Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 5:13 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM

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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 432 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest late this evening, then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds.Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds, becoming south 2 feet at 5 seconds. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds. Thursday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Sunday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 432 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will ridge from the atlantic ocean across the waters through Thursday, with minimal rain chances and winds remaining less than 15 knots. A weak frontal boundary will wash out over the waters late in the week, bringing a slight increase in winds and elevating rain chances Friday through the weekend.

FXUS62 KTBW 080031 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 831 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A rather quiet evening across the area as the sea breeze collision over the interior south into southwest Florida has struggled to pop any convection in our area with just a line of clouds developing. Could still see a brief shower along this line over the next hour or two, otherwise skies will become mostly clear overnight with some patchy fog possible over inland parts of the Nature Coast. Wednesday looks similar to today with mainly dry conditions, except a slim chance of a late afternoon or early evening shower over the interior along the sea breezes. This will allow temperatures to warm into the middle 90s over the interior while locations near the coast will only reach the middle to upper 80s thanks to the sea breeze. Overall current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will diminish this evening and become light southeast overnight and then increase to 5 to 10 knots during Wednesday morning. Sea breeze will shift winds to southwest to west during Wednesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Minimal changes to the pattern for the next couple of days as high pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control. Ridging aloft will also continue to build over the area today and tomorrow, supporting the unseasonably warm temperatures and lack of rain. A sturdier west coast sea breeze will push any shower development further east once contact with the east coast sea breeze is established. Given the dry conditions of the atmosphere, showers and storms will be very isolated, if they get going at all. The pattern holds steady through Thursday, with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s each day, and minimal PoPs.

Moving into Friday a weak cold front dips into Florida, bringing a bit of added moisture and increased chances of rain, especially for areas north of I4. This front is expected to stall to the south, keeping rain chances elevated through the weekend. Another system early next week moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, looks to bring more significant rain chances, but it is still too early to tell the specifics of that system as of now.

MARINE
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

With the high pressure ridge across Florida, winds will continue to be mostly out of the S/SE before turning onshore each afternoon with sea breeze development. Rain stays away from the waters until Friday when a weak cold front moves over the northern waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the period, even with critically low RH values, winds will remain below criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 90 77 89 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 74 93 74 92 / 0 10 0 0 GIF 71 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 72 89 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 66 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 88 78 88 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Cortez
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cortez, Sarasota Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Tue -- 12:02 AM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     -2.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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