extended marine forecast discussion...

wed... The easterly wave will move slowly west of the area with
southeast winds to 10-15 knots. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms and seas to 3-4 ft.

Thu-fri... Southerly flow into late week expected with a higher than
normal coverage of showers storms through the period with deep
tropical moisture lingering over the area. Seas generally 2-3 ft
near shore and 3-4 ft offshore.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 75 91 75 93 10 20 10 20
mco 74 95 76 96 10 20 10 20
mlb 79 92 78 91 10 30 20 50
vrb 77 91 75 91 20 40 30 60
lee 76 95 78 96 10 20 0 20
sfb 75 95 77 96 10 20 10 20
orl 75 95 78 96 10 20 10 20
fpr 79 91 75 90 20 40 30 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Sedlock blottman combs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 22 mi37 min 84°F3 ft
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi49 min ENE 15 G 17
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 79 mi37 min ENE 18 G 21 86°F 1018.4 hPa (+0.8)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 80 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 7 84°F 1018.3 hPa76°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL6 mi50 minE 67.00 miClear84°F77°F79%1019.6 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL18 mi44 minE 510.00 miFair82°F77°F85%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E7E6E5NE3NE3CalmCalmSE5SE7E8E8E10E10E10E10SE7SE7SE10SE10E10E8E6E6
1 day ago--SE5SE3SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--------------------------
2 days agoCalmSW3W4W4CalmSE4S4W4CalmNW6NW6NW4NW4CalmE5E5--NE10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:22 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.80.50.2000.20.50.81.11.31.31.10.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.611.3

Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:57 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:23 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:55 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.210.80.50.20-00.10.40.71.11.21.21.10.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.10.50.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.