Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Samoset, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:06PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:16 AM EST (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 10:08AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 348 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to near gale force early this morning shifting to northwest around 15 knots by late morning. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms early this morning.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 15 knots becoming north overnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of rain.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of rain.
Sunday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 348 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis..A strong cold front will move south through the coastal waters today with south to southwest winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts to gale force ahead of it. In the wake of the front high pressure will build in north of the waters during Friday and Saturday with winds and seas subsiding. An area of low pressure may bring another round of showers into the central and southern gulf waters during Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samoset, FL
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location: 27.49, -82.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 240928
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
428 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Discussion
Strong southerly flow out ahead of the band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms has transported abundant moisture northward
overnight with dew points now in the mid to upper 60s across the
region. We've seen gusts to around 40 knots near the coast in the
southerly synoptic flow and wouldn't take much for the convection
to tap the 50 to 60 knot winds a few thousand feet off the surface
so an isolated severe wind gusts is possible in some of the
stronger storms early this morning. Could also see a quick spinup
leading to an isolated waterspout tornado early this morning as
the band moves through. Cold front will exit the region by early
afternoon taking most of the convection with it as west to
northwest flow ushers in our next shot of cool dry air for Friday
and Saturday.

Over the weekend and into early next week broad mid upper level
troughing will remain across the eastern two-thirds of the conus
with a series of shortwaves moving through it. Saturday night
into Monday shortwave energy will be moving across the gulf of
mexico and into florida, but the timing, location, and strength of
the wave continues to vary highly between the models which leads
to a continued rather low confidence in the forecast during this
timeframe. Latest indications are that the best chance of
rain showers will be across south florida, but a slight shift in
location or strength of the shortwave could bring a much higher
rain chances to the entire region. For now have gone with a blend
of the guidance and indicated slight chance to chance pops from
around the interstate 4 corridor southward Saturday night and
Sunday and then chance pops across pretty much the entire region
for Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday the shortwave should be
off to the east of the area with weak surface high pressure
building in bringing a return to fair dry weather before the next
shortwave and associated cold front approaches from the northwest
during midweek bringing another chance of showers.

Aviation
MVFR local ifr conditions are expected this morning as a
band of showers and embedded thunderstorms moves across the
region this morning.VFR conditions should return from
northwest to southeast this afternoon and prevail through
tonight. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the convection will
diminish and shift to west northwest as the cold front
sweeps across the region today.

Marine
South to southwest winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts to
gale force will shift to northwest and diminish later this morning
as the cold front crossed the waters. In the wake of the front
high pressure will build in north of the waters during Friday and
Saturday with winds and seas subsiding. An area of low pressure
may bring another round of showers into the central and southern
gulf waters during Sunday and Monday.

Fire weather
Drier air will move into the region in the wake of the cold front
and support a few hours of humidity values below 35 percent over
interior locations both Friday and Saturday afternoon. However,
low erc values and lighter winds will preclude red flag
conditions.

Fog potential... No significant fog is expected during the next
few days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 68 46 60 43 100 0 0 0
fmy 72 52 65 46 80 10 0 0
gif 71 44 62 42 100 0 0 0
srq 68 49 61 43 100 0 0 0
bkv 68 39 60 34 80 0 0 0
spg 68 48 60 48 100 10 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through this evening for coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota.

High rip current risk through Friday afternoon for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning
for charlotte harbor and pine island sound-coastal waters
from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 nm-coastal
waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river
fl out 20 nm-tampa bay waters-waters from bonita
beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters
from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion aviation marine fire weather... 69 close
decision support... 13 oglesby


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 10 mi28 min 73°F 63°F1011.9 hPa
MTBF1 12 mi28 min SSW 25 G 30 70°F 1011.3 hPa67°F
CLBF1 19 mi82 min S 12 G 20 74°F 1011.2 hPa
GCTF1 20 mi28 min 72°F 67°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 20 mi34 min S 22 G 28 70°F 64°F1011.7 hPa
42098 23 mi46 min 63°F6 ft
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi28 min S 17 G 23 70°F 63°F1011.8 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 29 mi16 min SSE 19 G 21 67°F 64°F1013.2 hPa (+0.0)67°F
MCYF1 30 mi28 min 65°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 31 mi46 min S 19 G 23 69°F 66°F1012.5 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 31 mi28 min SE 21 G 29
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 38 mi28 min S 31 G 38 69°F 63°F1011.2 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 48 mi82 min S 22 G 33 70°F 1011.3 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL6 mi23 minS 23 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Windy72°F70°F94%1011.7 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL20 mi23 minS 20 G 289.00 miOvercast and Breezy71°F68°F90%1011 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E11SE12SE13SE17
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2 days agoNE6NE6NE8NE11
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G15
E8NE7E5NE5NE6E9E11E12NE9NE7NE6NE5NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Bradenton, Manatee River, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Bradenton
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:07 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:02 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.921.91.71.30.80.3-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.30.10.50.91.21.31.31.10.90.70.50.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM EST     1.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:10 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:48 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:29 PM EST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:35 PM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.20.80.1-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.20.61.31.61.61.30.70.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.