Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holmes Beach, FL

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday July 22, 2018 10:34 AM EDT (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 416 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft exercise caution...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds around 20 knots then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds around 15 knots then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 416 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis..A trough of low pressure to the north and a ridge of high pressure to the south will combine to produce increasingly westerly winds today...with small craft advisory level winds expected north of tarpon springs, and cautionary level conditions expected over the gulf waters between englewood and tarpon springs. Cautionary to advisory level conditions will continue through Monday, with winds and seas expected to subside Monday night through much of the week as the area of low pressure to the north of the waters dissipates.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holmes Beach, FL
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location: 27.51, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 221355
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
955 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Update
Updated pops to lower them a little bit this morning across
the area due to the lack of coverage. The nature coast will
be our main area of concern today due to a cut off low over
the eastern half of the us that tend to send strong outflow
boundaries their way. Best chance for that today will be in
the evening and early overnight hours. For that reason i
have increase pops slightly in that area this evening and
mentioned the possibility of severe weather in the area.

Prev discussion issued 802 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
aviation...

generallyVFR conditions will persist through the forecast
period. We will remain dry for all TAF sites during the
morning hours but thunderstorm chances will be starting by
around 18z and will start north and move south. A shortwave
moving through will help to keep thunderstorm chances
through the overnight hours.

Prev discussion... Issued 408 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
short term (today - Monday)...

a broad upper mid level trough of low pressure over the
eastern us is cut off from the main flow, causing it to
generally hold in place today and Monday while slowly
amplifying. The surface reflection is also sprawled across
the eastern us, and will gradually expand south into
northern florida today and tonight, increasing the pressure
gradient between it and the surface ridge across the
southern gulf, increasing the westerly flow. This breezy
onshore flow will cause a high risk of rip currents along
area beaches today and Monday.

Showers have been slower to develop over the gulf this
morning than in previous days, but with precipitable water
values remaining around two inches, scattered showers are
expected to expand in coverage over the eastern gulf through
sunrise and will continually move onshore through the
morning hours. As surface heating takes over through the
late morning and afternoon, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop across the area once again. The
main area of concern will be over the nature coast, which
could see some stronger storms this afternoon and evening as
convection to the north of the area sends outflow
boundaries into the region. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazard, but the possibility exists for training
storms moving onshore and causing high rain totals and
localized flooding, mostly along the coast of the nature
coast counties.

Tonight and Monday, the area of low pressure both at the
surface and aloft will extend farther south into northern
florida, with the breezy west wind continuing. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will still be possible
overnight moving onshore from the gulf. A weak frontal
boundary associated with the advancing low pressure will
push the axis of highest moisture through the interstate 4
corridor during the morning and into southwest florida
during the afternoon, with numerous thunderstorms
continuing.

Long term (Monday night - Saturday)...

the mid level cutoff low over the southeastern CONUS and
northeastern gulf of mexico will gradually open up through
mid week and be absorbed into a trough swinging through the
great lakes during the second half of the week. At the
surface, the area of low pressure over northern florida will
gradually dissipate Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
subtropical ridge building back into southern florida from
the atlantic late in the week. This pattern will continue to
support light westerly to southwesterly flow through
Thursday, then more southerly flow Friday and Saturday as
the ridge builds in.

Through Thursday, this pattern will produce morning showers
and storms developing over the eastern gulf and moving
onshore, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms building
through the late morning and afternoon hours before
gradually dissipating through the evening. With more
variable flow Friday and Saturday, a more typical summer
pattern is expected, with mainly afternoon thunderstorms
developing across the area.

Marine...

westerly flow will continue between a broad area of low
pressure over the southeastern states and a ridge of high
pressure across the southern gulf of mexico. As the area of
low pressure sinks farther south towards the eastern gulf,
wind speeds will increase to around 20 knots, producing low
end advisory level conditions today. Cautionary to possibly
advisory level winds will continue into Monday afternoon
before gradually subsiding Monday night as the pressure
gradient relaxes. West winds around 15 knots or less will
continue through the rest of the week. Otherwise, higher
winds and seas will be possible in daily showers and
thunderstorms, producing locally hazardous marine
conditions.

Fire weather...

relative humidity will remain well above critical thresholds
though the forecast period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 89 80 88 78 40 50 60 40
fmy 90 79 90 77 40 50 60 40
gif 91 77 89 75 40 40 60 30
srq 90 82 89 78 30 50 60 50
bkv 90 77 89 74 60 60 60 40
spg 88 80 87 78 40 50 60 50

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Monday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal sarasota.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
coastal waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river
fl out 20 nm-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee
river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Update aviation marine fire weather... 27 shiveley
upper air... 14 mroczka
decision support... 14 mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 12 mi40 min 85°F 86°F1014.2 hPa
MTBF1 12 mi40 min NW 16 G 17 85°F 1014.4 hPa76°F
42098 13 mi34 min 87°F4 ft
CLBF1 16 mi100 min WNW 9.9 G 15 90°F 1013.2 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi46 min W 7 G 16 87°F 87°F1014.3 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi34 min W 13 G 15 86°F 87°F1014.4 hPa (+1.2)
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 26 mi64 min W 14 G 16 86°F1014.5 hPa
MCYF1 32 mi40 min 87°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 33 mi34 min E 8 G 14
VENF1 - Venice, FL 33 mi34 min W 15 G 16 86°F 87°F78°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi40 min W 15 G 17 85°F 86°F1014.5 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 33 mi46 min SW 6 G 13
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 45 mi100 min W 12 G 18 86°F 1014.4 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL11 mi41 minW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F78°F77%1013.8 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi41 minWNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds88°F75°F68%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W13W14W14W15W15W18
G22
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NW7W6W8W11W10W12W12W10W10W11W10W11W11W12W12W11
1 day agoSW13SW13SW11SW12SW12W10W16
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S4W5W6W6W6SW7W9SW7SW8SW6
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SW8SW9W7SW8SW13SW13W11
2 days agoSW11SW10NW6
G16
SW10W9S63W7SW8W7W8SW7NE6NW3CalmSE4SE3SE4SE5SE35--SW9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Anna Maria Key, Bradenton Beach, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Anna Maria Key
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Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:44 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.31.31.51.722.22.32.32.221.71.30.90.50.40.30.40.70.91.21.41.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:16 AM EDT     -0.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:51 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:04 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30-0.1-0.10.10.40.70.910.90.50-0.5-1-1.3-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.30.30.811.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.