Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 6:40 AM   Moonset 9:15 PM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 957 Am Edt Thu May 9 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Sunday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 957 Am Edt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis - Winds generally remain 15 knots or less and out of the south to southwest today and Friday. A frontal boundary will sink slowly south across the waters late Friday and Friday night with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will build over the waters during the weekend with winds veering generally to the northwest on Saturday, and the northeast on Sunday.

FXUS62 KTBW 091151 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 751 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Another clear and warm morning will lead to a sunny and hot afternoon. Highs once again in the interior will reach the mid to upper 90's. Hi res models do show the line of storms that will be pushing through North Florida this afternoon and evening could have just enough energy to make it through Levy county before dissipating. This could result in a few stronger storms with winds being the main hazards.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 U/L pattern begins with a rex block over the inter-mountain west and west central Canada. The rex block will break down today and Friday with a split flow pattern developing along the west coast of the U.S., with a cut-off U/L low retrograding over the desert southwest, and the main northern stream flow out of Canada diving southeast into a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Southern stream flow will undercut the west coast cut-off low and stretch west/east across the southern tier of the U.S.
merging with the northern stream over the southeast U.S. A series of U/L disturbances will ride through the northern stream, with one pushing across the southeast U.S. on Tuesday which will bring a significant chance of rain across west central and southwest Florida. This disturbance will rotate away from the region on Wednesday...with the subtropical ridge south of the area gradually building back north across the Florida peninsula late in the week. A significant large scale pattern change will take place across the CONUS as the split flow pattern entering the west coast of the U.S. breaks down.

High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the forecast area today with continued very warm temperatures and dry conditions.
The surface ridge axis will be sinking slowly south of the region which will allow for increasing onshore boundary layer flow. This will push the sea breeze boundary inland during the afternoon hours which will hold max temps along the coastal counties to the upper 80s/lower 90s...with the interior climbing into the mid 90s.
A frontal boundary will sink slowly south along the Georgia/Florida border on Friday which will tighten the gradient creating a bit stronger onshore flow. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chance for rain across the nature coast. High temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday. The frontal boundary will continue to sink south Friday night across the remainder of the forecast area with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area.

Weak high pressure build over the Florida peninsula over the weekend in the wake of the front over the weekend. The most noticeable change will be the drier air advecting across the region with dew points away from the coast dropping in the mid to upper 50s in many areas. Temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler...but will it will still be quite warm over the interior and southwest Florida.

L/L moisture will be on the increase early next week as the U/L disturbance previously mentioned approaches the southeast U.S. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area on Monday. The associated frontal boundary will move over north and central Florida on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms likely...and a chance of thunderstorms south. The front will stall across the central Florida peninsula and will gradually dissipate. However, residual moisture combined with daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze boundary will create a chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions expected through the daytime hours. However, MVFR and IFR CIGS will be possible overnight as models are showing a lower cloud deck.Winds will shift from the south to the SW and West throughout the day thanks to the seabreeze boundary.

MARINE
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 High pressure will hold over the waters today and Friday.
Slight increase in the gradient on Friday may allow for brief SCEC conditions Friday evening as an onshore may develop, but not enough to headline at this time. Winds will veer north and northeast over the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. An approaching frontal boundary early next week will cause winds to shift to the south and southwest, with potential for headline conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night as the frontal boundary sinks south across the northern waters. The gradient will weaken late Wednesday and Wednesday night as weak high pressure builds back over the area as the frontal boundary gradually dissipates.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 No red flag conditions are anticipated. However, dew points over the interior will drop into the 30 to 35 percent range this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid 90s. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 mph. Similar conditions on Friday afternoon with minimum relative humidity values around 35 percent over portions of the interior with highs again in the mid 90s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 77 89 77 / 0 0 30 30 FMY 92 75 91 76 / 0 0 0 20 GIF 95 75 94 74 / 0 0 10 30 SRQ 87 76 89 75 / 0 0 10 30 BKV 92 71 91 69 / 10 0 40 30 SPG 88 78 87 78 / 0 0 20 40

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Port Tampa, Old Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Thu -- 02:37 AM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:04 PM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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