Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Longboat Key, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:05PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:16 AM EST (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 444 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Patchy sea fog. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Patchy sea fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog in the morning, then patchy sea fog in the afternoon. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 444 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis.. Light east to southeast flow on the south side of high pressure off the eastern seaboard will shift south tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect areas of showers and isolated Thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday ahead of this front...with greatest coverage of showers from tampa bay northward to apalachee bay. Wind shift north and northeast behind the front later Tuesday into Wednesday and are expected to reach cautionary levels at times. Areas of dense sea fog are expected to develop ahead of the cold front. The greatest potential for sea fog today will be offshore of the nature coast. SEa fog potential expands south along the coast tonight into Tuesday morning when the best potential to see fog into tampa bay and charlotte harbor will exist. SEa fog threat ends from north to south Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Longboat Key, FL
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location: 27.38, -82.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 220828
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
328 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
08z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing a highly amplified
mid upper level pattern over the CONUS this morning... Highlighted
by a potent trough closed low feature migrating eastward
over the central plains. WV imagery showing abundant column
moisture streaming northward from the subtropical jet into
the eastern side of this system over the ms valley.

Eventually some of this combined energy from this system and
the interacting subtropical jet will bring some rain to our
forecast, but at the present time, it appears this will
generally not happen until a progressive mid upper level
ridge currently over the region shifts eastward over the
atlantic this evening. So far... Other than some morning fog
and lower clouds... Much of today's daylight forecast over
land is looking benign... Dry... And warm.

At the surface... The fl peninsula is within a broad swath of
easterly flow around the southern periphery of a high pressure
ridge offshore of the carolinas. Well to our west nw... A
cold front trailing south from low pressure under the parent
upper low is passing through the ms valley and NW gulf of
mexico. As this system slowly approaches today... The
gradient between the front and the ridge off to our
northeast will gradually shift our wind to the southeast and
then eventually more southerly overnight.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
Today... As mentioned in the synopsis, much of the daylight
hours are looking dry and warm across the region as
mid upper level ridging slowly retreats to the east and a
cold front slowly approaches from the west. Areas of shallow
fog around early this morning will tend to linger through
mid- morning and then burn off over the landmass. The
remainder of the day will feature a mix of Sun and clouds
and temperatures climbing well into the 70s for most spots,
and likely into the lower 80s across the interior from the
i-4 corridor southward. The strong terrestrial
heating... Despite the east SE flow... Is likely to force
either a bonafide sea-breeze or at least a veering of wind
to a more southerly direction at the coast. Therefore, any
flow off the much cooler shelf waters will knock
temperatures back down at the immediate coast, but not
before getting up into the 70s even there.

As the day progresses, will be watching a subtle southern stream
shortwave feature (currently over northern mexico) quickly translate
eastward over the northern gulf of mexico... Around the southern
periphery of the large closed low over the central conus. It is this
subtle high level feature... And its associated jet core upper
divergence pattern that most of the guidance members seem to be
grabbing onto (in terms of deep layer ascent) to kick off a round of
showers storms over the NE gulf of mexico during the afternoon
hours. The timing is not identical from guidance member to guidance
member, but the general time-frame would bring these showers to the
coast from around pinellas county northward along the nature coast
during the late afternoon or early evening. The trend has been
toward more robust coverage of showers this evening... Especially
north of tampa bay... And this will be reflected in the new pop
forecasts after 21 22z. South of the i-4 corridor... There seems to
be little evidence to support much if any shower activity through
00z.

Tonight Tuesday... The initial batch of showers from the i-4 corridor
northward is forecast to take place well ahead of the actual cold
front. It is likely to exit the region with its progressive parent
energy aloft... And then a second band of less organized showers will
arrive overnight into Tuesday morning along the passing cold front.

To be honest... By the time the front is passing through the region,
there is not much in the way of upper support for ascent... And most
of the hires convective allowing guidance members are showing a
decaying line of showers associated with the actual front as it
shift through the forecast areas. These scattered and generally
lighter showers will end across the nature coast by midday as the
front moves off to the south. Across our southern zones... Scattered
showers continue into the afternoon hours... But may shift away from
the coast... As indications that another sea-breeze may form in the
pre-frontal environment along the suncoast. This sea-breeze would be
aided by the S SW synoptic flow and progress inland. If this
happens, would not be surprised to see a few more vigorous areas of
showers before early evening frontal passage over places like
hardee desoto highlands counties. Low temperatures tonight ranging
from the upper 50s far north to the lower middle 60s elsewhere.

A potential concern ahead of this front is sea-fog. Sea fog
evolution is never easy to forecast. There are good general rules
that tell you development is favorable, but getting the timing and
extent (details) right is a rarity. The conditions that support the
formation of sea-fog are simply very subtle, and take place in the
boundary layer, where all models are still currently parameterized.

Therefore in general, would say guidance is early to develop sea-fog
and areal extent is too great. We use these known biases to try and
figure out the best possible forecast, but its still a challenge.

The SE wind direction today would tend to keep the sea-fog that does
develop a marine concern through the afternoon... Staying over the
coastal waters from roughly near the mouth of tampa bay... Northward
toward apalachee bay. However, as winds shift more southerly tonight
ahead of the cold front... And boundary layer mixing ends after
sunset, potential will increase for some sea-fog closer to the coast
and even moving onshore. This potential sea-fog event will be
monitored closely today for all interests (marine aviation and land
based travel).

Mid long term
Frontal boundary will be nearly through the CWA by Tuesday evening
and behind it some cooler and drier air will move into the area. The
airmass will be nowhere near as chilly as what we saw last week but
nevertheless temps will be a few degrees below seasonal norms
Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances essentially zero. Air mass
begins to warm slightly as we get into Friday as models show h5
heights rises over the peninsula as deep upper-level troughing looks
to setup over the central conus. Warming continues into the weekend
as low-level flow becomes more southerly ahead of an approaching
front. As of now, looks like Saturday will be mostly dry perhaps a
few isolated showers but Sunday looks to be quite cloudy and wet
across the area as the front pushes through the region. Behind it,
cooler air looks to once again push into west-central and SW florida
for next week although models differ on just how cold. Will have to
wait and see how things play out over the upcoming week.

Aviation (22 09z through 23 06z)
Areas of shallow fog formation ongoing over the central part of the
peninsula. Confidence still lower than average in the evolution and
expansion of these restrictions westward toward the i-75 side of the
state through the next several morning hours. Have updated 06z taf
package to be more optimistic at ktpa kpie ksrq... Keeping there
terminals above ifr this morning. Any areas of MVFR ifr visibility
at kpgd klal and southward linger through mid morning... Followed by
a period of prevailingVFR for midday through the middle evening
hours. Early evening... Potential for the first showers to arrive off
the gulf around ktpa kpie ksrq. Will also be looking at the later
evening and overnight period to be the best potential for sea-fog
moving ashore into these same tampa bay area terminals.

Marine
Light east to southeast flow on the south side of high
pressure off the eastern seaboard will shift south tonight
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect areas of showers
and isolated thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday ahead
of this front... With greatest coverage of showers from tampa
bay northward to apalachee bay. Wind shift north and
northeast behind the front later Tuesday into Wednesday and
are expected to reach cautionary levels at times.

Areas of dense sea fog are expected to develop ahead of the
cold front. The greatest potential for sea fog today will be
offshore of the nature coast. Sea fog potential expands
south along the coast tonight into Tuesday morning when the
best potential to see fog into tampa bay and charlotte
harbor will exist. Sea fog threat ends from north to south
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold
front.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather concerns through the middle of
the week as relative humidity remains well above critical
levels and winds remain generally light. Good potential for
a wetting rain in most spots tonight into Tuesday ahead of a
cold front... With greatest rainfall totals to the north of
the i-4 corridor. Drier and cooler air arrives for Wednesday
behind the cold front.

Fog potential... Areas of shallow fog will be around the
region this morning... And burn off by mid-morning. The
potential exists for some areas of dense sea fog to move
onshore from the gulf tonight into Tuesday morning near the
coast. Greatest potential for significant fog will be to the
north of sarasota.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 77 64 72 52 20 70 50 10
fmy 80 64 77 61 0 40 50 10
gif 81 64 77 54 0 60 50 10
srq 76 63 71 55 10 60 50 10
bkv 80 62 74 46 20 80 40 0
spg 77 62 72 55 20 70 50 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis short term aviation marine fire wx... Mroczka mid
term long term decision support... Mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 18 mi46 min 59°F 57°F1018.9 hPa
MTBF1 20 mi46 min E 5.1 G 5.1 59°F 1019.1 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 21 mi46 min E 7.8 G 9.7 62°F
42098 22 mi46 min 57°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 23 mi76 min E 6 G 7 62°F 58°F1018.9 hPa (-1.0)62°F
CLBF1 25 mi82 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1018.6 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 26 mi46 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 58°F1018.6 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 33 mi46 min E 4.1 G 7 61°F 58°F1019.1 hPa
MCYF1 38 mi46 min 58°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 39 mi52 min E 2.9 G 4.1
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 40 mi76 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 43 mi46 min E 4.1 G 6 61°F 55°F1019 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL4 mi23 minE 45.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1018.3 hPa
Venice Municipal Airport, FL24 mi21 minENE 62.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E6E6E5E6E7E8E7E5E8SE7W8W7NW5CalmCalmCalmE4E6E7E6SE5E4E4
1 day agoN5NE3NE4NE4E5NE5E3E4E6E5E4E6CalmNE4NE4Calm4NE5CalmNE3E5E4NE6NE5
2 days agoNE5NE5NE5NE6NE6E9E5E6E3E6W7W7W6N6N3N3N4NE5NE3NE6NE5NE4E4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Sarasota, Sarasota Bay, Florida
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Sarasota
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Mon -- 02:49 AM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:24 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:50 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.21.41.51.41.20.90.60.30-0.1-0.10.20.50.91.21.31.31.210.70.60.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Mon -- 02:27 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:27 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:06 PM EST     1.39 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:12 PM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.7110.70.2-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.40.20.81.21.41.30.90.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.