Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 2:13 PM   Moonset 2:18 AM

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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Tonight - Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 944 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak east-northeast flow is expected today along with a medium to high chance for showers and Thunderstorms over the bays and nearshore waters. A few storms could be strong to severe. Rain chances decrease Friday night. Drier conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves east. Persistent weak to moderate onshore flow and increasing moisture, beginning Monday. Warm conditions are expected Monday through Thursday.

FXUS64 KCRP 171131 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 631 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the southeastern portion of our CWA today.

Rain chances are set to continue today. An outflow boundary originating from an earlier MCS in the Hill Country has moved through South Texas. This boundary intersected an embedded shortwave tracking across the region ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. The atmospheric environment is highly unstable, characterized by ample moisture, with the 00Z CRP sounding indicating over 6000 J/kg of SBCAPE and model PWAT values are ranging from 1.5 - 2.0 inches. However, a strong capping inversion is also present, which may initially inhibit convection.

CAM guidance suggests that convection will begin to develop across Mexico just southwest of our CWA between 08 - 12Z, moving northeastward as the embedded shortwave advances. Additionally, the main trough nearing the region will enhance upper-level diffluence, aided by a 105 - 110 kt upper jet sinking southward. Given these dynamics, there is a low to medium (20 - 50%) probability of shower and thunderstorm development.

This activity could become strong to severe, particularly across the southeastern portions of out CWA where favorable instability and moisture coexist with mid-level lapse rates around 7 - 7.5 C/km and 0 - 6 km bulk shear around 60 - 80 kts. The primary hazards from these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. SPC has placed the southeastern CWA under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather, while the rest of South Texas is in a general thunderstorm risk. The optimal timing for severe weather appears to be from this morning into the afternoon hours, with all activity expected to dissipate and move out of the area by late evening. As this upper-level disturbance moves east, ridging will build in behind, allowing for dominant quasi zonal flow and the return of warm and dry conditions for the weekend.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Thursday across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

A warmer airmass is predicted to develop over the region Monday through Thursday, manifested by an upper ridge that builds over the region, per the GFS/ECMWF. A progressive pattern is expected to remain over the northern approximately 3/4 of the CONUS, with upper disturbances moving close yet remaining north of the CWA
Nevertheless, these disturbances will continue to return flow and increasing moisture over the region beginning Sunday. The GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to increase above normal over the CWA Monday and continue through the remainder of the period. The combination of heating and greater near surface moisture will increase maximum Heat Index values over the CWA WPC continues to predict a 40-70 percent chance that the maximum Heat Index threshold of 110F will be met over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains Monday through Thursday. The NBM continues to predict 8s maximum swell period over the coastal waters Saturday/Sunday, which would increase the risk of rip currents along the Gulf-facing beaches to the Moderate category.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

MVFR will likely prevail through most of this TAF cycle. Terminals over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads may experience brief IFR conditions. There is a low to moderate chance for showers and thunderstorms through the morning for our western sites and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. A few of these could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. Ceilings and visibility could be reduced in and around any thunderstorms. Patchy haze is expected to linger across South Texas, but ceilings and visibility should become VFR by this evening.



MARINE
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Weak east-northeast flow is expected today along with a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms over the bays and nearshore waters. A few storms could be strong to severe. Rain chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions through the weekend. Warm conditions are expected Monday through Thursday, with weak to moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index values 90-95F Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 90 75 94 76 / 50 10 0 0 Victoria 85 71 94 72 / 50 10 0 0 Laredo 91 75 102 76 / 40 10 0 0 Alice 90 72 97 73 / 50 10 0 0 Rockport 88 76 90 77 / 50 20 0 0 Cotulla 90 73 100 75 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 90 74 95 75 / 50 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 79 / 50 20 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Ingleside, Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Fri -- 02:21 AM CDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:59 AM CDT     -0.39 knots Min Ebb
Fri -- 03:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 AM CDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:03 PM CDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM CDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:58 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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