Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orchid, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 5:16 AM EST (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 8:09PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 350 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 350 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to fresh onshore breeze across the local waters will gradually decrease into late day as the remnants of a cold front over south florida shifts back north into central florida. This remnant boundary will then linger across the area through mid week. Low pressure will develop along the front, over the eastern gulf of mexico, and eventually move east across florida by late week, keeping rain chances elevated through Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and seas 6 to 7 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday november 20th. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orchid, FL
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location: 27.76, -80.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 210832
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
332 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Discussion
Increased rain chances this week...

today... The ingredients are coming together for high rain chances
today as east central fl will be on the ascendant side of mid upper
level trough across the gulf of mexico, under the right entrance
region of the upper jet and also in a pattern of low level warm
advection as winds become se-s in the h9-h8 layer as the remnants of
an old frontal boundary lift back northward across SRN sections into
the afternoon. Mid level temps will remain cold from from -12 to -13
c at 500 mbs increasing instability which should allow lightning
generation with deeper convection and a few strong storms. Expect
initial convection to develop across the south this morning and then
transition to central NRN sections from mid day into the afternoon.

Will continue rain chances in the likely range with 70 percent
across much of the forecast area. Highs will reach the mid 70s north
to upper 70s to around 80 south.

Tonight... Deeper large scale lift associated with the upper jet and
mid level vort energy will move northeast into the atlantic through
midnight but ongoing convection may linger across NRN sections into
evening before moving offshore. GFS nam indicate a sfc low pressure
area developing offshore across the atlantic well northeast of the
forecast areas with a trailing stationary boundary into the area. A
light pressure pattern, elevated low level moisture and clearing mid
level cloudiness should allow late night stratus and fog to develop
across NRN interior sections. Lows will be in the lower 60s.

Wed... A quasi-stationary weak frontal boundary remains across
central florida Wednesday. Deeper moisture will have lifted
northeast by early morning with initial disturbance to cross the
region. However, models still have sufficient moisture in place with
the lingering boundary for the development of scattered showers and
possibly a few storms across the area, mainly into the afternoon
when daytime instability will be maximized. Highest rain chances, up
to 40 percent, will exist across northern portions of central
florida where greatest moisture will reside. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 70s across northern areas where rain chances and
cloud cover are forecast to be highest, with low 80s farther south
of orlando. Lows are forecast in the low to mid 60s.

Thu-fri... Mid level S W trough crossing the gulf of mexico is
forecast to induce a weak low across the eastern gulf, along the
stalled boundary extended across the area. Latest GFS takes this low
farther north across north fl Thursday, while the ECMWF remains more
consistent with a slower and farther southward progression across
the state into late week. Regardless, rain chances will remain high
across the area Thursday, up to 60-70 percent, with isolated storms
developing. Cold mid level temperatures and a more disturbed flow
aloft, may lead to a few stronger storms, but cloud cover and
limited instability should keep any severe potential low. Base of
trough shifts across the state Friday, keeping rain chances
elevated, and also keeping the potential for isolated storms across
much of the region.

Sat-mon... Mid to upper level troughing across the eastern u.S. Will
gradually push eastward and offshore into early next week. Low will
shift east and drag front south of the area by early Saturday with
drier air ending rain chances across the area into the weekend.

Another dry reinforcing cold front will then cross the area into
late weekend early next week. Highs will range from the low to mid
70s Saturday to mid to upper 60s Monday behind reinforcing surge of
cooler air. Lows in the low to mid 50s Saturday night will drop to
the 40s to low 50s over much of the region into Sunday night.

Aviation
Mid level cloudiness will increase into late morning with scattered
convection initially developing from kvrb-ksua and then
transitioning northward by mid day into the afternoon. Prevalent
cloudiness will mostly beVFR above 3000 ft though lower cloud
cigs vsbys will be associated with scattered shra with low chance of
tsra into the afternoon hours. A chance of showers will linger
across NRN terminals into the evening with stratus and fog
development expected for NRN terminals mainly aft 08z.

Marine
Today... Ese winds to 15-20 knots offshore into the morning will
decrease some into the afternoon with seas slowly decreasing. Will
continue SCA for sebastian to jupiter offshore segments into the
afternoon otherwise scec conditions expected.

Tonight... A weak boundary across the waters and weakening pressure
pattern will allow winds to lighten and seas to continue to
decrease, ranging from 3-4 ft near shore to around 5 ft offshore
past midnight.

Wed-sat... Unsettled weather pattern to persist through mid to late
week with rain chances remaining elevated as weak low develops over
the eastern gulf, along stalled boundary across the region, and
shifts eastward through florida. Wind direction across the waters
will highly depend on where boundary stalls and where low crosses
the state, but overall wind speeds expected to remain below 15 knots
for the most part with seas 3-5 feet. Northerly surge as front
shifts south across the waters late week may build seas up to 6 to 7
feet Friday and Saturday, mainly across volusia waters and offshore.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 76 62 76 64 70 40 40 50
mco 77 62 79 63 70 30 40 30
mlb 78 63 79 66 70 30 30 40
vrb 80 63 80 66 70 20 30 40
lee 75 61 77 62 70 30 40 40
sfb 77 61 78 62 70 40 40 30
orl 77 63 78 63 70 30 40 30
fpr 80 63 80 65 70 20 20 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for sebastian
inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line
to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.Early
short term aviation... Volkmer
mid-long term... .Weitlich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 7 mi31 min E 14 74°F 74°F1017 hPa
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 18 mi46 min 74°F6 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 46 mi46 min E 8 G 11
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 53 mi36 min E 16 G 19 76°F 77°F1017 hPa63°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 82 mi46 min E 23 G 27 76°F 78°F1015.8 hPa67°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi23 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F63°F71%1016.1 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL18 mi23 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F76%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE10NE9E12NE11E14E11
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1 day agoCalmSW3W3W6W8SW11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4Calm4S7E7SE8E9E7SE8SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S3SW5SW3W3W4W6

Tide / Current Tables for Wabasso, Indian River, Florida
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Wabasso
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EST     0.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:47 PM EST     0.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:12 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.10.20.20.20.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-00

Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian Inlet bridge, Indian River, Florida
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Sebastian Inlet bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:35 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EST     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.10.40.91.21.210.60.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.400.40.60.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.