Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indian River Estates, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:08PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:53AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 343 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of offshore moving showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 343 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to fresh south-southwest breeze will create poor conditions for small craft operation into Wednesday. Hazardous conditions are expected late Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal boundary approaches. Isolated to scattered storms will move offshore this evening. Coverage will increase Wednesday, especially during the afternoon and evening, when fast moving storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts. Winds and seas will diminish by Friday with favorable boating conditions continuing into the holiday weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 22nd. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian River Estates, FL
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location: 27.36, -80.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 232100
afdmlb
area forecast discussion... Retransmitted
national weather service melbourne fl
345 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Discussion
Additional beneficial rainfall with potentially strong to severe
storms on Wednesday...

Deteriorating marine conditions Wednesday-Thursday...

current-tonight... Kxmr 15z sounding shows some drying since the 10z
sounding with a pwat now of 1.42 inches. Temperatures at 700 500mb
were +7.1c -8.6c respectively. 915 mhz CAPE profilers continue to
show deep southwest flow across the area. Upper low pressure aloft
over the upper midwest will gradually sink southward through this
period as upper troughing begins to deepen over the deep south and
gomex. A series of weak impulses aloft ahead of the main trough will
traverse the north gulf and north fl peninsula during this time.

For the remainder of the afternoon and evening will be watching
radar for an increase in scattered shower isolated storm activity
associated with the wcsb and surface heating. These cells will
develop across the central peninsula and push rapidly northeastward.

We continue to not expect quite the coverage we saw last evening.

These cells will push off of the east coast and across the near
shore atlc waters. Highest coverage (40pct) will be found across the
i-4 corridor. Threats with storms will include heavy downpours,
lightning, gusty winds and perhaps small hail. Activity will
decrease early this evening, then all eyes will turn northwestward
as a squall line is forecast to develop late tonight and advance
eastward. This line of storms, if it holds together, could make it
into our northern counties just before or perhaps just after sunrise
wed morning, but it may be on a weakening trend by this time.

While surface swrly winds will decrease into this evening, they will
still remain elevated as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight.

Overnight lows mild and generally 70-75f areawide.

Wed... Expect some ongoing convection early in the period across the
i-4 corridor. Expect this activity to be on a downward trend early
in the morning, but may spread further southward to some degree.

With deep layer moisture, impulses aloft, daytime heating cannot
rule out at anytime additional shower storm activity during the day
across ecfl. However, later in the day another batch of convection
will develop across the eastern gomex and spread onto the west coast
in the afternoon and may affect our western and northern counties
before sunset. Some afternoon storms could contain heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. An isolated tornado
or two will also be possible. Strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out. One to two inch rainfall can be expected across much of
the CWA with locally higher amounts possible through this 24 hour
period. A slow moving cool frontal boundary will extend from north
fl thru the gomex by the end of the day.

Temperatures will be interesting, especially northward, where
thicker clouds and earlier additional precipitation could keep
temperatures down. For now, will go with lower 80s north of i-4 with
m-u80s further southward. A few lower 90 degree readings will be
possible, mainly south of kmlb if enough surface heating occurs in
the afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday night... The deep mid-upper level trough
will become negative tilt as IR rotates eastward across the SE and
eastern CONUS through Thursday, and then into the western atlantic
by Thursday night. Its attendant surface low will draw a weak cool
front through central florida overnight into early Thursday morning
bringing a brief 24 hour period of slightly cooler and drier weather
to the region.

Numerous showers and storms will be ongoing at the start of the
period, with activity, likely in the form of an initially intense
but then gradually decaying squall line, steadily pushing eastward
and offshore while propagating southward through the CWA through
early Thursday morning. After a few lingering showers across the
south post-sunrise, drier and slight cooler air overspreads the
remainder of the cwa. Min temps Wednesday night in the u60s-l70s.

Thursday maxes drop back to the l-m80s north-central and u80s south.

Mins Thursday night mainly in the l-m60s.

Friday-Tuesday (modified previous)... H85-h50 trough associated with
the frontal boundary will push into the western atlantic on Friday
as the storm moves across the canadian maritimes. The front will
stall over south florida and wash out over the weekend. Deep high
pressure ridge will build in from the gulf of mexico and across the
peninsula Saturday, en route to the western atlantic on Sunday where
it will merge with and reinforce the atlantic ridge. Dry suppressed
air mass will keep the forecast dry through Saturday. As the ridge
builds over the western atlantic with its trailing axis draped over
central fl, the local pressure gradient will become sufficiently
weak to allow both the east and west coast sea breezes to develop.

Moisture return will be slow as ridge will tend to block out any
high rh, but looks high enough by Sunday to bring low end (20) pops
back into the fcst around lake okeechobee. Moisture increasing from
south to north will allow for a slow upward trend in rain chances
memorial day into Tuesday.

Near full Sun and light southerly flow will generate above average
temperatures for the upcoming holiday weekend... With maxes in the
u80s l90s along the coast to m90s over the interior. Mins u60s l70s
interior and l m70s along the coast.

Beach outlook for the upcoming holiday weekend... A high pressure
ridge is forecast to be over the area. This will provide rather
light winds, except for the afternoon sea breeze. No source of long
period swell is indicated either. While rip currents can still
occur, they shouldn't be nearly as active as the last 2 memorial day
weekends (3 fatalities in 2016 and 4 in 2015). The chance for
afternoon lightning storms looks low.

Aviation Gusty SW winds this afternoon will gradually decrease
this evening but remain elevated overnight as the pgrad remains
fairly tight. Wdly sct showers isold storms will march across ecfl
this afternoon evening with a few pushing off of the east coast,
especially CAPE northward. Movement will be towards the NE at 20-25
kts. While much of the activity will end this evening with mostly
dry conditions overnight, an approaching squall line may make it to
the i-4 corridor before sunrise or a little after on Wed morning,
though it appears that it could be on a weakening trend by that
time.

On Wednesday, SW winds will again be breezy gusty. There will remain
a chance for shra tsra thru the day but a greater chance later in
the afternoon evening as another batch of convection hits the west
fl coast and moves inland. A few of these storms could be strong to
severe with strong wind gusts.

Marine Tonight... The pressure gradient will tighten with gusty
s ssw winds increasing to 15-20 kts over much of the area and
cautionary statements necessary for winds for all the marine legs
overnight. Seas will build to 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offs
ridge. Dry suppressed air mass will keep the forecast dry through
Saturday. As the ridge builds over the western atlantic with
itshore. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move
northeast 20-25 knots off the mainland this afternoon evening,
especially from CAPE canaveral northward.

Wednesday... As a late season cool front and associated strong upper
trough approach the area, shower and storm activity (offshore
moving) will increase. Heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and small hail will all be possible. Cannot rule out an
isolated waterspout or two. Winds seas locally higher INVOF storms.

Rather poor small craft boating conditions will also be attributed
to gusty SW winds. While there may be a lull in the late morning-
early afternoon, wind speeds will ramp up again by late afternoon
and evening making for hazardous conditions. At some point, a small
craft advisory will become necessary. During the day seas will build
3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore. Short period seas will make
for rough small craft boating, too.

Wednesday night-Thursday night... Hazardous conditions will continue
as the frontal boundary pushes through east central florida, then is
expected to stall south of lake okeechobee after sunset with surface
winds gradually diminishing in its wake. A fresh to strong SW breeze
at daybreak becomes a moderate to fresh w-sw breeze by mid afternoon
then a gentle to moderate W NW breeze overnight. Seas will build to
4-6ft near shore and up to 8ft well offshore late Wednesday night-
early Thursday, before subsiding to 2-3ft near shore and 3-4ft
offshore Thursday night.

Friday-Friday night... Post frontal high pressure ridge will build
across the florida peninsula, resulting in winds shifting through
the day. A light to gentle NW breeze at daybreak will become light
north by mid day, veering to E NE by late afternoon amd S SE by
midnight. Seas AOB 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore.

Saturday-Sunday... Weak pressure gradient as the high pressure ridge
builds over the western atlantic with its trailing axis extending
across central florida. A light to gentle S SW breeze in the morning
will become gentle to moderate E SE breeze by mid aftn as the east
coast sea breeze dvlps and pushes inland. A moderate S SW breeze is
expected overnight with the formation of the nocturnal land breeze.

Seas AOB 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore.

Fire weather Remainder of this afternoon... There remains no low
rh concerns but gusty southwest winds keep up thru the afternoon and
decrease slowly this evening. Winds will remain elevated more than
usual overnight as the pgrad remains rather tight. With the
continued dry vegetation any lightning storm will have the potential
for new fire starts. The overall fire danger for wildfire spread
remains fairly high.

Wed... Breezy gusty swrly winds continue on this day, though rain
chances will increase through the day evening. Widespread rainfall
is expected over this 24 hour period. Some storms could be strong to
severe. Heavy downpours, frequent lightning, hail, and very strong
wind gusts are all in play.

Climate Melbourne's low is currently sitting at 76 degrees.

The record warm low here could be tied if the temperature remains at
or above 76 through midnight. The record was last set in 2007.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 72 84 69 82 60 90 70 20
mco 72 84 70 83 30 80 70 30
mlb 75 89 71 85 20 70 70 50
vrb 75 91 72 86 30 60 70 60
lee 74 80 68 82 60 90 70 20
sfb 73 83 70 84 50 80 70 30
orl 74 84 70 84 40 80 70 30
fpr 73 91 73 87 30 60 70 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Sedlock
mid-long term... Cristaldi
dss radar impact wx... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 14 mi56 min 78°F5 ft
SIPF1 36 mi26 min SW 11 82°F 1011 hPa (+0.0)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 53 mi44 min 81°F 82°F1013.4 hPa74°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 75 mi44 min SE 8.9 G 12 78°F 83°F1012.3 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 79 mi36 min S 12 G 16 78°F 78°F4 ft1011.7 hPa74°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL11 mi33 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F71°F65%1011.1 hPa
Stuart, Witham Field Airport, FL13 mi39 minS 147.00 miShowers in Vicinity84°F71°F66%1012.2 hPa
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL21 mi33 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast85°F66°F55%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from FPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S6S5S7S4S3S4CalmCalmS4S4S4SW10S10
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1 day agoE10SE14SE11SE8W5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW54E4E9E12E12SE15SE17SE18SE17
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2 days agoE9E9E7E7E6E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E6E7E9E11SE13SE17SE15SE14SE13SE12E12

Tide / Current Tables for Ankona, Indian River, Florida
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Ankona
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Tue -- 03:40 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:16 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:55 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.2000.20.50.81.11.31.210.70.40-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.611.31.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Eden, Nettles Island, Indian River, Florida
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Eden
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:03 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:19 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.50.20.100.10.40.60.91.11.110.70.40-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.10.30.711.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.