Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 12:28 PM   Moonset 1:21 AM

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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 350 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots early this evening. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 3 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Thursday night - West winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 350 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - The severe Thunderstorm watch has been cancelled.
south to southwest winds will continue over the waters today ahead of a frontal boundary, with showers and Thunderstorms developing and spreading southward through the rest of the day and into tonight. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest through Thursday as the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and Thunderstorms for the end of the week and into the weekend.

FXUS62 KTBW 151841 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is moving across the southeast this afternoon while at the surface, low pressure spins off the mid-Atlantic coast and a surface boundary remains draped across the Florida peninsula.
This setup has fueled some strong thunderstorms so far today, though most of these have been over inland areas where the atmosphere was less stable. This activity will continue to slowly spread southward through the rest of the day and even into tonight as the boundary slowly moves southward. The front stalls tonight into Thursday, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continuing mainly along and to the south of the boundary, with drier air moving in to the north. This boundary starts to lift back northward on Friday as another storm system moves toward the southeast. Low-level flow becomes south to southwest again, leading to an increase in moisture and rain chances starting across the northern half of the area for Saturday and shifting south for Sunday. The front moves through the region Sunday into Sunday night, with drier air returning for early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
MVFR/VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon with some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Have kept TEMPO groups in for most sites for the possibility of restrictions withing thunderstorms, but confidence is not very high in this happening as most activity has so far stayed north or east of the terminals. Showers and maybe a few storms will continue to be possible through the rest of the day, however, and some MVFR cigs will also be possible tonight as a boundary pushes southward. VFR should return toward the later part of the forecast period.

MARINE
South to southwest winds will continue over the waters today ahead of a frontal boundary, with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading southward through the rest of the day and into tonight.
Winds will shift to the west and then northwest through Thursday as the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next few days, with no Red Flag concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 89 75 91 / 30 10 0 10 FMY 78 91 76 93 / 40 40 0 10 GIF 73 93 70 95 / 30 10 0 10 SRQ 76 89 74 91 / 40 20 0 0 BKV 68 90 65 94 / 20 0 0 10 SPG 78 88 78 89 / 30 10 0 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Madeira Beach Causeway
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Wed -- 02:05 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:13 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EDT     1.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:21 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Madeira Beach Causeway, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:39 PM EDT     0.01 knots Min Flood
Wed -- 05:45 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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