Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 10:56 PM   Moonset 8:13 AM

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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 233 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect - .
Tonight - East winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Sunday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 233 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis - High pressure with a tight pressure gradient continues over the E gulf waters with winds around 20 kts and seas 4-7 ft to produce hazardous small craft advisory conditions through the evening surge and tonight. Brief decrease in easterly winds Sunday morning before another afternoon into evening increase with periods of scec/sca likely into early next week. High pressure remains in the region as winds slightly decrease into mid week with the afternoon sea breeze returning.

FXUS62 KTBW 271826 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 226 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Persistent springtime upper ridging continues to stretch from the N Carib, over the FL Peninsula and up into the Eastern Seaboard with subsidence aloft to keep the warm and mainly dry conditions in place through the weekend. At lower levels breezy easterly flow continues around the strong high pressure center in the W Atlantic as a result of the tight pressure gradient. Have seen some light low topped sprinkles on radar in this flow as well but don't expect much in the way of measurable rain and will keep blind 10 PoPs mainly interior areas.

The upper ridge will finally get suppressed early-mid-week as a shortwave moves through the Deep South. Surface high pressure in the W Atlantic weakens but will continue to dominate at the low levels keeping the area warm and dry while the sea breeze returns at least to coastal areas. Some models hinting at isolated interior seabreeze showers Tuesday afternoon but will hold less than 20 PoPs for now in those areas.

By late week, ridging becomes reestablished aloft to keep the warm/dry sensible wx conditions in place.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with a combination of diurnal SCT lcl BKN050-060 cumulus clouds and cirrus aloft this afternoon with gusty easterly winds to continue through the evening surge then decrease overnight and clouds fade. Winds and clouds increase again Sun around 14Z.

MARINE
High pressure with a tight pressure gradient continues over the E Gulf waters with winds around 20 kts and seas 4-7 ft to produce hazardous SCA conditions through the evening surge and tonight.
Brief decrease in E winds Sun morning before another afternoon/evening increase with periods of SCEC/SCA likely into early next week.
High pressure remains in the region as winds slightly decrease into mid week with the afternoon sea breeze returning.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry springtime high pressure remains in the region with daily minimum RH values at or just below critical levels each afternoon. Easterly winds become occasionally gusty each afternoon into evening with high dispersions in some areas. Even though fuels remain just moist enough to preclude red flag warnings, an elevated fire weather risk remains with these conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 87 66 88 / 0 10 0 0 GIF 66 85 64 87 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 68 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 61 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 86 70 85 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Cortez
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Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:39 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:44 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cortez, Sarasota Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Sat -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.15 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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