Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
North River Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday June 23, 2018 5:10 PM EDT (21:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:27PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 348 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..East to southeast winds 5 knots becoming west towards daybreak. Seas 1 foot with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Variable morning winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 348 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis..The axis of the atlantic high pressure ridge will remain south of the local waters through tonight before drifting slowly northward across central florida early next week. Benign sea conditions will continue at least through the middle of next week, though the treasure coast waters may see short wave periods due to the lee-side shadow of the northern bahamas. A few stronger storms are possible late today, mainly along the immediate coast and over the intracoastal waterway.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday june 23rd. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North River Shores, FL
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location: 27.24, -80.31     debug

Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 231916
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
316 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Few strong storms possible again late today across east central

current-tonight... The surface ridge axis over the fl straits remains
forecast to lift northward toward south-central fl through late
tonight. As this occurs the associated high center will travel
northward parallel to the western fl coast over the eastern gulf.

The 915 mhz CAPE wind profilers show veering of the light winds
toward the northwest. Mid-level winds remain fairly light and are
forecast to veer to northwest north late today this evening. This
may allow for future storms today to zipper southward down the ecsb.

The latest 17z kxmr sounding has came in with a pwat of 1.93 inches
and 700 500 mb temperatures of +9.9c -6.8c respectively.

The ecsb has developed and is venturing slowly inland and will push
deeper inland than recent days due to the weaker opposing flow.

Current radar activity will continue to increase in coverage with
further boundary collisions. Some late afternoon outflows pushing
towards the ecsb will prompt pulse strong storms just inland from
the coast and eventually further into the interior with larger
outflow sea breeze boundary collisions. Convective precip debris
will slowly dissipate during the evening.

Mariners on inland lakes as well as the intracoastal near shore
atlantic waters will need to keep an eye to the sky westward for
developing approaching storms. Yet, another reminder that lightning
can strike at least 10 miles away from the parent thunderstorm. Will
go with a pre-first period wording for pops for next zfp issuance.

Expect 30-40pct north of i-4 with increasing numbers to 60-70pct
southward from here for late day early evening convective fireworks.

Main threats continue to be torrential downpours, frequent cloud to
ground water lightning, small hail, and gusty winds to around 50
mph. Local ponding of water (temporary) on roadways may lead to
nuisance flooding, especially in areas that have seen abundant
rainfall recently.

Cloud debris will thin again through late evening overnight.

Overnight mins forecast well into the 70s with conditions humid.

Previous extended forecast discussion...

sun-mon... Bermuda ridge axis will lift into north fl as a storm
system over the great lakes oh river valley pushes acrs new england
and the canadian maritimes. S SE mean flow will prevail thru the
h100-h70 lyr, E SE thru the h85-h50 lyr, though close proximity to
the ridge axis will limit wind speeds to arnd 10kts. The easterly
winds will promote an early formation of the east coast sea breeze
while focusing diurnal precip over the west half of the peninsula.

Latest analysis of the SW atlc shows respectable amounts of moisture
over the bahamas on the backside of a low amp easterly wave... Btwn
70-80pct thru the h100-h70 lyr, and btwn 50-60pct thru the h85-h50
lyr. Higher precip chances on Sun as the easterly wave pushes acrs
the fl peninsula... Early formation of the east coast sea breeze will
drop precip chances along the coast to AOB 50pct, while higher
heating potential inland will keep pops over the interior counties
arnd 60pct. Lower instability on Mon as the easterly wave dampens
out over the ERN gomex, but sufficient moisture remaining over the
lake-o region to keep pops arnd 60pct... Coastal and i-4 corridor
pops dropping to AOB 40pct.

Little change in temps as the source region remains the same... Aftn
maxes in the u80s l90s, mrng mins in the l m70s.

Tue-fri... High pres building out of south central canada will drop
into the mid atlc region then off the mid atlc coast thru midweek.

As it does, it will push a weak frontal trof into the deep south,
weakening or even collapsing the WRN flank of the bermuda ridge. The
resulting pgrad will be quite weak, resulting in light and variable
winds thru the h100-h70 lyr. While the front itself is expected to
wash out before reaching central fl, gfs ECMWF models are hinting at
a weak mid lvl trof dvlpg in tandem with the front over the fl
peninsula by midweek that would produce a westerly steering
component. No sig change in available moisture appear on the
horizon, though the increasing wrly flow by Wed will peg the east fl
coast with likely pops. Otherwise, precip pattern looks fairly
typical for late june with sct diurnal tsras thru the week.

Aviation Thunderstorms will continue to develop along the east
coast sea breeze and impact terminals from kmlb-ksua through
approximately 23 21z-22z. Additional storms will develop from
osceola okeechobee counties eastward as numerous outflow boundaries
and the east coast sea breeze collide. The east coast sea breeze is
slower with its inland progression in the northern brevard orlando
metro areas, so tempo groups for kmco ksfb kism ktix reflect storm
impacts later in the afternoon evening. Also, did not include any
tempo groups for klee and kdab as drier air over those locations
will limit deep convection, still will monitor radar trends in case
any strong storms manage to develop. Showers light rain will linger
from kmco kism ksfb to ktix kmlb through approximately 24 02z.

Overnight,VFR conditions will prevail, and another round of
showers storms is expected for Sunday afternoon across much of the

Marine Surface ridge axis over the fl straits remains forecast to
lift slowly toward the south-central fl peninsula over the next 24
hours. The associated high pressure cell will also advance northward
parallel to the west fl coast over the eastern gulf. Surface winds
continue to veer this afternoon toward the N NE and eventually e.

The has developed a little quicker today (earlier southward) and is
currently moving inland. The light westerly storm steering flow will
continue to veer through the afternoon to out of the NW and
eventually n. A few cells could still affect the intracoastal and
near shore atlc waters this afternoon evening with heaviest
concentration south from the CAPE and greatest timing late
afternoon early evening.

Torrential downpours, small hail, frequent cloud to water lightning,
and gusty winds in excess of 35 kts all in play. Winds seas locally
higher INVOF of storms. Outside of storms seas generally 1-2 ft
which will allow for favorable boating conditions. Mariners near the
coast will still need to keep an eye to the sky into this evening.

Previous extended marine forecast discussion...

sun-sun night... Bermuda ridge axis over central fl at daybreak will
lift into the panhandle by sunset. Light and variable winds in the
mrng, bcmg a light to gentle E SE breeze by early aftn with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. As the central peninsula
gains the SRN flank of the ridge aft sunset, winds will shift to a
light to gentle S SE breeze. Seas AOB 2ft. Chc of tsras in the gulf
stream, slgt chc over the shelf waters.

Mon-wed... Weak ridging over north fl will maintain a light to gentle
srly breeze, shifting btwn S SE in the aftn evng hrs and S SW in the
overnight mrng hrs due to the land sea breeze circulation. Seas aob
2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore. Chc tsras each day.

Hydrology The saint johns river above lake harney near geneva
remains at action stage. A very slow rise in the river stage is
forecast through this weekend and into early next week with the
river currently forecast to remain below flood stage. However... Any
additional precip upstream from this watershed could promote higher
levels and perhaps an upgrade to minor flood stage. Refer to the
latest river statements (miarvsmlb) issued by the NWS office in
melbourne for specific details and river stage forecasts.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 75 91 75 90 20 40 20 30
mco 75 94 75 93 30 60 20 40
mlb 75 89 76 89 40 40 20 40
vrb 75 89 75 89 40 40 20 40
lee 77 94 76 94 20 60 20 40
sfb 76 94 76 93 20 60 20 40
orl 76 93 76 93 20 60 20 40
fpr 73 89 74 89 40 40 20 40

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

All grids... Sedlock
radar impact weather... Pendergrast
aviation... Rodriguez
public service... Smith

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 22 mi40 min 83°F1 ft
SIPF1 44 mi40 min S 4.1 82°F 83°F1017 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 79 mi70 min NW 7 G 8.9 84°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.6)
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 80 mi28 min WSW 7 G 13 78°F 1016.1 hPa71°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL6 mi80 minE 57.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity86°F73°F66%1016.6 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL18 mi17 minNW 410.00 miFair84°F77°F80%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE12--SE104Calm--CalmSW3S3CalmW3W4CalmSW4--------NE8E8SE5NW8E54
1 day agoN5N5CalmCalm----SW4CalmCalmSW3SW4SW4SW4SW5SW6W8W10W10W10CalmSE5SE10SE10
2 days agoSE10SE10SE10SE5----S4CalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmS3S8S6S855NW5W6E6E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
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Sat -- 02:44 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
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Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:18 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.