Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 6:47AM||Sunset 8:27PM||Saturday July 21, 2018 3:03 PM EDT (19:03 UTC)||Moonrise 2:27PM||Moonset 1:08AM||Illumination 64%|
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|GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 249 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018 |
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening. Numerous showers. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
|GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 249 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018 |
Synopsis..Elevated winds and choppy seas will continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with periods of showers and Thunderstorms likely. Winds will increase to cautionary levels tonight for the gulf waters north of tarpon springs and then increase farther south Sunday into Monday.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Petersburg, FLHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus62 ktbw 211408|
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
1008 am edt Sat jul 21 2018
14z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing an unusually
complex and amplified mid upper level pattern over north
america for the last half of july. The most prominent
features defining the synoptic pattern over the eastern half
of the nation include a large ridge over the central part of
the county and downstream troughing anchored by a large
closed low over the great lakes region. Between these two
features we find strong upper flow diving southeastward
over the middle ms and tn valleys. This strong flow will
eventually help to amplify the eastern trough down all the
way to the eastern gulf of mexico... Which is pretty unusual
for this time of year. The impacts of this digging trough
will be discussed further in the short term and long term
discussions below. Other smaller feature of note to our
forecast today is a weak elongated shortwave impulse
stretching SW to NE over the eastern gulf and i-4 corridor.
This impulse helped fuel some of the early morning storms.
Latest WV imagery and rap forecasts suggest this feature is
continuing to slowly pivot southward. As this evolution
occurs, any synoptic forcing for ascent ahead of its
axis... And resulting deeper moisture will also pivot
southward. In its wake we see a narrow corridor of mid upper
level ridging building into the northern central
peninsula... And resulting subsidence drying. With all this
in mind... Have trended toward a faster decrease in rain
chances for the tampa bay i-4 corridor and northward for the
second half of the day. This is not to say we won't still
see a few passing showers... However the coverage and
frequency appears as though it will be significantly less
than on Friday. Better rain chances and shower coverage will
exist along the suncoast and interior south-central
peninsula (especially once we get a few hours of heating) in
closer proximity to the lifting mechanism of the upper
Closer to the surface... W SW flow remain in place between
the subtropical ridge axis over the fl straits and a series
of subtle trouging features to our north.
Later in the day... The eventual passing of the upper
shortwave... Even around fort myers... Combined with sea-
breeze divergence behind the front and loss of energy from
earlier convective activity will all help to decrease
shower coverage for the entire area.
Earlier hints at some enhancement for convective activity
related to the remnants of an MCS over central ga have
shifted east NE with the last several rap hrrr runs, and
appears as though the storm threat to our northern nature
coast zones late in the day is decreasing.
Short term (tonight through Sunday)
Currently not expecting a whole lot of eventful weather
around the area for this evening. A few showers certainly
possible... Especially down toward coastal lee charlotte
counties, but generally benign and muggy for a few hours
with the long fetch flow still off the gulf. As we head
through the night... The first signs of the eastern trough's
amplification south will be felt. Shortwave ridging over
much our the area this evening will quickly push
southward... As the trough base dips toward the NE gulf coast
and the deep layer mid upper flow becomes increasingly
cyclonic overhead. This cyclonic flow will be most
pronounced over northern florida by sunrise... But at least
some influence will extend further south... And expand
southward through the day Sunday. Westerly low level flow
regime is already climo favored for late night morning
showers storms to move ashore off the gulf. Give this
regime... Any added synoptic support will usually results in
an active shower storm pattern. By Sunday morning we will
see both deep layer support setting up... And many guidance
members are suggesting a rather broad region of upper level
diffluence setting up. With all this in mind... Would expect
a fairly active morning in terms of showers. These forecasts
are always difficult... As subtle features within the deep
layer flow can end up favoring shower consolidation in one
location vs another... When the background fields looks
similar. This meso-scale forecasting usually needs to be
closer in time to accurately predict... Unless a strong
signal exists in the convective allowing guidance... Which
currently it does not. For now the forecast will show a
broad swath of sct-nmrs showers storms developing onshore
after midnight and spreading further inland after sunrise.
Will want to see the 12z high res guidance suite for later
Sunday before going strong in the forecast one way or the
other. Usually westerly flow results in very low pops near
the coast by the later afternoon hours as activity and
diffuse sea-breeze head well inland. However, given the
upper support overhead... We may (and I think we will) keep
at least sct shower production going across the eastern gulf|
coastal zones throughout Sunday... Only to increase in
coverage once again Sunday night.
Very unusual pattern will be in place for the first part of
the long term period. Deep mid upper level troughing is
unanimously forecast by the ensemble guidance to set up over
the deep south eastern gulf through the first half of the
week. While initial thoughts would head toward... "it's going
to rain the whole time"... A closer examination of the
guidance shows a much more complex situation unfolding.
Certainly, the threat for some very heavy rainfall is there,
and I am expecting it, but the sharpness of the trough and
its non-progressive status will lead to individual shortwave
impulses embedded within the larger flow having more
influence on enhanced lift suppressed lift... Compared the
larger scale trough feature itself. Therefore, although rain
chances look to be quite high early next week when looked
at an individual day as a whole, the actual forecast should
be looked at as wet periods of time and dry periods of time
any given day, and likely not a total washout. When it does
rain, and all the ingredients are in place, the bands have
the potential to be quite heavy. For example, most of the
guidance has a healthy moisture gradient across the region
Monday (dry north and wet south). Through the day, we see
good support for a well defined PV anomaly to drop down into
the NE gulf, with favorable jet dynamics for enhanced lift.
Where this moisture is most favorable could tap into these
unusual july dynamics and produce some hefty rain totals. It
is simply too early to try and get this type of detail of
when and where into the forecast. The message will be that
conditions in the general vicinity of west-central sw
florida will support localized flooding concerns. As we know
more information and confidence increases, we will pass it
This type of sct-nmrs shower pattern associated with the
deep trough will hold in place through Wednesday, before
most guidance members suggest the trough will deamplify and
As it stands now, the second half of the week looks to get
back to a more typical summer pattern... As upper ridging
builds overhead and the subtropical surface ridge again
shifts back north over the peninsula
Aviation (21 12z through 22 12z)
Greater concentration of shower storms today looks to shift
south from the i-4 corridor toward kpgd and fort myers.
Ktpa kpie klal still expecting passing showers, but with
less frequency after late morning than previous days.
Outside of the passing showers all terminals should
generally see higher end MVFR > 2kft toVFR conditions.
Winds SW 8-12 knots through the day. Lessing shower coverage
for all by early evening with a decrease in winds. Renewed
threat for a passing storms moving ashore late at night into
Sunday morning for all terminals.
Elevated winds and choppy seas will be the rule through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds are
expected to increase tonight to cautionary levels across
much of the forecast waters out of the west... And remain at
or above 15 knots into Monday.
No fire weather concerns expected through the next several
days as relative humidity remain well above critical levels
and wetting rains are forecast for most areas each of the
next several days.
No significant visibility issues are expected the next
Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 80 89 80 60 40 50 40
fmy 90 78 89 78 50 40 50 40
gif 88 77 91 77 60 20 50 20
srq 88 81 89 80 70 40 50 30
bkv 88 78 90 76 50 30 50 40
spg 87 81 88 80 60 40 50 40
Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
Gulf waters... None.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL||1 mi||40 min||W 12 G 17||88°F||87°F||1014.6 hPa|
|CLBF1||4 mi||70 min||W 12 G 14||90°F||1014.1 hPa|
|OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL||7 mi||34 min||WNW 9.9 G 17||87°F||87°F||1014.4 hPa|
|MTBF1||8 mi||34 min||WNW 13 G 16||85°F||1014.7 hPa||76°F|
|PMAF1||10 mi||34 min||85°F||88°F||1014.7 hPa|
|MCYF1||14 mi||34 min||87°F|
|TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL||15 mi||46 min||SW 7 G 12|
|TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL||15 mi||34 min||E 11 G 15|
|CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL||18 mi||40 min||WSW 9.9 G 12||85°F||87°F||1014.6 hPa|
|42098||21 mi||34 min||87°F||4 ft|
|FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL||28 mi||70 min||WNW 8.9 G 12||87°F||1015.2 hPa|
|42013 - C10 - Navy-2||44 mi||94 min||W 14 G 18||87°F||1015.6 hPa|
|ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL||46 mi||130 min||NW 9.9 G 12||87°F||1014.8 hPa|
|VENF1 - Venice, FL||49 mi||64 min||W 17 G 18||86°F||87°F||78°F|
Wind History for St. Petersburg, FL(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Albert Whitted Airport, FL||1 mi||71 min||W 13||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||88°F||77°F||70%||1014.2 hPa|
|Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL||8 mi||68 min||W 9||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||88°F||77°F||71%||1014.8 hPa|
|St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL||10 mi||71 min||NW 12||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||89°F||78°F||70%||1014.6 hPa|
|Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL||14 mi||69 min||WNW 8||10.00 mi||Fair||86°F||80°F||84%||1014.6 hPa|
|Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL||15 mi||71 min||W 11||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||89°F||77°F||68%||1014.4 hPa|
|Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL||22 mi||69 min||SW 7||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||88°F||78°F||75%||1014.6 hPa|
Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W|
|2 days ago||SW||W||W||W||SW||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||SW||W||Calm||S||W||SW||SW||SW||W||W||W |
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GOES Local Image of Southeast EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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