Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Aransas, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 12:24 AM CDT (05:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1149 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..South wind around 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South wind around 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots shifting southeast after midnight. Bays smooth.
Friday..South wind 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy.
Friday night..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy.
Saturday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting southwest in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots shifting southwest after midnight. Bays smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ200 1149 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters.. Strong onshore flow and elevated seas will continue overnight through early Wednesday as a strong upper level disturbance moves across the southwestern united states. The upper system will increase the chance for showers and Thunderstorms by Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to move through the waters before daybreak Thursday with a moderate offshore flow developing in its wake. Moderate onshore winds return on Friday as the next storm system moves into the southern rockies. The onshore flow will become moderate to strong on Saturday and Sunday as low pressure develops over deep south texas. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Aransas, TX
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location: 27.84, -97.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 290259 aab
afdcrp
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service corpus christi tx
959 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Discussion
Lowered rain chances before 06z but did not make much in changes
between 06z and 12z. Meso models have been pretty consistent today
in keeping things out of our area through 06z/07z, before moving
into our area overnight (mainly north to start then farther south
toward morning). Meso models also consistent on keeping the bulk
of the severe weather to the north of south texas overnight. Laps
data along with crp 00z sounding showing a strong cap which will
remain for most of the overnight period. Appears the cap weakens
late but then there is the question on whether the moisture
advection/theta-e advection will be there for deeper convection.

Thus, for now left the 2nd period of convective forecast as-is for
now, as there will be at least scattered showers over the coastal
areas Wednesday morning (and better chances for showers/thunder
northeast). Otherwise, minor changes to the first period.

Marine
Winds are sufficient to keep the SCA going for all marine
interests tonight. Not much needed to change tonight.

Previous discussion /issued 707 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion...

see aviation discussion for 00z tafs.

Aviation...

main issue is the timing of the convection (if any) and wind
shift. Preliminary 00z crp sounding (actual up to 500mb) shows a
pretty good cap over the area, which is expected to remain
overnight but try to break toward sunrise over the eastern areas.

Think most of the convection south of kvct will be showery, but
there is still a chance for thunder toward sunrise kali and kcrp.

Ergo, will maintain the prob30 for these two areas, between 10z
and 16z. At klrd, could have a fine line of showers sometime
between 07z and 11z, then clearing after that. The kvct terminal
has the best chance for tsra, and did go tempo for them between
12z and 16z. Next shift can decide if either thunder can be
removed at kali and kcrp (and just go with tempo shra), of if
the cap looks more breakable and thus maintain thunder.

Otherwise, MVFR conditions will develop at least over the eastern
terminals (if not already occurring). Winds will stay up a good
part of the evening and for a few hours after midnight as the
potent storm system impacts texas. Expect clearing from west to
east on Wednesday morning, with west to northwest winds behind
the boundary.

Previous discussion... /issued 408 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...

as a deep upper level low approaches the region, a dryline is
expected to push into the western CWA tonight. Convection may
begin to affect the NW CWA after 10 pm, but not expecting any
significant precip until after midnight. As the dryline moves
east, moisture is progged to deepen across the eastern CWA with
pwat's of 1.5-1.6 inches. The atmosphere is progged to be unstable
with ample shear, however CIN values/capping inversion will also
be high overnight. Kept the higher pops across the northern cwa
where the cap is weaker and upper dynamics are better. There
appears to be a brief window after 09z (closer to 12z) through
15z where the atmosphere will be most conducive for convection to
develop. The CAPE is mod to strong and cin/cap decreases across
the eastern CWA coincident with the dryline bdry and an embedded
short wave tracking around the SE periphery of the low. The better
chc of strong to isol svr wx is expected during this time frame
across the NE cwa. Generally, the CWA is expected be at the tail
end of the storm system. As the short wave tracks ne, the
convection will also exit to the east and northeast by mid to late
morning. Models prog drier mid/upper levels as
dryslotting/subsidence overtakes the area through Wed afternoon.

The dryline is progged to stall along the coast Wed afternoon then
retreat west slightly as the sea breeze pushes inland. Wed night,
the upper low will move east across tx and push a weak cold front
through the cwa. Residual low level moisture may be sufficient
for isol (sct over the waters) convection across the east ahead
of and along the frontal bdry Wed night. The cold front will bring
slightly cooler temps to the area Wed night.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)...

drier conditions develop behind the exiting front Thursday. Low
afternoon relative humidity values will be in place Thursday/Friday
however winds should remain below fire weather criteria. Moisture
gradually returns on Saturday ahead of the next approaching upper
disturbance. The cap continues to remain strong on Saturday. As a
result, have removed Saturday 20 pops for now due to the cap,
although a few isolated streamer showers may be possible in the
morning hours under the cap. It is not until Saturday night, more so
into Sunday, that pops will increase as the next disturbance digs
down through texas. With slightly more energy and a slightly farther
dip south, chances for rain remain rather high, with likely pops
draped across the northern zones from cotulla to victoria. Model
soundings show profiles developing steep lapse rates aloft which may
contribute to strong activity. Things may change between now and the
weekend but this is the next shot of rain with the possibility of
strong weather. Temperatures will remain rather warm thru the
period, with temperatures even reaching into the low to mid 90s
across the brush country Thursday thru Saturday.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Corpus christi 72 88 62 82 62 / 20 40 20 10 0
victoria 71 85 59 79 56 / 30 70 20 10 0
laredo 68 93 58 85 62 / 30 10 10 0 0
alice 71 90 60 84 59 / 20 30 20 10 0
rockport 72 81 65 80 67 / 20 50 20 10 0
cotulla 65 91 57 84 59 / 50 10 10 0 0
kingsville 72 91 61 84 59 / 20 30 20 10 0
navy corpus 73 82 66 80 67 / 20 40 20 10 0

Crp watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt Wednesday for the following
zones: bays and waterways from baffin bay to port aransas...

bays and waterways from port aransas to port o'connor...

coastal waters from baffin bay to port aransas out 20 nm...

coastal waters from port aransas to matagorda ship channel
out 20 nm... Waters from baffin bay to port aransas from 20
to 60 nm... Waters from port aransas to matagorda ship
channel from 20 to 60 nm.

Gw/86... Short term


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 0 mi55 min SE 13 G 20 74°F 72°F1005.1 hPa
PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX 1 mi85 min SE 26 G 30 74°F 74°F1004.5 hPa (+0.0)71°F
MIST2 1 mi70 min SSE 22 74°F 1006 hPa73°F
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 13 mi55 min S 17 G 25 75°F 78°F1004.8 hPa
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 17 mi55 min SE 20 G 25 75°F 77°F1005.1 hPa
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 17 mi55 min 76°F 77°F1004 hPa
CPNT2 19 mi55 min SE 18 G 22 75°F 77°F
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 20 mi55 min SE 24 G 29 74°F 76°F1005.1 hPa
MAXT2 - Mission-Aransas Reserve, TX 20 mi85 min 14 76°F 1006 hPa (+1.0)73°F
NUET2 22 mi55 min SSE 19 G 25 78°F1004.6 hPa
IRDT2 28 mi55 min SE 21 G 29 75°F 78°F1005.2 hPa
AWRT2 30 mi55 min SE 18 G 25 75°F 78°F1005.2 hPa
BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX 42 mi55 min ESE 20 G 27 75°F 77°F1004.9 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 44 mi55 min ESE 19 G 26 76°F 78°F1005.3 hPa
KMZG 47 mi50 min SE 12 G 22 75°F 72°F

Wind History for Port Aransas, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Aransas, Mustang Beach Airport, TX2 mi30 minSSE 14 G 225.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F95%1005.1 hPa
Mc Campbell, TX9 mi50 minSSE 17 G 247.00 miOvercast76°F72°F90%1005.1 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX16 mi89 minSSE 22 G 337.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy76°F73°F91%1004.1 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi International Airport, TX23 mi34 minSSE 25 G 319.00 miOvercast and Windy76°F72°F88%1004.5 hPa

Wind History from RAS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S9S10
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1 day agoS7SE6SE5E3SE4SE11SE6SE6SE5E5E6E7E7E9E9E12SE11
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2 days agoS7SE8S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Aransas, Texas
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Port Aransas
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:52 AM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:59 AM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:45 PM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.811.11.11.110.90.80.70.70.70.80.80.910.90.80.70.50.40.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:33 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:21 AM CDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:39 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:05 PM CDT     -0.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:07 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:43 PM CDT     0.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:15 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:15 PM CDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.10.10.50.80.90.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-00-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.