Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm River-Clair Mel, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 5:15 AM EDT (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 345 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming south west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 345 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis.. Benign marine forecast through Thursday as high pressure dominates the region. Light east to southeast flow this morning will turn west and southwest near the coast this afternoon with sea-breeze development...and then expand offshore with time through the afternoon/early evening hours. A more southerly flow develops by Thursday, with flow again turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon. Winds increase to near cautionary levels Thursday night and Friday in advance of a cold front. This front will likely bring some shower and/or Thunderstorms activity to the region on Friday. Lighter winds and drier conditions return for the weekend as high pressure again takes control of the eastern gulf of mexico.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm River-Clair Mel, FL
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location: 27.91, -82.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 290831
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
431 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
08z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows an amplified mid/upper
level pattern over the CONUS this morning. Broad synoptic ridging
over the pacific coast digs downstream into a sharp and potent
trough/closed low feature ejecting out of the southwest states
across the central and southern plains. Lots of severe weather
ongoing with this feature in oklahoma and texas early this morning,
however... Further downstream the flow again ridges northward over
the eastern gulf of mexico/florida and southeast atlantic seaboard.

This ridge is protecting our area, and will help keep our forecast
generally benign, warm, and dry through Thursday.

High pressure will remain in control of our region at the surface
for one more day as well. This ridge is centered off the fl east
coast, but ridges back to the west across the state.

Skies are generally clear this morning, although a few patches of
shallow ground fog can be seen in the difference fields, and
confirmed by some observations. At this point... Most of these fog
patches are along and north of the i-4 corridor, but will not be
surprised to see a few areas develop toward down further south.

Either way, the fog will not last long once the Sun comes
up.

Short term (today through Thursday)
Today... Warm and dry weather continue with stacked ridging over the
florida peninsula. Strong terrestrial heating will boost
temperatures by mid/late afternoon into the middle and upper 80s
away from the coast, and force another well-defined sea breeze to
form and evolve slowly inland. This sea-breeze will keep things a
bit cooler at the beaches during the second half of the afternoon.

Plenty of atmospheric suppression under the upper ridge should again
prevent any deep convection along the inland moving sea-breeze... As
the CU fields stays suppressed and shallow.

Upper ridge will hold control over the region into Thursday, but
begin to loose influence late in the day, and especially during the
evening hours. The surface ridge looks to weaken and push eastward,
giving up its influence on the region as well. The movement of the
surface ridge will allow winds to shift to a more southerly
direction, especially over the eastern gulf. Strong terrestrial
heating should turn the flow more southwest at the coast, and with
some synoptic push behind it, the sea-breeze will move inland faster
on Thursday than during previous days. Overall suppression will not
be as great on Thursday, but the quick progression inland of the sea-
breeze will not be all that favorable for any shower (especially
given the time of year). If any shower are to form, it is more
likely to be along the i-95 corridor... Up toward jacksonville.

Therefore, keeping pops at 10% or less for one more day. Synoptic
trough beginning to approach from the west during Thursday will
certainly keep all inclement weather well to our west, however, it
is likely that we will see some increase in high level cirrus ahead
of this system invading our skies to filter the Sun at times. The
cirrus may be enough to keep temps a couple of degrees cooler than
today, but we are still looking at widespread 80s.

Mid/long term
On Friday, a mid/upper level trough will dig into the SE u.S.

Allowing a surface trough to move through our area bring some rain
chances to the area. Mid/upper level support will be moving area
from our area so will likely end up with a broken line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms moving through. By Saturday morning,
upper ridging quickly builds back over the region for the rest of
the weekend and into Monday keeping us dry with above normal temps
continuing.

As we get into the early part of next week, greater forecast
uncertainty exists. Global models have been persistent on the
development of a significant shortwave trough / cut-off low feature
across the western u.S. Later this weekend and take the feature
eastward into the southern u.S. At the start of next week. While
both global models show this feature, there are major discrepancies
between them on timing, location and strength of this feature. All
of which will have impacts on our forecast. For now, have low end
rain chances on Monday and Tuesday until models have a better handle
on things. Forecast certainty this far out is low to say the least.

Aviation (29/08z through 30/06z) VFR conditions prevail
for the TAF period at most locations. A brief period of
MVFR visibility is possible toward dawn at mainly klal/kpgd,
but not significant restrictions are expected and any
lowered vis will end quickly after sunrise. Light and
variable morning flow turns sw/w during the afternoon hours
and increases to around 10 knots as the sea-breeze evolves
slowly inland from the coast toward the i-75 corridor. Winds
decrease with sunset this evening and become variable again
before the end of the TAF period.

Marine
Benign marine forecast through Thursday as high pressure dominates
the region. Light east to southeast flow this morning will turn west
and southwest near the coast this afternoon with sea-breeze
development... And then expand offshore with time through the
afternoon/early evening hours. A more southerly flow develops by
Thursday, with flow again turning onshore near the coast in the
afternoon. Winds increase to near cautionary levels Thursday night
and Friday in advance of a cold front. This front will likely bring
some shower and/or thunderstorms activity to the region on Friday.

Lighter winds and drier conditions return for the weekend as high
pressure again takes control of the eastern gulf of mexico.

Fire weather
High pressure keeps the weather dry and warm through Thursday.

The next potential for any rainfall will not arrive until Friday.

Relative humidity is expected to approach or drop just under 35%
away from the coast each of the next two afternoons. Today appears
to have the best potential for widespread critical level relative
humidity. However, extended durations of critical rh, are generally
not expected, and only light forecast winds should keep red flag
conditions from being met. Based on relative humidity and erc
values, the locations that will likely come closest to red flag
conditions this afternoon are inland levy and inland lee counties.

Increasing low level moisture prevents critical levels of relative
humidity Friday.

Fog potential... Isolated patches of shallow ground fog can be
expected away from the coast early this morning, and again early
Thursday morning. However, widespread and/or dense fog is not
anticipated.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 86 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 87 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
gif 88 65 87 65 / 0 0 0 10
srq 78 67 78 66 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 87 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
spg 84 68 81 68 / 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis/short term/aviation/marine/fire wx... Mroczka
mid term/long term/decision support... Mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 1 mi45 min 75°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 2 mi51 min N 4.1 G 5.1
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 2 mi45 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi45 min N 5.1 G 6 71°F 74°F1015.5 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 14 mi45 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 69°F 73°F1015 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi81 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1015.2 hPa
MTBF1 19 mi45 min E 5.1 G 5.1 71°F 1015.8 hPa64°F
PMAF1 20 mi45 min 65°F 73°F1014.7 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi45 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 72°F1015.9 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 25 mi81 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 1016.1 hPa
42098 34 mi45 min 71°F1 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 38 mi141 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 64°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL0 mi20 minNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F62°F83%1015.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL5 mi17 minN 010.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1015.9 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL6 mi22 minN 410.00 miFair66°F62°F87%1015.8 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL9 mi20 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F94%1016.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi22 minNNE 410.00 miFair69°F63°F81%1015.5 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL14 mi22 minNE 410.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1015.1 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL16 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F94%1016.6 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL23 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F94%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS3SW4SW5SW5W5SW5W7W6W7NW5NW4NW3NW3CalmCalmE4NE3NE3Calm
1 day agoE4E3E4E3E4SE4S3SW3W5SW5CalmNE6NE6W5NW3NW3NW5N4NE5E4SE4SE4E3E3
2 days agoE5E4CalmE4SE8SE7S6S4E8NE3NE3E4SW4W5W6NW5NW4CalmCalmSE7SE4SE5E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Island, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Davis Island
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Wed -- 03:48 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:48 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.21.72.12.221.71.30.90.60.50.611.62.12.42.42.21.71.20.70.2-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Wed -- 02:10 AM EDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:03 PM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:42 PM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.11.41.20.80.2-0.3-0.8-1.1-1-0.7-0.20.511.31.10.6-0-0.6-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.3-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.