Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 5:12 AM   Moonset 6:58 PM

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GMZ250 Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas Out 20 Nm- 1031 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming east with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Friday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

GMZ200 1031 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
a weak to moderate onshore flow increases to moderate flow early Wednesday. There's a very low chance (less than 15%) for showers or Thunderstorms today. Moderate onshore flow will continue through Wednesday night. Winds will diminish Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the northeast Friday and Saturday, then to the east on Sunday. There is a 15-30% chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the weekend.

FXUS64 KCRP 071135 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 635 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Messages:

▶ There's a moderate to major risk for heat related illness Tuesday and Wednesday

▶ There's a Moderate Risk for Rip currents through Wednesday morning

The region will be under a zonal flow aloft with a mid-level low pressure system over the northern Plains and a mid-level high over western Mexico. There's a few disturbances that will move across the region and will keep silent PoP's in the forecast but expecting the CAP to be a major limiting factor. The big story here will be the heat.

WAA in the lower to mid levels will combine with humid conditions near the surface resulting in a Moderate to a Major risk of heat related impacts across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, According to the NWS Heat Risk tool. Currently, there's a low to medium chance (30-40%) for Heat Indices of at least 110 degrees across the southern Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend for a few hours on Wednesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed but will hold off issuing for now. Regardless, Don't get caught off-guard by the first heat of summer as temperatures will ramp-up quickly. Take proper precautions for heat safety, have a plan to stay cool and hydrated, have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and warnings.

Have opted to let the Coastal Flood Advisory and the High Rip Current Risk to expire this morning as swell heights/periods have decreased to around 3 ft and 7 seconds respectively. Will keep a moderate risk for rip currents through the period.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to major HeatRisk Thursday.

- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

- Moisture returns to the region this weekend bringing increasing rain chances into early next week.

Another day of intense heat is expected Thursday with heat index values ranging from 105 to 113 degrees across the region, highest across the inland Coastal Bend. Heat advisories will likely be needed for some locations.

Relief to the heat is in store Friday into the weekend as a cold front moves through Thursday night. Confidence in any precipitation with the front remains very low, but if any storms do manage to form, the best chance would be near or north of the Victoria Crossroads.

The front will stall out around the area over the weekend with a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Deeper moisture looks to stream back in by Sunday. This increase in moisture combined with the subtropical jet setting up over the area and embedded shortwave troughs could lead to increased rain chances late this weekend into early next week. Current long range ensemble models have about a 30 percent chance of at least a quarter inch of rain across much of the Coastal Plains and around a 15 percent chance of at least an inch of rain.

This is still a ways out and plenty of uncertainty remains, but it certainly warrants keeping an eye on over the next few days.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently have MVFR ceilings across South Texas terminals. Models seem to be overdoing the lower CIG's a bit so have backed off of IFR CIG's for this morning. VFR expected this afternoon. Expecting similar conditions overnight tonight with MVFR CIG's.

MARINE
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow increases to moderate flow early Wednesday. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) for showers or thunderstorms today. Moderate onshore flow will continue through Wednesday night. Winds will diminish Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the northeast Friday and Saturday, then to the east on Sunday. There is a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 91 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 77 107 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 86 77 87 77 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 77 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 87 78 89 78 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...None.

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Corpus Christi
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Tue -- 04:29 AM CDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:52 PM CDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:29 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:30 AM CDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:11 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM CDT     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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