Thursday, August24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ellenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 24, 2017 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 848 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers ending.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming west late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 848 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis.. Generally light winds and seas will continue into the weekend. A weak tropical wave will move northward across florida and into the atlantic by Friday night or Saturday. This will generate greater coverage of showers and storms than would be typical, but winds are generally expected to remain light. Winds may increase over the northern waters early next week as the gradient tightens between a front to the north and the remnant low as it lifts to the northeast. Still, winds generally look to remain below 15 knots, and the only marine hazard will be locally stronger winds and rougher seas with Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellenton, FL
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location: 27.53, -82.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 240014
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
814 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

After several mostly quiet days in terms of storms across
west-central and southwest florida... A more typical summer
afternoon evening storm pattern was seen today. Far northern
zones remained in a region with drier air aloft and stayed
mostly dry... However... From pasco county southward... The
convection was active. As of the 815pm writing of this
discussion... The main line of convection has passed offshore
into the eastern gulf, with only lingering lighter trailing
showers over left from the i-4 corridor southward down the
suncoast. Will see this heavier storm activity only migrate
further offshore into the later evening hours... With
conditions drying out for the landmass.

Aviation (24 00z through 25 00z)
The last of the evening storms pull offshore from ktpa kpie
before 01z. All terminals will see lingering showers
through 03z... But with generallyVFR conditions. After
midnight... And through Thursday morning... Mostly dry
conditions with no significant aviation concerns
anticipated. Thunderstorms coverage will once again ramp up
Thursday afternoon into the evening... With all terminals
seeing a decent potential for a passing heavy downpour and
gusty winds.

Prev discussion issued 255 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
short term (today and Thursday)...

a potent upper level trough continues across the great
lakes and new england with strong surface high pressure
building southeastward from canada in the wake of a fast
moving cold front. Meanwhile, robust mid level ridging
extends across the southern rockies into the southern plains
and gulf coast. Weak surface high pressure extends across
the gulf of mexico and western atlantic on the norther
periphery of two tropical features of note; tropical
depression harvey, and a weak tropical wave located
somewhere between the florida straits and west of the
florida keys. Harvey will remain well west of the region,
bring the potential for extensive life threatening flooding
to portions of texas and louisiana. The tropical wave near
south florida will be the primary feature of concern over
the next two days.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are
in progress across mainly south florida. This activity is
expected to persist and eventually become more widespread as
daytime heating continues and the seabreezes eventually
merge over southwest florida. Given deepening tropical
airmass as depicted by precipitable water values in excess
of 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially
over areas south of i-4. As the tropical low lingers over
the area into tonight, showers and storms may be slow to
dissipate, but an eventual weakening of activity is forecast
by midnight with more activity developing offshore.

For tomorrow, as the low lifts northward across the
southern and central florida peninsula, even more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected. The
combination of deep tropical moisture with the usual
afternoon seabreezes and weak lift associated with low
pressure should yield widespread rainfall coverage. Areas
that receive prolonged rains may experience localized
flooding, but widespread flooding is not currently expected.

With increased cloud cover and moisture, we should catch a
slight break from the heat as well, with upper 80s to lower
90s over the mid 90s highs we have seen of late.

Long term (Thursday night-Wednesday)...

a weak surface trough will be lingering over the area
through Monday, and then start to lift out to the NE with
weak ridging in place at the upper levels. Plenty of
uncertainty at the end of the period with respect to what
will evolve with harvey currently forecast to move into the
northern gulf coast region. Deep moisture will remain in
place across the area with the trough, and expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day across the
area. Temperatures near normal through the period. All
interests should monitor the tropics for the next few days
as conditions evolve.


an area of low pressure will linger near southern florida
into tomorrow night, generating scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the gulf waters. This feature
will lift to the northeast Friday into Saturday, imparting
drier conditions. Light winds and seas will persist through
the weekend, but winds may increase slightly over the
northern waters as this area of low pressure interacts with
a weak cold front over the southeastern u.S. Early next
week. This could lead to increasing winds over the northern
waters Monday into Tuesday, but winds generally look to
remain below 15 knots. All eyes will remain on harvey as
well early next week, though it looks to remain well to the
west at this time.

Fire weather...

as a tropical wave lingers over the area, deep tropical moisture and
increased chances for rain will prevent any fire weather concerns
through the weekend. A drier weather pattern may take shape early
next week, but humidities still look to remain well above critical
levels through next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 91 78 89 70 60 30 60
fmy 76 89 77 87 30 80 50 70
gif 75 91 75 90 30 60 30 70
srq 77 89 78 89 30 60 40 60
bkv 75 92 75 90 40 50 30 60
spg 79 91 79 89 80 50 40 60

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation... Mroczka
previous discussion... Austin hubbard

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi43 min 77°F 89°F1011.3 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi43 min ESE 8 G 8.9 80°F 1012 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi49 min E 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 88°F1012.1 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi127 min E 1.9 G 1.9 80°F 1012.3 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 23 mi43 min E 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 88°F1011.9 hPa
42098 24 mi31 min 89°F1 ft
MCYF1 27 mi43 min 89°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 28 mi55 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 28 mi49 min ESE 1 G 4.1
VENF1 - Venice, FL 32 mi61 min ENE 5.1 G 6 77°F 88°F1012.3 hPa (+0.0)77°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 34 mi91 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 88°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 36 mi49 min E 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 89°F1012.2 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 46 mi67 min ESE 4.1 G 6 80°F 1012.6 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL10 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1011.6 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi68 minESE 410.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1011.5 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL23 mi63 minENE 410.00 miA Few Clouds77°F77°F100%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE4E3E5E4NE4NE5NE5NE7E64N6N8NE6NE6SW8S5NW4SE11CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4
1 day agoE9E8E6E6E6E5E5E7E7E9SE8E8NE5E7E8E9NE11NE8NE6E6E8E7E8E6
2 days agoE6E8E6E8NE6E6E7E8E8E11E11SE10E9SE7SE8E5E8

Tide / Current Tables for Redfish Point, Manatee River, Florida
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Redfish Point
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Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Thu -- 02:01 AM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:57 PM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.