Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:47 PM   Moonset 3:03 AM

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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 921 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest early this morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening. Sunday - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 190617 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A tricky precipitation forecast today with some uncertainty in place. A first wave of diminishing showers looks to move southward across the northern terminals with VCSH introduced at LEE by 08Z, making it to MCO/ISM by 12Z. A second wave of convection moves westward across the peninsula from mid morning into the afternoon. Have included a mention of VCTS at MCO/ISM at 18Z while the current forecast keeps terminals to the north dry.
VCTS beginning around 17/18Z from TIX southward as storms approach from the west. The highest confidence is at VRB/FPR where TSRA TEMPOs are included from 18/21Z. Will reevaluate if TSRA TEMPOs are needed at SUA/MLB in the 12Z package.

South winds early this morning veer southwest to west by late morning, generally remaining 12 kts or less. An east coast sea breeze is forecast at the Treasure Coast terminals after 22Z.



UPDATE
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

It was an active afternoon around east central Florida, with wind damage reported in Lake County and hail in Indian River County.
Activity has diminished this evening, with no mentionable PoPs included through the early morning hours. Beyond that, the forecast remains unusually uncertain, due to a cold front forecast to drop into the area into Sunday. Models disagree greatly on the timing and occurrence of any showers and storms Sunday, though some models suggest a line of showers and a few storms beginning prior to sunrise north of I-4. Have included a 20-30% chance from around Orlando northward to account for this, though confidence is low. Main threats through sunrise will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecast to prevail through the overnight hours. Overnight lows expected in the lower to mid-70s.

MARINE
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions prevailing tonight. Mostly dry conditions overnight, though a few showers and lightning storms will be possible by daybreak along and offshore from the Volusia County coast. Otherwise, southerly winds veering southwesterly/westerly towards daybreak. Seas 2-3ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 70 82 70 / 40 30 40 20 MCO 87 71 87 70 / 60 20 50 10 MLB 88 71 86 72 / 60 30 50 30 VRB 90 71 88 70 / 70 40 50 30 LEE 86 72 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 SFB 88 70 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 88 71 88 70 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 91 71 88 69 / 70 40 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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North Fork
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Sat -- 02:48 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

South Fork
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Sat -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

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