Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Bradenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:37PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 7:11 AM EST (12:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 8:19PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 333 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop becoming a light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming north late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 333 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis..High pressure offshore the mid atlantic coast early this morning will move further to the east over the atlantic today as an upper level disturbance over the gulf moves east across the peninsula through tonight as a stalled frontal boundary across the florida straits lifts back to the north as a warm front. Increasing moisture combined with the trough and warm front will support numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms over the gulf waters today. On Wednesday an area of low pressure will develop over the gulf. This low will then move east northeast across the northern florida peninsula during Thursday and Thursday night and into the atlantic on Friday. Sufficient moisture combined with this storm system will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms over the waters through Friday. Pleasant dry weather will return to the waters on Saturday as high pressure builds in over the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Bradenton, FL
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location: 27.52, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 210813
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
313 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Increasing rain chances today through Friday...

Short term (today - Wednesday)
Surface high pressure just offshore the mid atlantic coast
early this morning will slide further to the east over the
atlantic the remainder of the today as a short wave trough
within the amplifying upper level trough over the west
central gulf of mexico approaches and slides east-northeast
across the region through tonight. Increasing low level
moisture within a southeast to southerly wind flow combined
with increasing ascent associated with the approaching short
wave, and the remnant frontal boundary to the south lifting
back to the north as a warm front should all help to
generate numerous showers and isolated storms over the
region today, with the showers first developing across
southwest florida by mid morning as it will take a while
longer for the current dry and stable airmass to moisten up
enough to support rain, with the activity then spreading
north across the remainder of the forecast area during the
afternoon as the above mentioned features affect the region.

With some rather cold temperature aloft (-10 to -11c at
500mb) and decent shear via forecast soundings, a few
strong storms will be possible. Model pop guidance remain
fairly similar to previous days with pops in the 60 to 70
percent range areawide. MAX temps today should run close to
normal despite increasing cloud cover and rain chances with
highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s in most locations
along with increasing humidity levels.

Tonight the rain chances will taper back into the isolated
range (20 percent) as the upper level support and deepest
moisture axis shifts northeast into the atlantic overnight
with mostly cloudy mild and muggy conditions expected. Dew
points increasing into the mid 60s along with light winds
will likely support some fog development over inland areas
and in fog prone areas overnight and will introduce into the
grids and zones. Low temperatures will run above normal for
this time of the year with lows generally in the 60s
areawide.

On Wednesday rain chances will remain elevated (pops in the
30 to 40 percent range) across the forecast area as upper
level troughing persists over the southeastern u.S. And gulf
of mexico. Sufficient moisture combined with the lingering
frontal trough and additional upper level disturbances
moving across the region should again help to generate some
scattered showers and isolated storms across the region
during the day under mostly cloudy skies, but some dry mid
level air (via model sounding and time cross-section data)
may support somewhat lower convective coverage compared to
today. Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to today
with highs again climbing into the mid and upper 70s north
into central zones and around 80 far south during the
afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
A strong mid level shortwave trough will be digging into the
central gulf of mexico Wednesday night, and will slowly
shift east through the florida peninsula through the rest of
the week. This trough will be fueling a surface low that
will lift northeast through northern florida Thursday and
Friday, bringing ample moisture into the forecast area.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any time
through Friday afternoon, with the highest rain chances
expected Thursday and Thursday night. Despite the prolonged
wet period, column moisture will only be sufficient to
support light to moderate rainfall rates, with occasional
heavy downpours, so it does not look likely that any area
will see a washout.

Surface high pressure will build into the gulf and northern
florida Friday night and Saturday, with rain chances
drying out from north to south. Another mid level shortwave
will quickly follow the first, providing a reinforcing shot
of cool and dry air Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring
temperatures down to a few degrees below normal, with lows
Monday morning in the 40s and low 50s, and afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 60s.

Aviation
Vfr conditions this morning will give way to brief MVFR
cigs vsbys after 14z at kfmy, krsw, and kpgd terminals and
after 17z from ksrq north to ktpa, kpie, and klal as
moisture and rain chances increase across the region during
the day. Some isolated tsra will be possible after 18z and
have handled with vcts for now. Outside of the convection
vfr will prevail with cigs AOA 050. East winds in the 5 to 7
knot range will veer to the southeast at 7 to 10 knots
after 15z with higher gusts possible in the vicinity of tsra
after 18z. Light and variable winds will return to all
terminals after 00z tonight.

Marine
Surface high pressure just offshore the mid atlantic coast
is supporting east winds in the 15 to 20 knot range over
the offshore gulf waters early this morning. As the high
moves further to the east during the day winds should
diminish as the gradient relaxes as winds veer to the
southeast and south. In the interim though current wind and
sea states (via offshore buoys) supports maintaining
cautionary headlines for the offshore waters through early
afternoon, with east to southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot
range closer to shore diminishing to around 10 knots during
the afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift associated with
an upper level disturbance approaching from the west will
support increasing rain chances over the waters through the
day with higher winds gusts likely in the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

Tonight through Wednesday an area of low pressure is
expected to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico, with
this low then tracking east-northeast across the peninsula
during Thursday and Thursday night. Although winds and seas
are not expected to significantly increase with this low
rain chances will remain elevated through the period with
scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms expected
as this storm system affects the region. A trailing cold
front from this low will move south through the waters on
Friday bringing with it drier weather and northwest to north
winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. High pressure with dry
conditions and northwest winds will continue on Saturday,
with a slight uptick in wind speeds expected on Sunday as
another reinforcing dry cold front moves south through the
waters during the day.

Fire weather
Increasing low level moisture and rain chances will keep
humidity values well above critical levels today and
through the remainder of the week with no fire weather
issues expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 76 64 77 66 70 30 40 30
fmy 81 65 80 66 50 20 30 20
gif 77 62 78 63 70 30 40 20
srq 77 65 77 64 70 20 40 20
bkv 76 61 77 61 70 30 40 40
spg 76 65 76 65 70 30 40 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 57 mcmichael
mid term long term decision support... 18 fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi41 min 65°F 69°F1014.9 hPa
MTBF1 10 mi41 min ESE 13 G 15 66°F 1015.6 hPa
CLBF1 15 mi77 min ENE 4.1 G 7 68°F 1014.7 hPa
42098 16 mi41 min 71°F2 ft
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 17 mi41 min E 6 G 9.9 67°F 70°F1015.9 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 24 mi41 min E 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 70°F1015.9 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 28 mi41 min E 18 G 21 74°F
MCYF1 30 mi41 min 72°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 31 mi53 min NE 5.1 G 7
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 31 mi47 min ENE 2.9 G 7
VENF1 - Venice, FL 33 mi71 min E 8.9 G 12 65°F 71°F1015.6 hPa (-0.6)61°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi41 min E 7 G 11 66°F 68°F1015.9 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 44 mi77 min E 8.9 G 11 66°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL10 mi18 minE 610.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1015 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL17 mi18 minESE 910.00 miFair68°F63°F84%1015.5 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL24 mi75 minE 910.00 miFair66°F64°F95%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE9NE9NE11E13E11
G18
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1 day agoSE4SW5SW6SW8SW10SW10W9W8NW11NW9NW11N12NW8N7N8N8N11
G18
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2 days agoCalmE4E4SE7SE7SE4W8W7W8W8W6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmSE3CalmSE3S7

Tide / Current Tables for Cortez, Sarasota Bay, Florida
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Cortez
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:54 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:55 PM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:19 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.221.61.20.70.3-0-0.2-0.10.10.50.91.21.41.41.41.31.31.21.31.51.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:06 AM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:44 PM EST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:27 PM EST     -0.22 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:19 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.90.4-0.3-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.20.40.91.31.31.10.80.4-0-0.2-0.200.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.