Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:08 AM

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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Tonight - Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 141 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
a small craft advisory will remain in effect over the coastal waters through this afternoon as wave heights remain elevated. Wave heights will subside this afternoon, leaving us with light to moderate onshore flow. There is a low to moderate chance of showers and Thunderstorms today through Tuesday. There is medium confidence in patchy to areas of fog late tonight. Weak to moderate onshore flow Tuesday night through Wednesday will strengthen to moderate Wednesday night through Thursday night. Onshore winds back down to weak to moderate Friday into the weekend. There is a low chance, 20 to 30 percent, of showers and Thunderstorms daily Wednesday through Saturday.

FXUS64 KCRP 290751 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 251 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk for severe weather today

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms

- High risk of rip currents today through tonight

- Minor coastal flooding expected today

A mid to upper level trough will continue to swing through Central Texas today sending a shortwave just north of the area which could be enough to trigger some convection today. The chances of thunderstorms will be low, but any storms that do develop could become strong to severe. With that in mind, the Storm Prediction Center has included much of South Texas in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. HiRes models are certainly not overly excited about our chances for any widespread showers with most of the activity developing over the Coastal Bend and over the Coastal Waters. Chances for showers and storms will wane overnight before a low to medium (15-40%)chance of showers and thunderstorms redevelops Tuesday. This looks like a better chance for us to receive some much needed rain as another shortwave moves directly over the area.

While the P-ETSS does indicate a lower tidal forecast for today, long period swell and elevated seas will lead to minor coastal flooding again. It is possible that minor coastal flooding could occur during high tide again on Tuesday, but with tidal levels trending down, long period swell diminishing, and wave heights subsiding, was not comfortable extending the Coastal Flood Advisory beyond tonight. These conditions will also lead to a continued risk of high rip currents through tonight. This will be especially noticeable in any areas of egress from the intracoastal waters as the waters from minor coastal flooding find their way back to the Gulf.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Daily low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over South Texas

▶ Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday and Thursday

An unsettled weather pattern ahead as a sub-tropical jet at 250mb combined with mid-level shortwaves and well above normal moisture will lead to daily low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances across South Texas. Most favorable conditions occur Thursday into Friday as stronger shortwaves combine with an approaching cold front. A deep low over the northern Great Plains swinging eastward on Friday, will reflect a surface cold front into Texas. This cold front will likely come to a halt north of South Texas over the Hill Country but pre-frontal surface troughing leads to an increase to medium rain chances and a slight directional wind shift through Friday. There is a very high (80-95%) chance of SBCAPE over 2000 J/kg across portions of South Texas Wednesday through Friday with a weakening cap during the midday and afternoon hours; this will further favor our thunderstorm chances during the day.

Additional mid-level shortwaves move across the area during the weekend and will therefore maintain a low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms. But confidence lowers heading towards the end of the long term as cap increases, model discrepancies become more apparent, and upper-level ridging amplifies with an embedded shortwave counteracting.

High temperatures range from the mid 80s to mid 90s and induce a moderate risk of heat-related impacts to portions of South Texas through Friday, with greatest concern Wednesday and Thursday across all of South Texas. This risk poses the greatest threat to individuals sensitive to heat and those without effective cooling and/or hydration. Please make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks if outdoors! Last but not least, swell periods near 8 seconds and moderate onshore flow could lead to greater wave runup and an increased risk of minor coastal flooding and rip currents.
However, confidence is low as astronomical tide is lowering through the middle of the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR/IFR CIGs are spreading westward this evening and are expected to reach LRD and COT between 06-09Z. Fog is also expected overnight leading to MVFR VSBYs, occasionally dropping to IFR toward sunrise. COT is expected to have the lowest VSBYs around 1/2SM at times Monday morning. Models continue to indicate iso/sct showers developing across the VCT area overnight into Monday morning, possibly into Monday afternoon. Latest model runs are showing much lower probabilities across the rest of S TX.
Therefore, have left the mention of convection out of the rest of the TAFs for now.

MARINE
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect over the coastal waters through this afternoon as wave heights remain elevated.
Wave heights will subside this afternoon, leaving us with light to moderate onshore flow. There is a low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Tuesday. There is medium confidence in patchy to areas of fog late tonight. Weak to moderate onshore flow Tuesday night through Wednesday will strengthen to moderate Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Onshore winds back down to weak to moderate Friday into the weekend. There is a low chance, 20 to 30 percent, of showers and thunderstorms daily Wednesday through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 89 74 87 74 / 20 10 30 0 Victoria 88 70 86 72 / 20 10 40 0 Laredo 95 74 94 76 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 91 73 89 74 / 30 10 30 0 Rockport 84 74 83 74 / 20 20 40 0 Cotulla 94 74 93 76 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 90 74 89 74 / 30 10 40 0 Navy Corpus 84 74 83 76 / 20 20 40 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ250- 255-270-275.

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Port Ingleside, Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Mon -- 12:54 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:11 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM CDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:31 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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