Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sebastian, FL
May 16, 2024 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 1:12 PM Moonset 1:42 AM |
AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
This afternoon - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 5 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and north 1 foot at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, building to 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet in the evening, subsiding to 2 feet after midnight. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds, becoming southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 162021 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 421 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Isolated Strong Storms this Evening Across the Far South
...Warming Temperatures into this Weekend with Heat Index Values as High as the Low 100s....
DISCUSSION
Issued at 414 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Thru Tonight...East coast sea breeze has formed this aftn and is pinned near the coast due to the westerly flow. There is also a Lake Okeechobee breeze boundary extending eastward across southern St Lucie county. GOES-16 total precip water product shows pwats around 1.8" across this area with much drier air across our northern FA. So it is not surprising that the CAMs continue to show an increase in showers and storms along the Treasure coast next few hours given the moisture, strong heating and boundary interactions. Any storms that form in St Lucie or Martin counties will be capable of hail, strong wind gusts and very heavy rain. A brief tornado/waterspout also cannot be ruled out given the locally enhanced low level helicity provided by the sea breeze boundary. Convective threat will end by 10 pm and a quiet overnight is forecast. Added patchy fog across some portions of the area to account for the stalled frontal boundary.
Fri...Some hi-res guidance shows a small MCS tracking E/SE across the NE Gulf early in the day, weakening as it reaches our northern sections during the late morning. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward along with its assocd band of moisture. So have drawn a small 20 PoP across the area for isolated showers and storms mainly in the afternoon. Max temps will be hot with widespread mid 90s, even lower 90s at the coast due to a delayed sea breeze onset. With the increasing dewpoints/humidity, it will feel more oppressive with peak heat indices 100-105.
Saturday-Monday... A mid/upper level ridge will build over the Carribean and the state of Florida through Saturday with 500mb heights expected to reach 592dm over south-central Florida Saturday.
Deep south-southwest flow in place with temperatures in the low to upper 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in some of the highest heat index values this season with values forecast at or just below heat index criteria Saturday afternoon (108 degrees or higher). A mix of sun and clouds is forecast with a moderate to high Heat Risk and High to Extreme Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT).
This level of heat for this time of year affects anyone without adequate cooling and/or hydration, especially those working outside and/or those in direct sunlight for extended periods of time. Remember to take breaks from the heat and to hydrate frequently if spending extended time outdoors this weekend. The sea breeze is expected to push inland and be confined to eastern Volusia, eastern Seminole, eastern Orange, eastern Osceola, and near the Treasure Coast. Isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms are expected to develop along the sea breeze as it collides with the west coat sea breeze into the afternoon hours.
Drier air in the mid to upper levels will be a limiting factor for any potential strong storms to develop with gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning strikes the main concerns.
The previously mentioned ridge is forecast to breakdown Sunday as a shortwave trough deepens over the Southeastern US. South to southwest winds will increase Sunday with a 25-35kt low level jet forecast to develop ahead of a cold front which is forecast to move east-southeast across central Florida Sunday night into Monday.
South to southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph are forecast. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop well ahead of a cold front situated over north Florida Sunday morning, mainly along and to the north of I-4 before scattered showers and lighting storms (PoPs ~40-50%) develop to the south into the afternoon and evening Sunday. Forecast soundings show that dry air (especially in the upper levels) may again be a limiting factor. However, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out with high instability and moderate bulk shear in place.
The main hazards associated with any strong storms that develop will be wind gusts to 40-50mph, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast into Monday as the front slowly sags southeast across east central Florida. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s north of I-4 and the low to mid 90s to the south with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures are forecast to reach the low to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday, then the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday.
Tuesday-Thursday... Low pressure will be slow to depart over the western Atlantic with some of the guidance showing the low strengthening offshore of the Southeastern US into Tuesday.
Northeast flow Tuesday is expected to veer east Wednesday and southeast Thursday as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the state of Florida through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast Tuesday before daily sea breeze driven isolated showers and lightning storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Afternoon highs are forecast to trend warmer each afternoon with the low to upper 80s along the coast and the upper 80s to low 90s inland west of I-95 Tuesday.
Temperatures are then expected to rise into the mid 80s to low 90s Wednesday and the low to upper 90s Thursday under mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid 60s to low 70 under mostly clear skies.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
E to SE wind shift will occur at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze through 22Z. Isold TSRA are possible FPR-SUA and have inserted VCTS there btwn 20Z-24Z. Late tonight, have indicated MVFR VSBYs at fog prone terminals VRB and FPR INVOF stalled frontal boundary. On Fri, the front begins to return northward. A west to southwest flow 5-10 knots will turn onshore (SE) at coastal terminals aft 17Z.
MARINE
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Tonight/Fri...Frontal boundary draped across the southern waters will remain nearly stationary tonight then begin to lift northward Friday. Onshore flow near the coast into this evening behind a sea breeze then flow becomes S/SW overnight less than 10 knots.
Isolated lightning storms are possible along the Treasure coast through 8pm. On Fri, winds become S/SE 10-12 knots nearshore behind the seabreeze and 7-10 knots offshore. Seas 1-2 FT.
Saturday-Monday... High pressure will build over the state of Florida through Saturday before a cold front moves across the local waters Monday. South to southwest winds at 10 to 15kts are forecast to back southeast into Saturday afternoon and veer southwest Sunday at 12-18kts. Winds are forecast to veer west-northwest Monday at 8-12kts. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft Saturday, 2-4ft Sunday, and 3-5ft Monday. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast mid morning and into the afternoon Saturday. A higher chance for scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms exists Sunday into Monday ahead of a cold front. Isolated to scattered storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail, and cloud to water lightning strikes.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Fri...No wind or low RH concerns. Above normal temps in the mid 90s, low 90s coast with min RH values around 40 percent.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 91 73 92 / 0 20 10 30 MCO 69 94 74 96 / 0 20 10 40 MLB 71 90 74 92 / 10 20 20 40 VRB 70 92 73 94 / 10 20 10 40 LEE 69 92 75 93 / 0 20 10 20 SFB 69 94 73 95 / 0 20 10 40 ORL 71 94 75 95 / 0 20 10 40 FPR 69 92 72 94 / 20 20 10 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 421 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Isolated Strong Storms this Evening Across the Far South
...Warming Temperatures into this Weekend with Heat Index Values as High as the Low 100s....
DISCUSSION
Issued at 414 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Thru Tonight...East coast sea breeze has formed this aftn and is pinned near the coast due to the westerly flow. There is also a Lake Okeechobee breeze boundary extending eastward across southern St Lucie county. GOES-16 total precip water product shows pwats around 1.8" across this area with much drier air across our northern FA. So it is not surprising that the CAMs continue to show an increase in showers and storms along the Treasure coast next few hours given the moisture, strong heating and boundary interactions. Any storms that form in St Lucie or Martin counties will be capable of hail, strong wind gusts and very heavy rain. A brief tornado/waterspout also cannot be ruled out given the locally enhanced low level helicity provided by the sea breeze boundary. Convective threat will end by 10 pm and a quiet overnight is forecast. Added patchy fog across some portions of the area to account for the stalled frontal boundary.
Fri...Some hi-res guidance shows a small MCS tracking E/SE across the NE Gulf early in the day, weakening as it reaches our northern sections during the late morning. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward along with its assocd band of moisture. So have drawn a small 20 PoP across the area for isolated showers and storms mainly in the afternoon. Max temps will be hot with widespread mid 90s, even lower 90s at the coast due to a delayed sea breeze onset. With the increasing dewpoints/humidity, it will feel more oppressive with peak heat indices 100-105.
Saturday-Monday... A mid/upper level ridge will build over the Carribean and the state of Florida through Saturday with 500mb heights expected to reach 592dm over south-central Florida Saturday.
Deep south-southwest flow in place with temperatures in the low to upper 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in some of the highest heat index values this season with values forecast at or just below heat index criteria Saturday afternoon (108 degrees or higher). A mix of sun and clouds is forecast with a moderate to high Heat Risk and High to Extreme Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT).
This level of heat for this time of year affects anyone without adequate cooling and/or hydration, especially those working outside and/or those in direct sunlight for extended periods of time. Remember to take breaks from the heat and to hydrate frequently if spending extended time outdoors this weekend. The sea breeze is expected to push inland and be confined to eastern Volusia, eastern Seminole, eastern Orange, eastern Osceola, and near the Treasure Coast. Isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms are expected to develop along the sea breeze as it collides with the west coat sea breeze into the afternoon hours.
Drier air in the mid to upper levels will be a limiting factor for any potential strong storms to develop with gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning strikes the main concerns.
The previously mentioned ridge is forecast to breakdown Sunday as a shortwave trough deepens over the Southeastern US. South to southwest winds will increase Sunday with a 25-35kt low level jet forecast to develop ahead of a cold front which is forecast to move east-southeast across central Florida Sunday night into Monday.
South to southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph are forecast. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop well ahead of a cold front situated over north Florida Sunday morning, mainly along and to the north of I-4 before scattered showers and lighting storms (PoPs ~40-50%) develop to the south into the afternoon and evening Sunday. Forecast soundings show that dry air (especially in the upper levels) may again be a limiting factor. However, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out with high instability and moderate bulk shear in place.
The main hazards associated with any strong storms that develop will be wind gusts to 40-50mph, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast into Monday as the front slowly sags southeast across east central Florida. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s north of I-4 and the low to mid 90s to the south with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures are forecast to reach the low to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday, then the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday.
Tuesday-Thursday... Low pressure will be slow to depart over the western Atlantic with some of the guidance showing the low strengthening offshore of the Southeastern US into Tuesday.
Northeast flow Tuesday is expected to veer east Wednesday and southeast Thursday as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the state of Florida through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast Tuesday before daily sea breeze driven isolated showers and lightning storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Afternoon highs are forecast to trend warmer each afternoon with the low to upper 80s along the coast and the upper 80s to low 90s inland west of I-95 Tuesday.
Temperatures are then expected to rise into the mid 80s to low 90s Wednesday and the low to upper 90s Thursday under mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid 60s to low 70 under mostly clear skies.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
E to SE wind shift will occur at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze through 22Z. Isold TSRA are possible FPR-SUA and have inserted VCTS there btwn 20Z-24Z. Late tonight, have indicated MVFR VSBYs at fog prone terminals VRB and FPR INVOF stalled frontal boundary. On Fri, the front begins to return northward. A west to southwest flow 5-10 knots will turn onshore (SE) at coastal terminals aft 17Z.
MARINE
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Tonight/Fri...Frontal boundary draped across the southern waters will remain nearly stationary tonight then begin to lift northward Friday. Onshore flow near the coast into this evening behind a sea breeze then flow becomes S/SW overnight less than 10 knots.
Isolated lightning storms are possible along the Treasure coast through 8pm. On Fri, winds become S/SE 10-12 knots nearshore behind the seabreeze and 7-10 knots offshore. Seas 1-2 FT.
Saturday-Monday... High pressure will build over the state of Florida through Saturday before a cold front moves across the local waters Monday. South to southwest winds at 10 to 15kts are forecast to back southeast into Saturday afternoon and veer southwest Sunday at 12-18kts. Winds are forecast to veer west-northwest Monday at 8-12kts. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft Saturday, 2-4ft Sunday, and 3-5ft Monday. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast mid morning and into the afternoon Saturday. A higher chance for scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms exists Sunday into Monday ahead of a cold front. Isolated to scattered storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail, and cloud to water lightning strikes.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Fri...No wind or low RH concerns. Above normal temps in the mid 90s, low 90s coast with min RH values around 40 percent.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 91 73 92 / 0 20 10 30 MCO 69 94 74 96 / 0 20 10 40 MLB 71 90 74 92 / 10 20 20 40 VRB 70 92 73 94 / 10 20 10 40 LEE 69 92 75 93 / 0 20 10 20 SFB 69 94 73 95 / 0 20 10 40 ORL 71 94 75 95 / 0 20 10 40 FPR 69 92 72 94 / 20 20 10 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SIPF1 | 4 mi | 60 min | 8.9 | 79°F | 80°F | 29.77 | ||
| 41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) | 22 mi | 49 min | 78°F | 1 ft | ||||
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 41 mi | 49 min | 79°F | 1 ft | ||||
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 42 mi | 57 min | SE 5.1G | 80°F | 84°F | 29.82 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KVRB VERO BEACH RGNL,FL | 11 sm | 21 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 73°F | 79% | 29.84 | |
| KFPR TREASURE COAST INTL,FL | 22 sm | 21 min | ESE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 73°F | 74% | 29.83 | |
| KMLB MELBOURNE INTL,FL | 22 sm | 21 min | ESE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.83 |
Sebastian
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT 0.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM EDT -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT 0.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT 0.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM EDT -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT 0.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sebastian, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| -0 |
| 11 am |
| -0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| -0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| -0 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Vero Beach (ocean)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT 3.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT 0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT 3.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT 0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Vero Beach (ocean), Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.9 |
| 3 am |
| 3.1 |
| 4 am |
| 3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Melbourne, FL,
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