Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:07 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 1011 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early, then becoming southwest late. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1011 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the waters will continue e-se winds through the week with winds turning onshore during the afternoon with the sea breeze. Cautionary-level winds will gradually diminish throughout the day as the gradient continues to relax, otherwise no headlines expected through the remainder of the period. Showers and perhaps a storm will be possible near the coast through mid week during the evening into early overnight hours before diminishing.

FXUS62 KTBW 291732 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 132 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A quiet morning across the region with Atlantic high pressure in full control. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest some potential for a few showers developing by late evening mostly in southwest FL, though have some low PoPs in the 15-20% range mainly south of Tampa Bay along/near the I-75 corridor as any activity is expected to be isolated in coverage. If any precipitation activity does develop, thunder chances appear too low to add to the forecast as instability values continue to look weak.
Otherwise, highs for the afternoon will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with no changes needed to the ongoing forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Outlook for the upcoming week remains similar to previous forecasts, with E U.S. high pressure responsible for breezy conditions of late weakening and shifting SE into the W Atlantic through mid week ahead of a shortwave disturbance moving across the E U.S., then returning over the latter half of the week into the weekend before another disturbance moves across the E U.S.
late weekend into early next week potentially displacing it E into the Atlantic.

Lighter E-SE winds expected today in response to the weakening gradient, with a bit more of a sea breeze component likely to develop and penetrate inland this afternoon and evening compared to recent days. While PoPs are expected to remain around 20 percent or less, a few evening-early overnight showers once again appear possible as the E-SE flow intersects the boundary. While global and MOS guidance are not particularly enthused regarding this potential, hi-res guidance continues to key on this possibility, which seems prudent given their performance the past few days reflecting the evening showers that have developed across parts of the area. While today's E-SE flow may not encourage as much convergence along the sea breeze boundary, the expected penetration of the boundary further inland due to the weakened gradient/E flow will likely allow any showers that do develop to affect more areas ashore compared to Sunday, favoring the I-75 corridor from around the Nature Coast southward through SWFL, with the highest chances from around the Tampa Bay area through SWFL. Despite the showers, amounts will likely remain below a tenth of an inch for most areas, with a few locally higher amounts possible.

Global/MOS guidance come aboard Tue-Wed regarding potential rain chances as a shortwave pushes across the E U.S., signaling an uptick in PoPs into the 15-30 percent range over interior areas, with highest chances south. Despite favoring the interior, the presence of the sea breeze combined with the predominantly E-SE flow expected to remain in place during this time will still support lower PoPs toward coastal areas as showers will be propagating westward across the area. While confidence leaves a little to be desired at this juncture, it appears that enough instability will be present to support at least a few rumbles of thunder, particularly in conjunction with the highest PoPs.

Ridging aloft-surface builds back over the area Thu into the weekend which will squelch rain chances to an extent, however guidance still indicates 10-20 PoPs for much of the area favoring the typical diurnal cycle of maximized chances during the aftn-eve hours before diminishing, with greatest potential inland although the sea breeze will maintain lower chances closer to the coast.
Another shortwave and attendant surface low pressure system propagating eastward across the E U.S. late weekend-early next week will perhaps lead to an uptick in moisture and associated rain chances locally, however at this time enough uncertainty remains to discourage adjusting the forecast away from the current expectation of conditions not changing much from the late week-early weekend period.

Temps through the period are expected to remain on the warmer side of things compared to normal, despite the Tue-Wed rain chances and potentially increased associated cloud cover. Early week highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, before rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s from around mid week onward. Coastal areas under the influence of the sea breeze can expect slightly cooler highs generally in the mid 80s. Overnight and early morning lows in the 60s are expected.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Isolated showers may develop by this evening around southwest FL coastal terminals along the sea breeze and while this activity should be light if it develop, brief restrictions could occur if any heavier pockets of showers develop. As a result, VCSH has been added to southwest FL terminals from roughly 00Z-03Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are in place throughout the TAF period with winds turning southerly tonight and eventually onshore into Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure over the waters will continue E-SE winds through the week with winds turning onshore during the afternoon with the sea breeze. Cautionary-level winds continue this morning for some central waters before diminishing this afternoon as the gradient continues to relax, otherwise no headlines expected through the remainder of the period. Showers and perhaps a storm will be possible near the coast through mid week during the evening into early overnight hours before diminishing.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warm and dry high pressure continues over the region with easterly flow and a few hours of low RH values along with high dispersions for some areas today before improving through mid week. Fire weather risk remains somewhat elevated for today, however, fuels are expected to remain moist enough to preclude additional concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 69 86 70 / 0 10 10 0 FMY 87 67 87 69 / 10 20 20 10 GIF 87 65 87 67 / 0 10 20 10 SRQ 87 67 85 68 / 0 10 10 0 BKV 88 62 87 62 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 84 72 84 73 / 0 10 10 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
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Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT     0.31 knots Min Flood
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Mon -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
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