Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Petersburg, FL

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What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday July 21, 2018 3:03 PM EDT (19:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 249 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening. Numerous showers. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 249 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis..Elevated winds and choppy seas will continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with periods of showers and Thunderstorms likely. Winds will increase to cautionary levels tonight for the gulf waters north of tarpon springs and then increase farther south Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Petersburg, FL
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location: 27.77, -82.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 211408
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
1008 am edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
14z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing an unusually
complex and amplified mid upper level pattern over north
america for the last half of july. The most prominent
features defining the synoptic pattern over the eastern half
of the nation include a large ridge over the central part of
the county and downstream troughing anchored by a large
closed low over the great lakes region. Between these two
features we find strong upper flow diving southeastward
over the middle ms and tn valleys. This strong flow will
eventually help to amplify the eastern trough down all the
way to the eastern gulf of mexico... Which is pretty unusual
for this time of year. The impacts of this digging trough
will be discussed further in the short term and long term
discussions below. Other smaller feature of note to our
forecast today is a weak elongated shortwave impulse
stretching SW to NE over the eastern gulf and i-4 corridor.

This impulse helped fuel some of the early morning storms.

Latest WV imagery and rap forecasts suggest this feature is
continuing to slowly pivot southward. As this evolution
occurs, any synoptic forcing for ascent ahead of its
axis... And resulting deeper moisture will also pivot
southward. In its wake we see a narrow corridor of mid upper
level ridging building into the northern central
peninsula... And resulting subsidence drying. With all this
in mind... Have trended toward a faster decrease in rain
chances for the tampa bay i-4 corridor and northward for the
second half of the day. This is not to say we won't still
see a few passing showers... However the coverage and
frequency appears as though it will be significantly less
than on Friday. Better rain chances and shower coverage will
exist along the suncoast and interior south-central
peninsula (especially once we get a few hours of heating) in
closer proximity to the lifting mechanism of the upper
trough.

Closer to the surface... W SW flow remain in place between
the subtropical ridge axis over the fl straits and a series
of subtle trouging features to our north.

Later in the day... The eventual passing of the upper
shortwave... Even around fort myers... Combined with sea-
breeze divergence behind the front and loss of energy from
earlier convective activity will all help to decrease
shower coverage for the entire area.

Earlier hints at some enhancement for convective activity
related to the remnants of an MCS over central ga have
shifted east NE with the last several rap hrrr runs, and
appears as though the storm threat to our northern nature
coast zones late in the day is decreasing.

Short term (tonight through Sunday)
Currently not expecting a whole lot of eventful weather
around the area for this evening. A few showers certainly
possible... Especially down toward coastal lee charlotte
counties, but generally benign and muggy for a few hours
with the long fetch flow still off the gulf. As we head
through the night... The first signs of the eastern trough's
amplification south will be felt. Shortwave ridging over
much our the area this evening will quickly push
southward... As the trough base dips toward the NE gulf coast
and the deep layer mid upper flow becomes increasingly
cyclonic overhead. This cyclonic flow will be most
pronounced over northern florida by sunrise... But at least
some influence will extend further south... And expand
southward through the day Sunday. Westerly low level flow
regime is already climo favored for late night morning
showers storms to move ashore off the gulf. Give this
regime... Any added synoptic support will usually results in
an active shower storm pattern. By Sunday morning we will
see both deep layer support setting up... And many guidance
members are suggesting a rather broad region of upper level
diffluence setting up. With all this in mind... Would expect
a fairly active morning in terms of showers. These forecasts
are always difficult... As subtle features within the deep
layer flow can end up favoring shower consolidation in one
location vs another... When the background fields looks
similar. This meso-scale forecasting usually needs to be
closer in time to accurately predict... Unless a strong
signal exists in the convective allowing guidance... Which
currently it does not. For now the forecast will show a
broad swath of sct-nmrs showers storms developing onshore
after midnight and spreading further inland after sunrise.

Will want to see the 12z high res guidance suite for later
Sunday before going strong in the forecast one way or the
other. Usually westerly flow results in very low pops near
the coast by the later afternoon hours as activity and
diffuse sea-breeze head well inland. However, given the
upper support overhead... We may (and I think we will) keep
at least sct shower production going across the eastern gulf
coastal zones throughout Sunday... Only to increase in
coverage once again Sunday night.

Long term
Very unusual pattern will be in place for the first part of
the long term period. Deep mid upper level troughing is
unanimously forecast by the ensemble guidance to set up over
the deep south eastern gulf through the first half of the
week. While initial thoughts would head toward... "it's going
to rain the whole time"... A closer examination of the
guidance shows a much more complex situation unfolding.

Certainly, the threat for some very heavy rainfall is there,
and I am expecting it, but the sharpness of the trough and
its non-progressive status will lead to individual shortwave
impulses embedded within the larger flow having more
influence on enhanced lift suppressed lift... Compared the
larger scale trough feature itself. Therefore, although rain
chances look to be quite high early next week when looked
at an individual day as a whole, the actual forecast should
be looked at as wet periods of time and dry periods of time
any given day, and likely not a total washout. When it does
rain, and all the ingredients are in place, the bands have
the potential to be quite heavy. For example, most of the
guidance has a healthy moisture gradient across the region
Monday (dry north and wet south). Through the day, we see
good support for a well defined PV anomaly to drop down into
the NE gulf, with favorable jet dynamics for enhanced lift.

Where this moisture is most favorable could tap into these
unusual july dynamics and produce some hefty rain totals. It
is simply too early to try and get this type of detail of
when and where into the forecast. The message will be that
conditions in the general vicinity of west-central sw
florida will support localized flooding concerns. As we know
more information and confidence increases, we will pass it
along.

This type of sct-nmrs shower pattern associated with the
deep trough will hold in place through Wednesday, before
most guidance members suggest the trough will deamplify and
retrograde westward.

As it stands now, the second half of the week looks to get
back to a more typical summer pattern... As upper ridging
builds overhead and the subtropical surface ridge again
shifts back north over the peninsula

Aviation (21 12z through 22 12z)
Greater concentration of shower storms today looks to shift
south from the i-4 corridor toward kpgd and fort myers.

Ktpa kpie klal still expecting passing showers, but with
less frequency after late morning than previous days.

Outside of the passing showers all terminals should
generally see higher end MVFR > 2kft toVFR conditions.

Winds SW 8-12 knots through the day. Lessing shower coverage
for all by early evening with a decrease in winds. Renewed
threat for a passing storms moving ashore late at night into
Sunday morning for all terminals.

Marine
Elevated winds and choppy seas will be the rule through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds are
expected to increase tonight to cautionary levels across
much of the forecast waters out of the west... And remain at
or above 15 knots into Monday.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns expected through the next several
days as relative humidity remain well above critical levels
and wetting rains are forecast for most areas each of the
next several days.

No significant visibility issues are expected the next
several days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 80 89 80 60 40 50 40
fmy 90 78 89 78 50 40 50 40
gif 88 77 91 77 60 20 50 20
srq 88 81 89 80 70 40 50 30
bkv 88 78 90 76 50 30 50 40
spg 87 81 88 80 60 40 50 40

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal sarasota.

Gulf waters... None.

Mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 1 mi40 min W 12 G 17 88°F 87°F1014.6 hPa
CLBF1 4 mi70 min W 12 G 14 90°F 1014.1 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi34 min WNW 9.9 G 17 87°F 87°F1014.4 hPa
MTBF1 8 mi34 min WNW 13 G 16 85°F 1014.7 hPa76°F
PMAF1 10 mi34 min 85°F 88°F1014.7 hPa
MCYF1 14 mi34 min 87°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 15 mi46 min SW 7 G 12
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 15 mi34 min E 11 G 15
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 18 mi40 min WSW 9.9 G 12 85°F 87°F1014.6 hPa
42098 21 mi34 min 87°F4 ft
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 28 mi70 min WNW 8.9 G 12 87°F 1015.2 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 44 mi94 min W 14 G 18 87°F1015.6 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 46 mi130 min NW 9.9 G 12 87°F 1014.8 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 49 mi64 min W 17 G 18 86°F 87°F78°F

Wind History for St. Petersburg, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL1 mi71 minW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1014.2 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL8 mi68 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F71%1014.8 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL10 mi71 minNW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds89°F78°F70%1014.6 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL14 mi69 minWNW 810.00 miFair86°F80°F84%1014.6 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL15 mi71 minW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F77°F68%1014.4 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL22 mi69 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F78°F75%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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W5N4N4W4W4SW4SW4SW4W4SW4W5W6W6NW3W7W8W12W11W12
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1 day agoW12W10
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W8W7W6W6W6SW3SW3W3SW3CalmSW3S10S9S9W4W7SW5SW11W13SW13
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2 days agoSW7W3W5W5SW4W5W7W6W4W5W4W4W4SW3W4CalmS9W8SW9SW11SW7W13W10W12

Tide / Current Tables for St. Petersburg, Tampa Bay, Florida
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St. Petersburg
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Sat -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:03 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.21.111.11.31.51.822.22.22.11.91.61.20.90.60.50.50.70.91.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:52 AM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.50.80.80.60.4-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.400.40.70.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.