Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cortez, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:01PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 7:52PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 849 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots then becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 849 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis.. Interactions between bermuda high pressure in the deep south and a tropical wave moving from the bahamas into the florida peninsula will keep fluctuating gradient over the eastern gulf through mid week with times of increased easterly surges and then afternoon sea breezes. Expect increasing Thunderstorm activity into the weekend with dangerous lightning, locally strong gusty winds, and choppy seas possible.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cortez, FL
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location: 27.48, -82.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 222121
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
521 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Update
Although some moisture return is evident in WV imagery
aloft over the southern half of the forecast area, the
extent of influx has been minimal. In addition... It is quite
evident via satellite trends (and looking out the
window)... The we are still dealing with efficient
suppression in the atmosphere... Keeping the CU fields
generally shallow. Another big factor we are seeing as of
5pm is the we still have fairly healthy offshore flow along
the suncoast... Making the likelihood of defined sea-breeze
formation increasingly less likely within the next hour or
two. With all this in mind... Have made a fairly large
decrease in the overall rain chances for our far southern
zones from highlands to charlotte lee counties. Further
north than that, not needing much in the way of change as
chances were already slight chance isolated at best up to
the i-4 corridor... And less than 10% further north.

Will not remove pops altogether this evening for the
southern zones, as still anticipate a few widely scattered
cells to get established between 22z and 00z... Mainly south
of a line from sarasota to sebring... With better chances
the further south. However, at this point... All the factors
above make it difficult to expect more than about a 30%
chance at any one location. Will remove all pops over the
landmass after 02z... With a dry rest of the overnight
region-wide.

The moisture will continue a slow recovery aloft during the
day Wednesday... And be back above normal for all areas by
Thursday. The combination of this increase in available
moisture, and the arrival of a weak surface trough from the
east (and resulting enhanced surface focus)... The chances
for diurnal showers and storms will slowly ramp up through
the middle of the week.

Aviation (23 00z through 24 00z)
PrevailingVFR conditions expected for all terminals through
the TAF period... Outside of a brief passing shower or storm.

Only a slight chance of a passing storm for kpgd kfmy krsw
through 02z this evening... And very unlikely further north.

Isolated to widely scattered late afternoon storms return
to the i-4 corridor terminals Thursday afternoon, with
potential for a bit higher storm coverage southward to the
fort myers region.

Prev discussion issued 303 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017
short term (tonight-Wednesday)...

a tropical wave just to the east of the southeast fl coast
will gradually shift west over south fl and weaken across
the area through Wednesday. Deep moisture will move into the
area and allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances Wednesday afternoon
and across the south. Generally east to NE winds will be in
place through the period, becoming light overnight, and a
weak sea breeze Wednesday afternoon turning winds onshore.

Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s north and
inland, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast.

Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 90s.

Long term (Wednesday night through next Tuesday)...

at the beginning of the long range period, a potent upper
trough will extend from the northern plains into new
england. High pressure will dominate the remainder of the
country with a couple of noted weaknesses in the tropics. At
the surface, high pressure will extend across the western
atlantic ocean and the gulf of mexico with a weak tropical
low near the southern tip of florida, and a strengthening
low pressure system over the western gulf of mexico.

We again face an uncertain forecast as models continue to
handle the evolution of a weak surface low quite poorly.

This tropical disturbance is currently situated over the
bahamas and will drift slowly west to northwest to a
position either over the southern florida peninsula or just
offshore in the far eastern gulf by late Wednesday. As is
common with weak areas of low pressure, medium range
guidance can hardly resolve the system, which is making the
exact track of the feature very difficult to discern. The
more reliable mid long range solutions are beginning to
converge somewhat, but we have a long way to go before
consensus is obtained. To complicate things, the remnants of
harvey look to move out into the western gulf, eventually
strengthening into at least a tropical depression or
tropical storm. Both of these features, along with a
deepening of the upper trough and a southward moving cold
front will lead to a complicated forecast and error is
certain to be quite high as we move beyond this weekend.

What we do know is that the weak tropical disturbance is
likely to at least affect areas of southern and perhaps
central florida Wednesday into the weekend, as a plume of
deep tropical moisture joins the daily seabreeze
circulations and daytime heating. This should promote fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday afternoon, especially south of the i-4 corridor.

Localized flooding may occur in areas that receive training
rounds of heavy rain, though widespread flooding doesn't
appear likely at this time. Further north, over north
central florida and along the nature coast, lesser chances
of rain will exist due in part to the presence of some
slightly drier air aloft.

Beyond the weekend, even greater uncertainty exists as
models attempt to spin up two tropical cyclones along the
stalled frontal boundary. Right now, we look to remain
between these two systems, which would generally favor drier
and hotter conditions that normal, but a small deviation
could result in greater impacts to the area, and will will
have to monitor the situation closely.

Marine...

weak pressures will be in place across the waters with weak
ridging in place and a tropical wave along the SE fl coast.

Increasing moisture will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend as generally
easterly flow continues, turning onshore along the coast
each afternoon. No headlines currently expected through the
period.

Fire weather...

no concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 79 94 79 91 10 40 30 60
fmy 77 92 76 89 30 70 40 80
gif 76 94 76 92 10 50 20 70
srq 77 94 78 90 10 40 30 60
bkv 73 95 75 93 10 30 20 60
spg 80 94 79 90 10 30 30 60

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation... Mroczka
previous discussion... Hubbard austin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 13 mi49 min 85°F 90°F1014.7 hPa
MTBF1 14 mi49 min E 7 G 9.9 89°F 1015.3 hPa
42098 15 mi37 min 89°F3 ft
CLBF1 18 mi73 min NNE 1 G 1.9 87°F 1013.9 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 20 mi49 min ENE 12 G 16
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 25 mi97 min N 16 G 19 88°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 27 mi49 min ENE 6 G 8.9 89°F 89°F1015.4 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 31 mi67 min NE 6 G 7 88°F 89°F1014.9 hPa (+0.6)71°F
MCYF1 33 mi49 min 90°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 34 mi61 min NNE 5.1 G 7
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 34 mi55 min ENE 4.1 G 7
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 35 mi49 min NE 7 G 8.9 89°F 89°F1015.4 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi73 min NE 6 G 7 88°F 1015.7 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL9 mi74 minENE 610.00 miFair86°F72°F63%1014.3 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL20 mi74 minENE 1310.00 miA Few Clouds91°F73°F56%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E9E8E9E8E6E6E6E5E5E7E7E9SE8E8NE5E7E8E9NE11NE8NE6E6E8
1 day agoE5SE5SE6E6E8E6E8NE6E6E7E8E8E11E11SE10E9SE7SE8E5E8
G14
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2 days agoN3E3NE3NE3NE4E6E6E3NE4E3E6E6E8E5E6E7E6NE9E10E12
G17
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G22
SE8E7E4

Tide / Current Tables for Cortez, Sarasota Bay, Florida
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Cortez
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:56 PM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.71.71.61.51.31.11.11.11.41.82.22.52.62.52.21.81.40.90.50.30.30.61

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM EDT     1.69 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.71.40.90.2-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.40.10.71.31.61.61.10.3-0.6-1.4-1.9-2-1.8-1.2-0.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.