Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bear Creek, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:39PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:25 PM EST (03:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:48AMMoonset 4:07PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 829 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast around 10 knots late. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..West winds around 5 knots then becoming north late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 829 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis.. A weak front will continue to slowly sag through the eastern gulf overnight. High pressure will build into the region early Saturday with winds and seas veering north to northeasterly. High pressure to move into western atlantic with east winds Sunday. Evening surges will briefly increase winds and seas this weekend into Monday. Another weak front will move into the region early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bear Creek, FL
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location: 27.76, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 160145
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
845 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Update (rest of the overnight)
Inherited forecast remains on track for the overnight hours.

Made minor adjustments to the skycover forecast north of
brooksville toward more clouds next few hours, and also
minor changes to temperature profile given faster decrease
in temps seen so far this evening.

Weak frontal system will continue to slowly drift south
across the region overnight. Little low level focus with
this boundary and complete lack of upper level support
should keep this a dry frontal passage (no more than a few
sprinkles).

A slight increase in northerly winds speeds should be
expected behind the front over the marine area... Especially
to the north of tarpon springs, but at this time speeds over
15 knots are not expected.

Aviation (16 00z through 17 06z)
Vrf conditions expected all sites through the remainder of
the evening. Patchy MVFR ifr vsbys CIGS in fog is forecast
along and south of the i-4 corridor... Mainly for the
klal kpgd terminals aft 08z through about 13z. Vrf expected
to return to all sites by mid-morning Saturday and prevail
through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light
through the period.

Prev discussion... Issued 142 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
short term (this afternoon-Saturday)...

water vapor imagery and upper air plots showing upper
low continues to spin over mexico while great lakes upper
trough swings well NE of the region keeping wsw flow aloft
over the gulf and state this afternoon-evening. Western
upper low to slowly move eastward Saturday with ridging
beginning to build from the N carib over the state.

At the surface the weak slow moving cold front continues to
sag into the fl big bend and c gulf this afternoon. Shearing
upper support to push frontal boundary down the fl peninsula
tonight with only about a 10% chance of light rain ahead of
and along the front. Some moisture pooling ahead of the
front to produce patchy fog especially over southern half of
the forecast area and fog prone areas overnight. Weak high
pressure centered in the southern plains this afternoon to
build into the region behind the front tonight into
Saturday morning bringing slightly drier airmass to the
area. Temps tonight to range from near normal over the
nature coast to above normal in SW fl. On Saturday, expect
passing cirrus overhead with comfortable humidity levels
and temps around seasonal averages.

Mid term long term (Saturday night - Friday)...

the period begins with surface high pressure off the mid-
atlantic coast with easterly flow and dry conditions. A
shortwave moving through the southern plains will help to
amplify a ridge across the southeast and this will promote
well above average temperatures to return to the area for
the first part of the week.

Model agreement begins to diverge somewhat by Wednesday as the
gfs canadian suggests a weak cold front will work its way across the
peninsula while the euro is never able to break the ridge down and
keeps precipitation to the north of florida. With the operational
ecmwf being on the drier warmer side of its ensemble spread, and the
gfs suggesting at least some synoptic support from a progressive
shortwave, will keep low-medium pops in the forecast for now.

Regardless, this front will not have a significant impact on
temperatures and dewpoints... Another deep ridge builds back
in to close out the work week.

Marine...

a weak front will slowly sag through the gulf this afternoon
into tonight with westerly winds and seas ahead of the front.

High pressure will build into the region late tonight through
Saturday with winds and seas veering ne-e. High pressure to
move into W atlantic with E winds and seas sun. Evening surges
will briefing increase winds and seas this weekend into Monday.

Another weak front will move into the region early next week.

Fire weather...

patchy fog possible tonight especially over inland and southern
fog prone areas. Drier airmass to filter into the region Saturday
with rhs dropping into the mid 30% range over the N nature coast.

Low level moisture and temps to increase Sunday through early
next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 75 56 73 58 10 10 0 0
fmy 76 57 77 59 10 0 0 0
gif 75 53 73 55 10 0 0 0
srq 75 56 73 57 10 10 0 0
bkv 75 49 71 51 10 10 0 0
spg 74 56 72 59 10 10 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation... Mroczka
previous discussion... Davis norman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for St. Petersburg, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL5 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1020.9 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL10 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1021.5 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL13 mi89 minN 010.00 miFair59°F56°F90%1021.3 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL18 mi30 minN 010.00 mi61°F60°F100%1021.7 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL18 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair66°F57°F73%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S8S7S9S10S11S8S8S11NW6SW7S10SW6SW8W6W9NW7W7W3CalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoSW3SW3SW4SW4S6S8S9S7S7S5S7S6S10S9W11W10SW14SW9S11S9S10S10S8S7
2 days agoN7N7N6N6N4N8N7N8N8N9NE10NE11NE9E6E8S8S7N4NW5NW4N3CalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Gulfport, Florida
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Gulfport
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:38 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:01 PM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.20.80.40-0.2-0.2-00.30.611.21.31.31.21.1111.21.41.7222

Tide / Current Tables for Port Manatee, Tampa Bay, Florida Current
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Port Manatee
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:02 AM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:54 AM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.20 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:02 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:33 PM EST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.20.60.910.80.60.2-0-0.2-0.2-00.30.50.70.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.