Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 8:32 AM   Moonset 11:15 PM

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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 1007 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots late. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon. Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 4 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1007 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly move through the area as high pressure builds into the northern gulf with northwesterly winds. The high pressure area will quickly move into the western atlantic with winds swiftly to the east and then southeast Sunday into early next week. Another front moves into the region Tuesday with southwest winds increasing to near exercise caution levels with increasing rain chances as well.

FXUS62 KTBW 111403 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1003 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The surface frontal boundary has moved through the Tampa Bay area and is now slowly approaching the Lake Okeechobee region. Recent radar imagery continues to show a band of weak showers accompanying the boundary with precipitation activity moving to the SSE. This activity should generally taper off over the next couple of hours as the boundary drops into south Florida later today. The drier air filtering in behind the front should yield a mainly dry day today for most of the forecast area with generally improving conditions and lowering humidity levels, though there may be enough lingering moisture to support some isolated shower and storm chances for southern interior areas. However, given the west-northwest flow in place, expecting the better PoPs to be east of the area on the eastern side of the peninsula where more favorable sea breeze convergence will occur. Otherwise, other than some minor tweaks to PoPs this morning based on recent radar trends, the forecast remains on track at this time.

DISCUSSION
A weak frontal boundary is over N FL with a broken band of weak showers well ahead of it that continues to slowly sag over the C FL Peninsula early this morning through daybreak. The rain and frontal boundary will be across the southern part of the peninsula later today, while drier air and high pressure filters into N FL.

The high pressure center quickly moves into the W Atlantic Sunday with a warm and dry Mother's Day expected. The next southern tier storm system is expected to develop and move through the N Gulf region Monday with winds becoming E-SE increasing moisture. The main dynamics and surface low are expected to remain well N of the area as the weakening attendant cold front stalls in N FL. The S-SW low level flow will persist with modest instability and diurnal heating will increase much needed rain chances for the area Tue-Fri.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Occasional MVFR CIGs will be possible to start the TAF period as a band of light showers gradually pushes southward. The shower activity should quickly taper off by mid to late morning with drier air building in and this will provide for VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be from the west-northwest at around 8-12 kts but occasional stronger gusts will be possible at times.

MARINE
A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly move through the area as high pressure builds into the Northern Gulf with northwesterly winds. The high pressure area will quickly move into the Western Atlantic with winds swiftly to the east and then southeast Sunday into early next week. Another front moves into the region Tuesday with southwest winds increasing to near exercise caution levels with increasing rain chances as well.

FIRE WEATHER
Weak high pressure is expected to build into the region this weekend with drier air moves into the area, especially on Sunday, but winds are expected to remain below critical criteria preventing Red Flag conditions. Low-level moisture and rain chances are expected to increase next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 71 90 74 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 91 71 93 72 / 20 0 10 0 GIF 95 67 92 71 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 90 69 91 71 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 91 62 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 88 74 89 76 / 10 0 0 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Egmont Key
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Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:15 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Egmont Key, Egmont Channel, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Sat -- 12:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:37 AM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.36 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:06 PM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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