Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orchid, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:17PM Sunday September 23, 2018 4:37 PM EDT (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:48PMMoonset 4:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain north of the area through much of the week. This will maintain a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the waters. An east-northeast swell will keep seas elevated 3 to 5 feet through early this week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, september 22nd. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orchid, FL
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location: 27.76, -80.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 231825
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
225 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Discussion
Current-tonight... The florida peninsula remains sandwiched in
between the upper low slowly cruising westward over the central gulf
and the deep high pressure ridge over the western atlc, situated off
of the carolinas. This continues to keep a deep, but light onshore
wind component across ecfl. The 15z kxmr sounding shows a pwat of
1.92 inches and 700 500mb temperatures of +9.3c -6.7c respectively.

Kmlb WSR-88D shows the majority of convection moving into wcntrl fl
this afternoon. It would appear that only an isolated threat for
showers storms remains through sunset. This as a drier layer of air
infiltrates the region. The GOES total precipitable water product
shows this nicely. Another surge of moisture will follow behind the
drying for very late overnight into early Mon morning across the
local coastal waters and immediate coast. Lows will range from the
low to mid 70s for most locations.

Previous extended forecast discussion...

Monday... Onshore flow will persist and the GFS still shows a slight
low level wind surge with a band of enhanced moisture over the
coastal waters moving ashore and inland. This moisture band is
evident on satellite and there isn't much deep convection associated
with it. However, as the moisture convergence reaches the local
area, temps aloft will be cooler compared to where the band is at
now. Expect some flare up of convection over the coastal waters
early in the morning and inland with daytime heating. MOS pops,
which have been too high of late, are 40-50% and will trend them
down to 40% which is still above climo for late september.

Tuesday-Saturday... Little change from the pattern that has been
previously advertised. Low pressure currently south of bermuda is
still shown moving west beneath atlantic ridge and then curving
north as it approaches the eastern seaboard, while gradually
weakening into an inverted trough. A weak southern extension of the
low trough may affect the local area on Tue and keep moisture at or
above normal with pops 30-40%.

The models still show an overall moisture decrease wed-sat as a mid
level high pressure ridge builds over the region. The GFS shows
ribbons of more moist and drier air embedded in a southeast east
wind flow, so will stay close to MOS and climo with pops no greater
than 30% by late week.

Little change in temperatures is indicated. The onshore flow will
continue to keep min temps mostly in the mid 70s with a few upper
70s along the coast. High temps will be a few degrees above normal,
mostly in the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland.

Aviation Isolated showers will continue to quickly move towards
the west this afternoon from kmco-kmlb southward. The majority of
the showers will either move west of the area or dissipate by
22 20z. Afterwards,VFR conditions are forecast for the remainder of
the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms forecast for Monday afternoon.

Marine Afternoon-tonight... High pressure ridging remains north
providing a deep onshore flow across the local coastal waters with
wind speeds up to 10-15 kts at times over the open atlc. Mainly
isolated showers storms through the period. Seas will range from 3-4
feet near shore and up to 4-5 feet offshore in a persistent ene long
period swell.

Previous extended marine forecast discussion...

Monday-Thursday... East flow will persist on mon, likely at 10-15
knots as a weak surge pushes across the waters. A 40% coverage of
showers with a slight chance of storms is indicated. The pressure
gradient should weaken Tue as a weak inverted trough moves across
the waters. On wed, the winds will become southeast-south, then
southeast-east on Thu with speeds continuing around 10 knots. Drying
should decrease the coverage of showers storms. Seas will continue 3-
5 feet mon-tue as a northeast swell persists, then become 3-4 feet
wed-thu.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 76 87 73 89 20 40 20 30
mco 74 91 74 92 10 50 10 40
mlb 77 89 76 89 20 40 20 30
vrb 74 86 75 89 20 40 20 30
lee 75 91 74 93 10 50 10 40
sfb 74 90 74 92 10 50 10 30
orl 75 91 75 92 10 50 10 40
fpr 73 88 74 89 20 40 20 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

All forecast grids... Sedlock
radar impact weather... Sharp
aviation... Rodriguez
public service... Combs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 7 mi38 min E 7 83°F 83°F1015 hPa (-2.0)
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 18 mi38 min 85°F3 ft
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 45 mi38 min 86°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 46 mi38 min 85°F 86°F1016.6 hPa (-1.7)
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 53 mi38 min E 7.8 G 12 83°F 1015.1 hPa (-2.0)73°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 82 mi38 min 82°F 88°F1015 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi45 minE 46.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze82°F77°F85%1014.6 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL18 mi45 minE 810.00 miFair86°F75°F72%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E7E9E8E6E6E9E7E4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4NE3CalmE3N4E5E10E4
1 day agoNE9E13E12E11E11E10E12E9E6E5E4NE4E5NE5NE7NE8N5NE11NE6NE9E11
G19
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2 days agoE8E9NE9E7E5E5E7E5E5E4CalmS4CalmN3CalmE6E6E6----NE11E12
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Wabasso, Indian River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian Inlet bridge, Indian River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.