Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 4:39 PM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 843 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming east. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 843 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - Atlantic high pressure ridging into the northeastern gulf of mexico this weekend will slide south by mid week, with southeasterly winds becoming more southerly by Wednesday. Winds will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. A few showers or storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas of no more than 2 feet.

FXUS62 KTBW 050043 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 843 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 840 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

No adjustments to the evening forecast. Broken line of showers currently from around Sumter County generally following I-75 south to around the Tampa Bay area with an occasional embedded storm, with additional convection across SWFL still affecting parts of DeSoto, Charlotte and Lee counties. This activity should wane through the evening giving way to partly cloudy skies with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s with lower 70s along the immediate coast.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

There is more moisture in place across the penesula this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to near 70. Latest visible satellite imagery indicates an expansive cumulus field. Not seeing much in the way of vertical development but expect this will begin later this afternoon. PW values will continue to rise this afternoon and evening to around 1.6 inches. These values are around the 90th percentile for early May climatology. Additionally, there is a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving through the region. All of these factors coupled with peak afternoon heating should lead to our best chance for showers/storms in quite a few days. Chances will range from 20-50% with higher chances across the interior. Activity should peak around 00z (8pm) and begin to diminish in coverage and intensity shortly after this timeframe. Mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Moisture looks to fade a bit tomorrow afternoon with PW dropping by a tenth of an inch or so. Additionally, mid-level ridging builds in with anticyclonic flow aloft. Due to these factors, decided to lower PoPs slightly for Sunday afternoon. Still expect isolated to scattered showers to develop with precipitation chances around 20- 40%. Highs will once again be on the warm side in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Similar conditions are forecast on Monday with PoPs tapering off in the 20-30% range Monday afternoon.

The surface high will move overhead by Tuesday and slightly drier air will move into the region. PoPs will continue to decrease to only around 10-20% on Tuesday. Upper level heights will continue to build across the region throughout the remainder of the week. These increasing heights will lead to climbing temperatures and dry conditions. Highs Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period will be in the low 80s to mid 90s. Lows will generally be near 70.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Early evening convection likely to linger through around 02Z or so with the potential for brief restrictions before diminishing. Flow becomes variable to light offshore overnight then increasing out of the SE during the morning before shifting onshore during the afternoon. Slightly drier conditions on Sunday may result in reduced rain chances, so opted to exclude mention this cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Afternoon/evening showers/storms are forecast to develop over the next couple of days. Drier conditions will arrive around mid-week.
Minimum RH values will drop down into the 30-40% range across the interior next week but winds will be below red flag criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 88 73 90 / 20 30 20 20 FMY 70 90 70 90 / 40 30 20 20 GIF 69 90 69 91 / 20 30 20 20 SRQ 71 89 70 90 / 20 20 10 10 BKV 65 90 65 91 / 20 30 20 20 SPG 74 87 75 87 / 20 20 10 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Redfish Point
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Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:12 PM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:37 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Redfish Point, Manatee River, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:50 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:40 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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