Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Progress Village, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:51 AM EDT (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 410 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Today..South winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous Thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming south around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 410 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Synopsis.. Surface ridge axis remain in a position over the southern half of the florida peninsula into the eastern gulf of mexico through Monday, providing the region with a generally light southwest to south wind. Winds and seas will generally be quite low, however mariners should expect scattered Thunderstorms, especially during the overnight and morning hours.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Progress Village CDP, FL
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location: 27.88, -82.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 230658
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
258 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows a weak flow pattern but an
unsettled one aloft over the florida peninsula this morning. The
subtropical surface ridge extends up to around the h7 700mb level
before transition to generalized troughing rising higher in
altitude. This troughing is on the western periphery of the
circulation around a well-defined tutt low moving slowly northward
off the southeast CONUS coast. As this tutt begins to move away from
the region later today, the extent of the unsettled troughing aloft
will begin to weaken, but likely not before diurnal heating has
already interacted with this energy to our convective
pattern evolution for the day. Outside of our region, the main belt
of northern stream westerlies migratory synoptic impulses remain
displaced well to our north, and will for the rest of the forecast
period.

At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis remains aligned over the
south-central florida peninsula, providing a continued light 1000-
700mb SW flow. This low level SW flow pattern is climatologically
favorable for late night morning convective activity forming along
the land-breeze over the coastal waters and migrating onshore. We
have seen this the past several mornings, and today will be no
different... And potentially even more active from the tampa bay area
northward along the nature coast due to a bit of enhanced low level
focus convergence compared to previous days... Superimposed
underneath some weak synoptic support lift aloft. Several studies
conducted by this office have found that this light SW flow pattern
is also climatologically favorable for the development of isolated
brief and generally weaker waterspouts near the coast within a few
hours either side of sunrise, as cells migrate nearshore and
encounter old residual boundaries to enhance updraft vorticity
stretching. Important to understand that it does not require strong
convection to produce these morning waterspout events. Even a weak
updraft encountering a favorable thermodynamic an vorticity profile
can spin up a brief visible funnel. Absolutely not saying that these
morning waterspouts are not potentially dangerous to mariners,
however the waterspouts we see later in the day when we are under
east southeast flow tend to be stronger and longer lasting as they
are associated with more robust boundary collision updrafts.

Short term (today through Sunday) today... The pattern
today will be very similar to what we have seen the past
several days... Driven mostly by the the light southwest flow
pattern off the gulf of mexico. Convective activity is
already going over parts of the nature coast as of 3am, and
the pattern and nwp ensemble guidance both suggest this
activity will increase and spread south down the coast in
the remaining pre-dawn hours. The storms certainly have the
potential to be a bit more active coverage during the
morning hours today due to more enhance low level focus in
the lower levels, and a weakness aloft that will help
promote rising motion. Unlikely many spots will be a washout
today, but anyone with outdoor activities work planned
should be prepared to dodge a few showers storms, especially
along and north of the i-4 corridor.

The later into the afternoon we progress, the more likely we will
see the best storm chances pushing inland. Based on the position of
the weakness aloft and the better potential for a migratory sea-
breeze along the suncoast, am expecting convection to become rather
quiet along the coast to the south of tampa bay after 18-20z.

Further north, expect coverage to decrease, but will have to keep at
least a chance pop in the forecast into the early evening hours.

Temperatures today will range from the middle 80s north under
greater and rain coverage, to around 90 south of tampa
bay.

Monday... The upper weakness will be lifting away from region during
Monday allowing height to rise overhead. We will still be under a
weak SW flow regime, so that patterns fingerprint of early morning
storms migrating in from the gulf and slowly inland with time after
sunrise will still control the forecast. However, with less upper
level support, the overall coverage, duration, and should
be less than today. With greater potential for insolation,
and greater heights, would anticipate high temperatures a
bit warmer than today. Most locations should reach 90, with
some southern areas down toward punta gorda fort myers into
the lower middle 90s.

Long term (Monday night - Saturday)
Monday night through Wednesday, the sub-tropical surface
ridge will hold across the southern half of the forecast
area, with weak westerly to southwesterly low level flow
holding in place across much of the area. This will continue
the pattern of scattered convection developing over the
eastern gulf of mexico before sunrise each morning, shifting
east into the florida peninsula through the morning and
early afternoon hours. Thunderstorms will become more
numerous each afternoon under strong surface heating and
will shift into the interior and dissipate through the
evening hours.

During the second half of the week, a mid level trough will move
into the eastern seaboard, allowing a weak surface front to stall
across the southeastern states, nudging the surface ridge to the
southeast. Although the low level flow will remain weak, generally
southwest flow will persist across the area between this stalled
front and the sub-tropical ridge. Storms will continue to develop
across the gulf waters during the early morning hours and migrate
into west central and southwest florida through the morning and
afternoon each day through the period.

Aviation (23 06z through 24 06z)
Expecting generalVFR conditions for this TAF period,
outside of occasional passing thunderstorms. Similar to
previous mornings, expect scattered storms to begin
migrating onshore during the pre- dawn hours and continue
after sunrise. A period of MVFR or ifr vis is possible with
any of these storms, with continues returning toVFR with
storm passage. The majority of the convective activity is
expected to migrate inland from the TAF sites by the later
afternoon and especially evening hours.

Marine
Surface ridge axis remain in a position over the southern half of
the florida peninsula into the eastern gulf of mexico through
Monday, providing the region with a generally light southwest to
south wind. Winds and seas will generally be quite low, however
mariners should expect scattered thunderstorms, especially during
the overnight and morning hours.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather concerns expected as a moist summer
pattern remain in place through the next several days. Winds will
generally be light outside of thunderstorms, with relative humidity
well above critical values. Scattered storms can be expected near
the coast each morning... With activity spreading inland with time
through the day.

Fog potential... No significant or widespread fog or visibility
restrictions are expected through the next several days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 78 90 79 60 30 40 20
fmy 90 76 93 77 30 20 10 20
gif 89 75 93 76 50 20 40 20
srq 86 77 88 79 60 30 40 10
bkv 87 74 91 75 60 30 50 20
spg 87 78 91 80 60 30 40 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis short term aviation marine fire wx... Mroczka
long term decision support... Fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 3 mi52 min 89°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 4 mi64 min E 2.9 G 4.1
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 4 mi58 min SE 1.9 G 6
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 6 mi52 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 78°F 86°F1016.3 hPa (-1.4)
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi52 min SSE 8.9 G 12 80°F 87°F1016.4 hPa (-1.3)
CLBF1 16 mi118 min SE 4.1 G 6 81°F 1016.1 hPa
MTBF1 17 mi52 min SSE 11 G 14 78°F 1016.2 hPa (-1.6)
PMAF1 18 mi52 min 76°F 87°F1015.5 hPa (-1.5)
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi52 min SE 7 G 15 79°F 87°F1016.3 hPa (-1.1)
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 26 mi118 min SE 6 G 7 80°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL2 mi57 minSE 810.00 miOvercast81°F78°F94%1016.6 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL4 mi2.9 hrsSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds78°F78°F100%1017.9 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL8 mi59 minSE 510.00 miThunderstorm80°F75°F85%1016.4 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL10 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F89%1016.9 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi59 minS 1310.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity81°F77°F88%1015.4 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi59 minSSE 47.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain80°F75°F87%1016.2 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL17 mi77 minSE 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1017.6 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL24 mi57 minS 3 mi73°F73°F100%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmSE3S3S4CalmS8S9S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S3S3S7S4CalmE4SE5SE7SE5
1 day agoE3N5E3CalmS5S6S4S5S8W6SW7SW9
G15
E3CalmE4CalmS4SE5CalmE3CalmSE4S4E4
2 days agoCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalmSW5S8CalmE5E10CalmSE3CalmNE6SE6NE5NE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Pendola Point, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Pendola Point
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Sun -- 04:32 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:32 AM EDT     1.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:24 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:57 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.91.31.61.71.71.71.61.61.722.42.83.13.33.332.41.710.3-0.2-0.3-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Sun -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:31 PM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.21.41.20.80.3-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.30.20.7110.70.3-0.3-0.8-1.2-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.3-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.