Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellenton, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:21PM Monday May 29, 2017 4:58 PM EDT (20:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 245 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight, then becoming north toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming east late in the morning, then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 245 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to ridge into the eastern gulf of mexico through the week. Light winds will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellenton, FL
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location: 27.53, -82.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 291841
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
241 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Short term (tonight - Tuesday)
Mid level high pressure centered east of the state today is
continuing to ridge across the area, but will gradually slip east
and away tonight and Tuesday. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge
will gradually lift north across the florida peninsula through
Tuesday, with light low level flow becoming increasingly southerly.

This will lead to atmospheric moisture increasing by Tuesday
afternoon. This increased moisture, combined with reduced ridging
aloft will allow for better chances of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon, along sea breeze boundaries. From the tampa bay
north, the best storm chances will be well inland, but to the south
of tampa bay, the sea breeze collision will be focused closer to the
west coast.

With higher humidity and increased cloud cover on Tuesday,
temperatures are not expected to be quite as hot as today, but will
still be a few degrees above normal. High temperatures Tuesday
afternoon are expected to run in the mid 90s inland, and in the
upper 80s and low 90s near the coast.

Long term (Wednesday through next Monday)
The middle and end of the week are looking fairly typical in terms
of pattern and forecast for early june. The main upper ridge will
have shifted to the east and southeast resulting in less overall
large-scale suppression and a higher degree of atmospheric moisture.

Over time the large scale low level flow will become S SE as the
surface ridge axis shift to the northern half of the peninsula. This
flow, when moisture is present is often an active pattern for
diurnal sea-breeze storms. The forecast will be ramping up the rain
chances to account for this greater storm potential, but remember
that even though rain is in the forecast, we are talking about late
in the day... And generally brief durations of actual rainfall.

During next weekend, there remains some disagreement in the degree
and speed to which mid upper level troughing will dig out of the
southern plains into the northern gulf. Latest GFS canadian are more
aggressive with this amplification compared to the ECMWF which holds
a greater degree of ridging (especially over the eastern
gulf florida). The more and faster this trough digs, the faster our
low level flow will shift more from the southwest. The southwest
flow this time of year would push the greater thunderstorm coverage
further inland. However, many of the global models are suggesting an
upper level disturbance may get caught up in this amplification and
move northeastward across the gulf SE conus. This disturbance would
bring a greater potential for synoptic rainfall. So... The confidence
in the forecast next weekend is below normal. A good generalization
would be to say, the further into the weekend we get, the greater
chances for a more cloudy and showery forecast will develop.

Still have plenty of time to watch the guidance trends and revise
the current forecast over the coming days.

Aviation
A few isolated spots of MVFR ceilings are persisting over the area,
but otherwiseVFR conditions will continue into this evening. Patchy
fog tonight is expected mostly north of the tampa bay terminals, but
isolated periods of reduced flight categories cannot be entirely
ruled out at area terminals.

Marine
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge from the atlantic into
the eastern gulf of mexico through the next few days, with light and
rather variable winds turning onshore each afternoon with the sea
breeze. Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria.

Fire weather
Moisture is continuing to increase across the state. Relative
humidity will approach 35 percent for a couple hours during the next
few afternoons, mainly over interior regions. Some patchy fog will
be possible again Tuesday morning, mainly over the nature coast.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 76 91 77 91 0 20 10 40
fmy 75 92 75 92 10 30 20 50
gif 74 95 74 94 10 40 30 50
srq 74 87 75 87 0 10 10 30
bkv 71 92 72 92 0 20 10 40
spg 76 91 77 91 0 10 10 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 18 fleming
mid term long term decision support... 14 mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 9 mi41 min 83°F 86°F1016.8 hPa
MTBF1 11 mi41 min WNW 11 G 12 83°F 1017.7 hPa72°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 18 mi47 min SE 1 G 5.1 91°F 84°F1017.2 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi65 min W 9.9 G 11 85°F 1016.9 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 23 mi41 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 86°F 84°F1017.5 hPa
MCYF1 27 mi41 min 85°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 28 mi47 min SW 2.9 G 7
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 28 mi41 min W 7 G 9.9
VENF1 - Venice, FL 32 mi59 min WNW 11 G 12 82°F 84°F1017.6 hPa (-1.3)75°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 34 mi89 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 83°F
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 36 mi41 min WNW 6 G 7 82°F 84°F1018.2 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 46 mi65 min WNW 6 G 8 83°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL10 mi66 minW 1210.00 miFair88°F70°F55%1017.2 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL18 mi66 minSE 610.00 miFair89°F72°F57%1017 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL23 mi61 minN 510.00 miFair93°F64°F40%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13W12W10W7NW6NW5NW4W6W6SW5W5W4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W10W13W13W14W12
1 day agoW10W10W7NW9NW5NW4W3W3W5W7W7NW4W5NW4CalmCalmN54N7NW10W13W14NW15
G22
NW14
2 days agoW9W9W8W7NW4N3NW5NW4CalmCalmN3N3N3E3E3E5E4NE5CalmSW8W9W10W10W10

Tide / Current Tables for Redfish Point, Manatee River, Florida
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Redfish Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:10 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:04 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.10.30.71.11.21.31.31.31.41.41.51.82.12.32.42.32.11.81.40.90.50.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:59 AM EDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:35 AM EDT     -0.06 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:23 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM EDT     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.50.311.51.61.51.10.60.2-0-00.20.50.91.11.10.70.2-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.7-1.7-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.