Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 1:21 AM

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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Tonight - Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 949 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
generally weak to moderate onshore flow today and tonight, except for predominately moderate onshore this afternoon and evening over the southern bays and southern nearshore coastal waters. Generally moderate onshore flow Thursday as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. The approach of the upper level system and increasing moisture will contribute to isolated showers and Thunderstorms Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

FXUS64 KCRP 151143 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Deterministic runs predict an upper subtropical jet streak to enter the CWA today. The NAM/GFS predict PWAT values to increase above normal this afternoon near the Rio Grande. The combination of the foregoing may result in isolated convection over the Rio Grande Plains by late this afternoon/early evening. SPC places the Rio Grande Plains in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Day 1 (The NAM predicts CAPE values to increase to nearly 3000 J/kg at LRD by 21z today). An upper level disturbance is predicted to approach the Four Corners Region today then enter TX Thursday.
In addition, moisture will continue to increase tonight/Thursday, with PWAT values well above normal Thursday afternoon. The combination of upper forcing and copious moisture will contribute to scattered convection Thursday, mainly over the Coastal Plains, with the greatest likelihood over the Victoria Crossroads.
Concur with SPC which places the approximately northeast 2/3 of the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (The NAM predicts CAPE values to peak 3000-4000 J/kg over much of the CWA, along with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg). With respect to Fire Weather, anicipate that breezy onshore flow over the CWA along with low relative humidity values, will result in an Elevated risk of fire weather conditions this afternoon over portions of the Rio Grande Plains/Brush County. Based in part on the application of the expected winds/sea state to the local expert system, will maintain a Moderate risk of rip currents today through Thursday. Patchy to areas of radiation fog early this morning, consistent with select thermodynamic profiles per the LAPS (very thin layer of moist air near surface, followed by dry air aloft). Anticipate mainly stratus clouds tonight/early Thursday owing to wind.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages: - Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday.
- Elevated heat concerns possible early next week for the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

A low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorm will continue Thursday night and through the day Friday. This activity will be facilitated by mid-level shortwave progression and ample low-level moisture with PWATs around 1.5-2.0 inches. Additionally, strong instability will be present with SBCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg across portions of South Texas. As we progress into the day Friday, the chance for precipitation will be further influenced by an upper- level trough ushering a surface low pressure system and associated cold front into Central Texas and possibly into South Texas. This low would allow for enhanced low level convergence along the cold front, providing lift for convective development. In light of the considerable instability and favorable low-level moisture, SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) in place for severe thunderstorms on Friday for the Victoria Crossroads and a small portion of the northeast Coastal Bend.

Looking ahead past this rainy spell to the weekend and early next week, mid and upper-level ridging will set in from the west, ushering in a period of dry weather with a steady warming trend.
Daytime highs are forecasted to climb from the upper 80s to upper 90s on Friday, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s through the remainder of the long term period. These temperatures coupled with high humidity levels will allow for heat indices to soar close to 110 degrees over portions of South Texas, specifically the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Dense fog over the ALI, CRP, and VCT terminals early this morning will rapidly dissipate by mid morning. Afterward, expect VFR areawide over South Texas through early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may affect mainly terminal LRD early this evening. A transition to MVFR ceilings areawide overnight.
Weak onshore flow this morning will transition to breezy/windy onshore flow this afternoon. Expect a transition to predominate MVFR ceilings and weak onshore flow toward the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow today and tonight, except for predominately moderate onshore this afternoon and evening over the southern bays and southern nearshore coastal waters. Generally moderate onshore flow Thursday, as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. The approach of the upper system and increasing moisture will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 90 78 92 77 / 0 10 30 10 Victoria 91 72 88 75 / 0 10 60 30 Laredo 99 79 101 75 / 0 20 0 10 Alice 94 76 95 75 / 0 10 30 10 Rockport 87 78 88 78 / 0 10 30 10 Cotulla 97 77 97 75 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 91 77 93 76 / 0 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 87 79 89 80 / 0 10 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ231>234- 241>244-246-247-342-343.

GM...None.

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Nueces Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:33 AM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:28 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM CDT     0.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nueces Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:14 AM CDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:19 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:21 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:25 AM CDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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Corpus Christi, TX,