Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Progress Village, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:02PM Thursday April 26, 2018 7:25 AM EDT (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 324 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Today..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 324 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis.. The interaction between high pressure to our west and the slow approach of weak cold front along the northern gulf coast will shift our winds from northwesterly to west and southwesterly today. This weak front will reach the northern waters tonight and then pass through the remainder of the eastern gulf of mexico during Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Progress Village CDP, FL
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location: 27.88, -82.45     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 260819
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
415 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Update aviation section...

07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing a rather complex mid and
upper level synoptic pattern in place early this morning over the
conus. Several significant lobes of shortwave energy are evident on
wv imagery. The shortwave that will evolve closest to our region
today is currently located over the ARKLATEX region, with a well-
defined subsidence drying notation on satellite imagery spreading
over the lower ms valley. This energy will quickly evolve eastward
over the deep south through the day... Passing mainly to our
north... With minimal impact to our sensible weather later this
afternoon into this evening. A second shortwave that will impact our
weather in the near-future is dropping southward through the upper
plains. This energy is shown by nwp to quickly follow the lead
shortwave described above... Reaching the northern gulf coast during
Friday... And helping to carve out a fairly significant synoptic
trough by Friday night as it passes over the florida peninsula and
off into the atlantic early Saturday. WV imagery continues to show
our region under a vast area of mid upper level dry air... As sampled
by the 0.67 pw value off the 26 00z ktbw sounding profile. While
some moistening is expected today in the upper levels with the near
passing of the first shortwave, this moistening will not be
significant and with the best synoptic lift moistening staying to
our north with this shortwave, the dry air looks to win out keeping
any shower activity mainly north of our counties later today. A
slightly better chance for a few showers along a cold front during
Friday associated with the approach of the second shortwave, but not
significant, and prob not even enough to water most lawns.

At the surface... Pressure gradient along the eastern periphery of
high pressure covering the gulf of mexico is providing a
northwesterly flow early this morning across the fl peninsula. As a
weak cold front moves along the northern gulf coast today, reaching
the western fl peninsula, our large scale winds should shift to a
more westerly or southwesterly direction.

Short term (today through Friday)
Today... As mentioned in the synopsis. Will be watching the
evolution of a strong shortwave trough through the day as it
moves eastward from the lower ms valley over the deep
south. Nwp guidance is in very good agreement regarding the
evolution of the system and all show the main associated pv
anomaly passing to our north late this afternoon and early
evening. All significant pressure advection with this pv
anomaly also passes to our north keeping synoptic forcing
minimal down into north- central florida. Given the extent
of dry air aloft over the forecast area currently, this
near-miss of the favorable lift moistening is going to fall
short of providing the ingredients for shower chances... Even
over our far northern areas. Given the path of these
features, measurable precip looks to have a difficult time
getting much south of the i-10 corridor into this evening.

With this in mind, will keep the forecast dry for all zones
through 00z this evening. This scenario is agreed upon by
the deterministic operational runs of the major nwp members
but also by ensemble guidance packages such as the GEFS and

So... We have established that it is unlikely we will see any rain in
the forecast area today. What will the weather be like. The answer
is seasonable. The pattern will provide a light northwest flow this
morning... Transiting to a west SW flow this afternoon through a
combination of the slow approach of a cold front to our northwest
and diurnal sea-breeze development. The onshore synoptic flow off
the still relatively cooler shelf waters will provide a west to east
temperature gradient across the region, with upper 70s to near 80
near the coast... And lower to middle 80s along and inland from the i-
75 corridor. Will see some passing high clouds at times, along with
a few lower cumulus forming due to boundary layer mixing... But can
prob call it mostly sunny for much of the day.

Tonight Friday... By late evening, the initial shortwave will be
exiting to our northeast, but followed closely by a second piece of
shortwave energy dropping down into the lower ms valley. This
shortwave is a bit more broad and taking a more southerly track
which will act to begin pushing the surface front, initially over the
fl panhandle north-central gulf, southward into the eastern gulf of
mexico north-central florida. The renewed motion is shown the nwp to
result in a narrow band of sfc-900mb fgen after midnight from the
nature coast zones out into the gulf. This thermal circulation along
with surface focus and a slow influx of moisture aloft ahead of the
approaching shortwave PV anomaly looks to be enough this time to
force a band of showers along the front. Does not look to be
anything heavy, as the lift remains shallow, but enough to introduce
rain chances to the forecast. The rainfall probs for measurable
precip actually are fairly high off the GEFS href for the nature
coast i-4 corridor through midday Friday, but fall to near zero for
probabilities of greater then 0.25". So, should be looking at a
narrow band of showers along the front... But anything that does
occur looks to be light. Front and a few scattered showers or
sprinkles settle south of the i-4 corridor by late afternoon early
evening Friday. High temperatures generally upper 70s north of the i-
4 corridor, and lower to middle 80s further south where much of the
day will be pre-frontal and shower free.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
By the start of the weekend, a large mid level trough will
be digging into the great lakes region, while a shortwave
rotates around the base of the trough and into the florida
peninsula. At the surface, this shortwave will give a
secondary push to the cold front across florida, bringing a
drier, but not significantly cooler airmass into the
forecast area.

Ridging aloft will shift into the great plains on Sunday while a
broad surface ridge builds over the eastern us. This pattern will
result in continued dry conditions, with temperatures warming up
slightly Sunday and Monday. The surface ridge will shift into the
western atlantic Monday night and Tuesday, setting up easterly flow
across florida. This easterly flow will moderate temperatures
slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances remaining minimal.

Aviation (26 08z through 27 06z)
A few areas of MVFR ceilings have developed near the coast from ktpa
southward. Based on satellite trends, appears as though the
potential for periodic MVFR restrictions will continue for the next
several hours and have added this to the tafs through 12z.

Otherwise, light NW W winds continue through the early morning hours
under mostly clear to clear skies. Some increase in high clouds is
likely through the day. Winds should shift to a more westerly
direction by midday and into the afternoon, and have sided with a
hedge to a wsw direction for most terminals at 9-13 knots from
midday onward. Winds decrease quickly with sunset this evening.

The interaction between high pressure to our west and the slow
approach of weak cold front along the northern gulf coast will shift
our winds from northwesterly to west and southwesterly today. This
weak front will reach the northern waters tonight and then pass
through the remainder of the eastern gulf of mexico during Friday.

Winds shift to the northwest in the wake of this front, but are
currently expected to remain below advisory levels. High pressure
then builds into the central gulf of mexico this weekend, keeping
our winds generally light out of the north and northwest.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather concerns are in the forecast through
Friday. Seasonable conditions through this evening will be followed
by the passage of a weak cold front during Friday. A narrow band of
showers is expected with this front, but rainfall totals should be
light. High pressure and drier conditions build over the region
behind this front for the upcoming weekend.

Fog potential... Patchy ground fog is expected early this morning
across portions of the nature coast. This fog will lift shortly
after sunrise.

Additional patchy fog is likely to form after midnight tonight away
from the coast, however no significant area of widespread or dense
fog are expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 79 68 79 64 0 10 40 10
fmy 83 67 85 66 0 10 20 10
gif 84 63 83 60 0 10 40 10
srq 75 69 76 65 0 10 30 10
bkv 80 62 79 58 0 20 40 0
spg 80 68 81 66 0 10 40 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis short term aviation marine fire wx... Mroczka
long term decision support... Fleming

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 3 mi37 min 79°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 4 mi55 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 6 mi37 min W 5.1 G 7 69°F 76°F1012.8 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi43 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 77°F1012.1 hPa
CLBF1 16 mi91 min NNW 1.9 G 5.1 71°F 1011.9 hPa
MTBF1 17 mi37 min WNW 8 G 9.9 70°F 1012.7 hPa59°F
PMAF1 18 mi37 min 70°F 75°F1012.8 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi43 min WSW 7 G 8.9 70°F 75°F1012.8 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 26 mi91 min WNW 8 G 9.9 69°F 1013.1 hPa
42098 32 mi25 min 74°F2 ft

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL2 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair66°F60°F83%1012.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL4 mi29 minNW 410.00 miFair67°F59°F77%1013.2 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL8 mi32 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F60°F76%1012.9 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL10 mi30 minN 07.00 miFair54°F53°F100%1013.2 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi32 minWNW 310.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1012.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi32 minS 310.00 miFair63°F57°F84%1012.8 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL17 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1013.9 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL24 mi35 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds55°F55°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3NW5W5W8W10
1 day agoNW4W6NW7W4NW7
2 days agoS4S8S6S7SW10SW14

Tide / Current Tables for Pendola Point, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Pendola Point
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Thu -- 12:15 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:33 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Thu -- 01:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:22 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.