Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:27 PM   Moonset 1:20 AM

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GMZ232 Expires:202405152245;;244011 Fzus54 Kcrp 150931 Cwfcrp
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service corpus christi tx 431 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
middle texas coastal waters from baffin bay to matagorda ship channel out to 60 nautical miles. Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz231-232-152245- baffin bay and upper laguna madre-corpus christi and nueces bays- 431 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
.small craft should exercise caution today - .
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots early this afternoon, then becoming east 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late. Bay and inland waters choppy. Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 431 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
generally weak to moderate onshore flow today and tonight, except for predominately moderate onshore this afternoon and evening over the southern bays and southern nearshore coastal waters. Generally moderate onshore flow Thursday, as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. The approach of the upper system and increasing moisture will contribute to isolated showers and Thunderstorms Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

FXUS64 KCRP 150942 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 442 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Deterministic runs predict an upper subtropical jet streak to enter the CWA today. The NAM/GFS predict PWAT values to increase above normal this afternoon near the Rio Grande. The combination of the foregoing may result in isolated convection over the Rio Grande Plains by late this afternoon/early evening. SPC places the Rio Grande Plains in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Day 1 (The NAM predicts CAPE values to increase to nearly 3000 J/kg at LRD by 21z today). An upper level disturbance is predicted to approach the Four Corners Region today then enter TX Thursday.
In addition, moisture will continue to increase tonight/Thursday, with PWAT values well above normal Thursday afternoon. The combination of upper forcing and copious moisture will contribute to scattered convection Thursday, mainly over the Coastal Plains, with the greatest likelihood over the Victoria Crossroads.
Concur with SPC which places the approximately northeast 2/3 of the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (The NAM predicts CAPE values to peak 3000-4000 J/kg over much of the CWA, along with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg). With respect to Fire Weather, anicipate that breezy onshore flow over the CWA along with low relative humidity values, will result in an Elevated risk of fire weather conditions this afternoon over portions of the Rio Grande Plains/Brush County. Based in part on the application of the expected winds/sea state to the local expert system, will maintain a Moderate risk of rip currents today through Thursday. Patchy to areas of radiation fog early this morning, consistent with select thermodynamic profiles per the LAPS (very thin layer of moist air near surface, followed by dry air aloft). Anticipate mainly stratus clouds tonight/early Thursday owing to wind.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages: - Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday.
- Elevated heat concerns possible early next week for the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

A low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorm will continue Thursday night and through the day Friday. This activity will be facilitated by mid-level shortwave progression and ample low-level moisture with PWATs around 1.5-2.0 inches. Additionally, strong instability will be present with SBCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg across portions of South Texas. As we progress into the day Friday, the chance for precipitation will be further influenced by an upper- level trough ushering a surface low pressure system and associated cold front into Central Texas and possibly into South Texas. This low would allow for enhanced low level convergence along the cold front, providing lift for convective development. In light of the considerable instability and favorable low-level moisture, SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) in place for severe thunderstorms on Friday for the Victoria Crossroads and a small portion of the northeast Coastal Bend.

Looking ahead past this rainy spell to the weekend and early next week, mid and upper-level ridging will set in from the west, ushering in a period of dry weather with a steady warming trend.
Daytime highs are forecasted to climb from the upper 80s to upper 90s on Friday, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s through the remainder of the long term period. These temperatures coupled with high humidity levels will allow for heat indices to soar close to 110 degrees over portions of South Texas, specifically the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Similar to last night with limited moisture in the region and high pressure. The only difference is that the high is now more to the east, and an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in northern Mexico. The low will keep the winds breezy in LRD and COT. The main issue for CRP, ALI, and VCT will be low CIGs and fog. The winds in the east are dropping off as the 3 eastern sites are now variable, and with the skies clear, fog is expected to develop sometime. The guidance would suggest between 08z and 12z, but based on last night, it could be around 06z and then nothing.
So low confidence in the timing, but have MVFR VSBYs for 08z to 12 or 13z. Otherwise, Wednesday, and Wednesday evening look to be clear, although MVFR CIGs will begin to encroach on the region around 06z/THU.

MARINE
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow today and tonight, except for predominately moderate onshore this afternoon and evening over the southern bays and southern nearshore coastal waters. Generally moderate onshore flow Thursday, as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. The approach of the upper system and increasing moisture will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 90 78 92 77 / 0 10 30 10 Victoria 91 72 88 75 / 0 10 60 30 Laredo 99 79 101 75 / 0 20 0 10 Alice 94 76 95 75 / 0 10 30 10 Rockport 87 78 88 78 / 0 10 30 10 Cotulla 97 77 97 75 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 91 77 93 76 / 0 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 87 79 89 80 / 0 10 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Aransas Channel
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Wed -- 02:19 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:12 AM CDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:55 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Channel, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:14 AM CDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:19 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:21 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:25 AM CDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:26 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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