Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Pasadena, FL

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Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 8:04PM Monday August 20, 2018 11:01 AM EDT (15:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 926 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
This afternoon..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 926 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the region through the next several days, with no headlines expected. Winds and seas may briefly be higher in or near scattered Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Pasadena, FL
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location: 27.75, -82.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 201126
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
726 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorm activity.

Light winds this morning will shift onshore near the coast this
afternoon with the sea breeze. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening, with the
greatest chances along and east of i-75. Showers and storms will then
dissipate within a few hours of sunset, with dryVFR conditions
expected tonight.

Prev discussion issued 521 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
synopsis...

09z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing an ill-defined
mid upper level pattern in place over deep south fl early
this morning. We really see no significant synoptic
features, dry wet pockets in place to introduce additional
variables to a typical southeast flow florida summer
forecast.

At the surface... The subtropical ridge axis from the
atlantic is aligned across the central florida
peninsula eastern gulf... Roughly in the vicinity of the i-4
corridor. This positions provides the clockwise southeast
flow in the lower atmosphere across the central southern
peninsula... Turning more southerly toward our northern
nature coast zones. However, the ridge axis nearby is
keeping the gradient and resulting wind regime rather light.

The more mesoscale nocturnal local land breeze circulation
is currently dominating the flow along the coast and into
the eastern gulf at this early hour. A scattering of
showers storms can be seen on radar well offshore along this
boundary, and based on the strength of the flow, these
storms will remain offshore through a good portion of the
morning. The only exception being up toward citrus
county cedar key, where the more southerly flow against the
land breeze is likely to allow the migration of isolated
convection to the coast in the next several hours. Most of
the higher resolution convection allowing guidance is
supportive of this type of short term convection evolution.

Otherwise, its a benign, warm and muggy late summer morning.

Temperatures and dewpoints are generally in the 70s and
should be holding near steady through dawn.

Short term (today through Tuesday)...

today... Surrounding sounding profiles from last evening
and current nwp guidance indicates a fairly static pw
profile across the peninsula of roughly 2" (or slightly
above). This value is within the realm of climatology for
this time of year and should not significantly suppress or
enhance the typical diurnal distribution of storm coverage
one would expect within the current low level southeast
flow regime. As mentioned in the synopsis... Most of the
convective activity this morning will remain over the
coastal waters, allowing a mainly dry morning with
temperatures rising through the 80s.

Once the sea-breeze gets organized during the early
afternoon hours, a few isolated storms can be expected near
the coast. However, this pattern generally sees the greater
convective coverage for this side of the state during the
later afternoon and evening hours, and this evolution will
be used in the timing of today's forecast. Storms will
evolve inland from the i-95 corridor along the east coast
seabreeze into our south- central zones during the
afternoon... Providing outflow to interact with the west-
coast seabreeze late in the day and force the majority of
the storms. The greatest coverage of storms will be along
and just east of the i-75 corridor later today, and highest
pops will be in these locations. However, with sea-breeze being
rather light, will keep rain mention in the forecast
further west to the coast, as any stronger convective outflow
from the inland storms can certainly overpower the sea-
breeze and make its way inside the i-75 corridor to force
additional storms into the evening hours. Unfortunately for
the meteorologist attempting to pin down the best
probability timing for each location, there is nothing easy
or straightforward about forecasting the mesoscale (or
microscale) nature of florida summer convection...

especially as one gets later in the day toward a 3rd or 4th
generation of pulse storm development. Generalized
spatial temporal patterns that are known for differing
synoptic wind directions provide a good first guess toward
forecasting the day's convective evolution. However,
unpredictable convective outflow under lighter flow has
ruined many a well reasoned forecast in the past, and
certainly will continue to do so in the future.

Tuesday... Our synoptic low level winds pattern begins to
transition from SE to SW during Tuesday as troughing evolves
over the eastern part of the country and drives a weak cold
front down into the deep south. This progression will force
the subtropical ridge to drop south and result in this more
southwesterly flow into our region. Yes, the term "cold
front" was just used in this afd, but don't get too excited.

This front is not packing much of a punch and will stall and
decay before reaching the peninsula. The front's influence
to provide a longer fetch off gulf waters in the upper 80s
will prob only make things more humid. Unfortunately, we
still have a ways to go folks until that first refreshing
cold front enters our forecast.

For Tuesday... Although most of the morning will be dry, a
few isolated showers should be expected within the
southerly SW near the coast and over the coastal waters
during the morning hours. The flow will then rather quickly
push the sea-breeze inland during the afternoon hours.

Therefore, scattered storms will be expected along and
inside the i-75 corridor during the early afternoon, but
should quickly translate inland during the later
afternoon evening hours. The more defined flow will also
help to prevent convective outflow from coming back westward
during the evening, especially from the tampa bay area
northward through the nature coast.

Long term...

the middle and end of the workweek will feature a pattern of
continued low level SW flow. This pattern will provide the
best chance for scattered showers storms near the coast
during the morning early afternoon hours, followed by the
best storm coverage moving steadily inland.

There is almost unanimous agreement in the longer term nwp
guidance in a shift back to a well-defined southeast flow
pattern for the upcoming weekend. The southeast flow will
keep the higher rain chances on the west side of the state,
and with a generally later start time (late
afternoon evening). For boaters, stronger southeast flow
does pose of danger of storms developing in the later
afternoon hours and rapidly moving offshore into the coastal
waters. We frequently see instances during strong southeast
flow were storms develop and move offshore rapidly enough
to block the path back to safe harbor. Plenty of time to
watch the forecast through the week, but for those looking
to get some pleasure boating done next weekend, keep this
potential in mind.

Aviation (20 06z through 21 06z)...

high level cirrus dissipating early this morning withVFR
conditions prevailing region-wide. A few isolated storms
over the coastal waters should stay offshore through 12-15z.

A typical distribution of mainly afternoon evening storms
expected for Monday, with greatest concentration of storms
along and inland from the i-75 corridor. Winds light E SE in
the morning shift onshore near the coast in the afternoon.

Showers storms dissipate within a few hours of sunset this
evening. Remove mention of vcts after 01z.

Marine...

weak high pressure will remain over the region through
the middle of the week keeping winds and seas low. Winds and seas
may briefly become higher in the vicinity of scattered
thunderstorms.

Fire weather...

abundant low level moisture keeps relative humidity values well above
critical levels through the week. A typical summer distribution of
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected each day.

Fog potential... Fog is not expected the next several days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 91 77 91 78 50 40 30 20
fmy 89 75 91 76 60 20 40 30
gif 91 75 92 75 60 50 40 30
srq 89 77 89 78 40 30 20 10
bkv 91 74 91 75 50 50 40 10
spg 91 78 90 79 40 30 20 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through this evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal lee-coastal sarasota.

Gulf waters... None.

Aviation... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLBF1 4 mi67 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 88°F 1018.8 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 7 mi37 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 85°F 88°F1020.1 hPa
MTBF1 10 mi31 min SE 2.9 G 6 84°F 1020.1 hPa73°F
GCTF1 12 mi31 min 82°F 74°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 13 mi31 min SSE 6 G 8 82°F 88°F1020.2 hPa
PMAF1 13 mi31 min 83°F 87°F1020 hPa
42098 15 mi31 min 87°F1 ft
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 16 mi37 min E 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 88°F1020.1 hPa
MCYF1 21 mi31 min 88°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 21 mi43 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 28 mi67 min S 2.9 G 4.1 82°F 1020.3 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 41 mi91 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 86°F1019.2 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 47 mi127 min Calm G 2.9 84°F 1019.6 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 49 mi61 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 83°F 89°F74°F

Wind History for St. Petersburg, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL7 mi68 minSSE 610.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1020.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL12 mi68 minSE 310.00 miFair84°F73°F70%1019.7 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL14 mi2.1 hrsESE 410.00 miFair81°F74°F82%1019.6 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL19 mi68 minS 310.00 miA Few Clouds85°F71°F63%1020 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL20 mi66 minSE 3 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E4E3SE53W9NE6S9
G16
SE12SE10--------------------S8SE6S5S6
1 day agoE3--SE4E4S3W7W7W7W8W6NW10------------------SE3S3SE3Calm
2 days agoSE8SE6SE4SE3S3CalmCalmCalmW8SW73NW4N5N4N4CalmN3N3E4N4E6SE6SE6S5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Petersburg Beach Causeway, Florida
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St. Petersburg Beach Causeway
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Mon -- 01:57 AM EDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:09 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.51.51.61.81.922.12.121.81.61.310.70.50.40.40.60.811.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Mon -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.05 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:33 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.100.10.30.50.70.80.70.40.1-0.3-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.5-00.50.811

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.