Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 9:33 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 828 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming east late. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 828 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will remain in place through Monday. Ahead of the cold front associated with the next system, winds become southerly and increase over the coming days with wind speeds possibly approaching advisory criteria on Tuesday. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the cold front through Tuesday. The cold front then stalls across the northern gulf waters by the middle of the week with chances for scattered showers and storms continuing. In addition, increasing winds will also support building seas to 2-4 ft into mid week and though seas may briefly subside as the stalled front weakens, seas should remain elevated through the end of the week as additional disturbances approach the area.

FXUS62 KTBW 122339 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 739 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Generally pleasant evening across the Florida Peninsula this evening, if not a touch warm for some. Humidity remains fairly low, so it should be nice enough to spend the remainder of this Mother's Day weekend outside. Winds will remain relatively light and variable overnight with temperatures falling into the upper 60s along the Nature Coast and into the lower 70s elsewhere. Moisture will begin to return tomorrow with the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms across the interior portions of the state associated with sea breeze collisions. The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made to the forecast.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Westerly winds this evening will quickly turn northerly then easterly overnight.
Southeasterly winds on Monday morning will increase slightly before turning southwesterly during the afternoon hours. Sea breeze thunderstorms could impact inland locations, so VCTS included for LAL beginning at 20Z.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Shortwave ridging continues to build across the region through the remainder of the day and into Monday as surface high pressure slides out into the Atlantic. This will result in low level flow becoming south-southeasterly by Monday and bring a quick recovery to more humid conditions after yesterday's cold front brought us a brief reprieve from higher dewpoint values in recent days. With the return of deeper moisture and assistance from a sea breeze collision inland, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during peak heating hours with highest PoPs (35%-45%) for interior areas.
While this appears to be a typical diurnal sea breeze regime with greatest precipitation coverage expected during late afternoon and evening hours, some recent CAM guidance, most notably the HRRR/ARW, appear to show the potential of a line of storms or an MCS developing across the Gulf Coast states and possibly tracking southeastward across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It needs to be noted that this scenario remains highly uncertain at this time but there should be enough instability in place across the Gulf waters to provide fuel for this complex of storms if it were to develop and possibly approach the west central Florida coastline by tomorrow afternoon and evening. However, that said, mainly thinking that tomorrow's convective activity should be mostly due to the typical sea breeze circulation as there will be shortwave ridging aloft across our area and the main forcing from the upper level trough and associated shortwave energy doesn't arrive until Tuesday but latest trends will need to be monitored closely.

By Tuesday, an upper level trough will be swinging across the MS and TN valley with the associated surface low moving into the Ohio Valley. This will allow a warm front to push northward across the area Tuesday morning and eventually the low pressure system's cold front will approach the area by Tuesday night. Given that the environment on Tuesday will be characterized by much better forcing for ascent and dynamics with plenty of wind shear, it appears that a MCS is likely to develop Monday night into Tuesday morning across the I-10 corridor and Gulf Coast states with potential for this feature to track towards our area (possibly similar to Monday's outcome if it were to develop). This could result in some potential for strong to severe storms across the northern portions of our forecast area on Tuesday but the TBW CWA will be on the southern edge of the highest severe risk as we will have ridging aloft across the Caribbean possibly hanging on just tough enough to keep the worst of the activity just to the north. This will also need to be monitored closely as the aforementioned shear values are more than enough to support organized convection but for now confidence is lower than ideal in the southern extent of the impacts. As a result, SPC has included portions of Levy County in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for Tuesday with a larger area of risk northward into north FL and GA/SC but be sure to stay tuned for further forecast updates in the coming days as details become more clear.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly approach our area Tuesday night into Wednesday and eventually stall near or just north of our area into late week. This feature will keep additional shower and storm chances in place with unsettled weather continuing through the end of the week , though transient ridging quickly slides across the area on Thursday so this should support a decrease in overall precipitation coverage by late week. The active weather pattern should then continue into next weekend with continued rain chances as the active subtropical jet remains in place across the southern tier of the US, but once again the strength of upper ridging to the south will need to be monitored as the main disturbances embedded within the flow aloft may be mostly confined to the north of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 92 78 91 / 0 30 20 30 FMY 74 94 77 93 / 0 20 10 10 GIF 72 95 75 95 / 0 50 30 40 SRQ 72 93 76 92 / 0 20 10 20 BKV 68 95 70 94 / 0 40 30 50 SPG 77 90 80 89 / 0 20 20 30

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Cortez
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Sun -- 12:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cortez, Sarasota Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Sun -- 12:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:37 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.33 knots Min Flood
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:02 PM EDT     1.03 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:20 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current, knots

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