Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 5:37 PM   Moonset 4:00 AM

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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers. Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers. Thursday night - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Friday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 220159 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 959 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mostly quiet over ECFL this evening, with the KMLB radar showing some showers and lightning storms across the western portion of the peninsula where the east and west coast sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Satellite and local observation show mostly clear skies with a few lower and mid level clouds approaching the coast from the Atlantic. Mostly dry conditions are forecast tonight, with isolated showers (PoP 20 percent) possible along the coast of the Treasure Coast, mainly after midnight. Northeast winds of 5-10 mph this evening will become light overnight with mostly clear skies prevailing. Models continue to not be overly impressed with fog potential for tonight, so have kept fog out of the forecast.
However, settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush fires may also cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire. Forecast remains in track with only minor adjustments to the cloud cover overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 958 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Favorable boating conditions continue tonight. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 3 ft with NE winds around 10 KT.
Northeast winds will continue tonight, with winds around 10 KT or less. Seas 3-5ft this evening will subside to 2-4ft overnight.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible tonight, especially across the Gulf Stream.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages...

-Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms still possible over the interior through sunset.

-Temperatures increasing through mid to late week, with drier than normal conditions expected.

-Hotter and drier than normal conditions forecast to persist into the holiday weekend.

Currently-Tonight...Shower development has remained fairly limited along the east coast sea breeze, but the potential for isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will continue for inland areas through sunset as the east coast sea breeze moves westward. A few onshore moving showers may also be possible late tonight, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, most areas look to remain dry into tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy, and lows falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Despite a lighter onshore flow, model guidance not showing much in the way of fog development tonight, so have kept mention out of the forecast.
However, with lighter winds overnight still can't rule out some patchy ground fog in spots late tonight and toward daybreak Wednesday. Settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush fires may also cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near large "Sandy Drain" wildfire, that is currently 95% contained, in southern Volusia County near Farmton.

Wednesday...Ridge aloft builds in from the west and drier airmass building in from the east will help suppress any convective development with the sea breeze into tomorrow. Only low end rain chances, around 20 percent, exist across Okeechobee County and the southern Treasure Coast for the potential for a stray shower or storm into the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb into mid week, with highs tomorrow ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s and low 90s over the interior.

Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Anomalous ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday as 500mb heights reach the 90th climatological percentile. Mid level ridging continues to remain in place through the weekend, flattening some as a shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday, increasing moisture and precip chances slightly into the weekend.
However, forecast has been trending drier with PoPs 20-30 percent on Saturday, around 20 percent on Sunday, and then only 20 percent across the interior on Monday.

Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 820 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light northeast winds tonight will increase to around 10 KT by mid morning. Gusts up to 20 KT possible in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland, especially across the interior sites. Mostly dry conditions expected through the period. Isolated showers will be possible across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. However, confidence is not high. Included VCSH at SUA Wed afternoon where the best chance for showers will occur.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mid to Late Week...(Previous Discussion) Building high pressure will promote sensitive fire conditions across the interior Thursday into late week. Minimum relative humidity values fall near critical thresholds across the northwest interior Thursday, ranging 35-40 percent. Values are then forecast to remain in the low to mid 40s across interior counties through at least late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 85 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 71 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 73 85 72 87 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 71 88 70 88 / 20 10 0 10 LEE 71 90 72 93 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 70 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 71 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 70 87 69 88 / 20 20 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Wabasso
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:28 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:19 AM EDT     0.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:07 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wabasso, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

Sebastian
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     0.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sebastian, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

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