Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Progress Village, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:03PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 7:01 AM EST (12:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 349 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 30 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming north around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 349 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis..High pressure exits to the east as a cold front approaches from the west with a tightening gradient that will increase winds...becoming up to 20 knots today with some gusts to gale force later tonight and Thursday. The front traverses the waters tonight and Thursday with showers and some strong Thunderstorms along with a wind shift as robust to strong winds continue, high pressure settles into the western gulf coast Thursday night then moves east...with veering and diminishing winds through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Progress Village CDP, FL
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location: 27.88, -82.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 231157
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
657 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Aviation
Vfr will continue at all terminals through 04z tonight with
broken CIGS in the 040-050 range expected. After 04z MVFR
cigs vsbys will develop as an area of shra tsra approach
from the gulf along and ahead of a cold front, with local
ifr conditions possible between 08-12z. Southeast winds
around 10 knots early this morning will increase to 14 to
16 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after 15z. Winds will
become south after 03z with speeds increasing into the 15 to
18 knots with gusts up to 30 knots with higher gusts in the
vicinity of tsra.

Prev discussion issued 332 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Increasing rain chances tonight into Thursday...

A few strong to severe storms possible late tonight into
early Thursday...

short term (today - Thursday night)...

deep layered ridging along the eastern seaboard early this
morning slides east through Thu as a long wave
trough... With an accompanying complex frontal system... From
the upper midwest to the southern high plains shifts
eastward - from the great lakes to the gulf of mexico by
late thu. The southern portion for the frontal system
reaches east gulf waters in the early hours of thu... Tracks
across most of fl during the day... Then clears south fl late
thu night.

An initially dry and stable atmosphere on east to southeast
lower level flow will slowly moisten as the flow becomes
more southerly and gusty during today - in response to the
pressure gradient tightening between the departing ridging
and the advancing upper trough front. Today will be warm and
while some cloudiness will be around no rainfall is
expected. Tonight southerly flow gradually becomes more
southwesterly... Providing increasing moisture along with
more instability as the front nears. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms begin to reach coastal locations from
around tampa bay northward in the evening. Showers spread
inland and cover the entire area along with a slight chance
of storms during the night. These continue to move east in
the morning as the front nears tampa bay around daybreak and
the fort myers area in the afternoon. Showers and storms
begin to clear from the north late afternoon then exit the
southern counties Thu night. A few of the thunderstorms
could become strong to severe with the main threat damaging
winds but an isolated tornado or two may be possible. The
current expected timing will favor late tonight into early
thu morning.

Mid term long term (Friday-Tuesday)... Broad mid upper level
troughing will remain across the eastern two-thirds of the
conus with a series of shortwaves moving through it during
the period. For Friday and Saturday surface high pressure
will build in from the north and settle over the southeast
states bringing cool and dry weather with temperatures
several degrees below normal. Saturday night into Monday
shortwave energy will be moving across the gulf of mexico
and into florida, but the timing, location, and strength of
the wave varies highly between the models which leads to
rather low confidence in the forecast during this timeframe.

Latest indications are that the best chance of rain showers
will be across south florida, but a slight shift in
location or strength of the shortwave could bring a much
higher chance of rain showers to the entire region. For now
have gone with a blend of the guidance and indicated slight
chance to chance pops from northwest to southeast for
Saturday night through Monday. By Tuesday the shortwave
should be off to the east of the area with weak surface high
pressure building in bringing a return to fair dry weather
before the next cold front approaches from the northwest
during midweek.

Marine...

high pressure pulling away to the east as a cold front moves
in from the west will tighten the gradient with increasing
winds... Becoming up to 20 knots with some gusts to gale
force later tonight and thu. The front tracks through thu
with showers and some strong thunderstorms along with a wind
shift to west then northwest as robust to strong winds
continue, high pressure settles in Thu night then moves
east... With veering and diminishing winds through the end of
the week.

Fire weather...

robust 20 foot and transport winds today will create high
dispersions. Then a front moves east over the area late
tonight and Thu with showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms. The front exits Thu night. High pressure
builds into the western gulf Thu night and moves along the
gulf coast... With a cool stable dry air mass through
sat... But no low rh concerns are expected. Some rain chances
return sun

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 78 65 66 46 0 90 80 10
fmy 81 68 71 51 0 50 90 20
gif 79 65 69 44 0 80 90 10
srq 79 65 67 49 0 80 90 10
bkv 80 63 66 40 0 90 80 0
spg 76 64 66 48 0 90 80 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for
coastal manatee-coastal sarasota.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60
nm-waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20
to 60 nm-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river
fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Aviation... 57 mcmichael
short term marine fire weather... 09 rude
mid term long term... 69 close


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 3 mi43 min 63°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 4 mi43 min ENE 5.1 G 7
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 6 mi43 min E 6 G 8.9 61°F 61°F1024 hPa
GCTF1 8 mi43 min 62°F 55°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi49 min E 7 G 8.9 61°F 62°F1023.7 hPa
CLBF1 16 mi67 min E 5.1 G 12 65°F 1022.7 hPa
MTBF1 17 mi43 min E 11 G 12 60°F 1023.7 hPa55°F
PMAF1 18 mi43 min 61°F1023.6 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi43 min E 8.9 G 14 61°F1023.5 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 26 mi67 min ESE 9.9 G 12 62°F 1024.4 hPa
42098 32 mi31 min 63°F3 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 40 mi127 min E 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL2 mi66 minESE 610.00 miOvercast63°F55°F77%1024 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL4 mi65 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F53°F75%1024 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL8 mi68 minESE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F53°F70%1024.1 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL10 mi66 minN 010.00 miLight Drizzle59°F53°F82%1024.4 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi68 minESE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F55°F78%1023.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi68 minESE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F54°F75%1023.7 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL17 mi66 minE 410.00 miOvercast63°F53°F73%1024.7 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL24 mi71 minESE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F51°F82%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE8E7E9E9E14
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E9E6E5E8E6E5E5E8E8SE8E5E5
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2 days agoW11
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NW6NW5N5N5N7N6N4NE6NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Pendola Point, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:20 AM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:58 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:52 PM EST     1.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.110.60-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.700.81.31.41.20.80.2-0.3-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.