Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 2:32 PM

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GMZ250 Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas Out 20 Nm- 319 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft exercise caution - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late. Seas around 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms this evening. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 8 seconds. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 319 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has strengthened our onshore flow this afternoon so that a small craft advisory is in effect until 100 am Saturday morning. However, the high pressure will nose into the coastal bend overnight allowing the flow to weaken. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 031822 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening

Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HRRR mean surface based CAPE ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result in an environment favorable for organized deep convection.

Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear will support supercells that will move east to southeast through the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts.
Finally, the 00Z HRRR guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3 inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5 inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash flooding this evening.

The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day.
That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday.

Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This will result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday. Elsewhere temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid- upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values could exceed 110 degrees.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated showers are in the Victoria Crossroads, and the chances are expected to remain low (chance <30%) that at VCT, CRP, and ALI. In the meantime, MVFR CIGs are expected through the evening, until the low clouds and fog move back into the region overnight.
An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop in the Rio Grande Valley to the north or along the Sierra Madre and move southeast into COT and LRD after 00z/SAT and last through about 03z/SAT before they die off or move out of the forecast area. The rest of the night will have MVFR to IFR CIGs and probably MVFR to VFR VSBYs as the moisture remains high overnight. Ceilings will rise late in the morning to MVFR, and possibly VFR.

MARINE
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 87 75 87 / 20 0 10 20 Victoria 73 87 73 86 / 30 0 10 30 Laredo 76 95 76 93 / 40 10 20 30 Alice 74 90 74 90 / 20 10 10 20 Rockport 75 85 75 84 / 20 0 10 20 Cotulla 76 94 75 93 / 40 20 30 40 Kingsville 74 88 74 89 / 20 0 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 85 / 20 0 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Corpus Christi
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Fri -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:17 AM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:01 PM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:17 PM CDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:43 PM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:40 AM CDT     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:00 PM CDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM CDT     -0.22 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:26 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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