Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm River-Clair Mel, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:45PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:37 AM EDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:50AMMoonset 4:28PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 349 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Today..East winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming east around 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 349 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis..Strong high pressure near bermuda ridges west-southwest over the area. Winds will remain east-southeast at 10-15 knots early Saturday, then becoming variable at 5-10 knots by Saturday evening. Winds will be remain variable at 5-10 knots for the start of next week through mid week as another area of high pressure sets up in the eastern half of the gulf of mexico. No other marine impacts expected.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm River-Clair Mel, FL
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location: 27.91, -82.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 250734
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
334 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Short term (today - Sunday)
An amplified upper level pattern continues over the conus. A closed
upper low sits over eastern oklahoma, while upper level ridging
extends from the northeast gulf of mexico, over florida and
into the western atlantic. Another closed low sits over the
bahamas and cuba. This pattern shifts east through the
weekend. On the surface, strong high pressure near bermuda
ridges southwest over florida. This will keep an east-
southeast wind flow and rain-free conditions over florida
through the weekend. Another area of high pressure develops
in the northeast gulf of mexico by late Saturday evening and
will keep benign weather conditions over the area.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with
daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows
in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Long term (Monday through next Friday)
Have seem little change in the ensemble guidance during the past day
with respect to the synoptic pattern evolution over the southeast
conus through the majority of the long term period. For at least the
Monday through Thursday period the pattern remains rather benign in
terms of sensible weather.

Monday will find the florida peninsula residing under stacked
mid/upper level ridging... While surface ridging extends down the
atlantic seaboard into the eastern gulf of mexico. Available
moisture region-wide is shallow (10kft or less) presenting
significant challenge to sea-breeze convection potential. Shortwave
energy will be moving along the northern gulf coast during
Monday... However global guidance ensembles are in good agreement
that the best synoptic support/qvector convergence ahead of this
trough will pass to our north. Perhaps the closer proximity to this
support to help a shower or two across far northern areas (northern
sumter/inland levy county) during the evening hour, but even this is
a long shot.

With a fast and progressive pattern... This shortwave will pass off
to our east Monday night and the area will once again return to
stacked ridging for Tuesday through Thursday. Other than a very
isolated sea-breeze shower (again a long shot)... The forecast
remains dry and rather warm. Inland locations are likely to rise
well into the 80s much of next week... While the beaches make a run
at 80 degrees before dropping back into the mid/upper 70s with the
onset of the afternoon sea-breeze.

The next significant pattern amplification will emerge from the
central plains later Thursday and then along the northern gulf coast
Thursday night. Forecast confidence begins to decline at this
point... As ensemble spread rapidly increases with respect to the
evolution of this system. The GFS and its ensembles are become more
aggressive with the potential for rainfall on Friday (especially
northern half of the region) due to stronger shortwave energy
remaining over the gulf. The ECMWF pivots this system rapidly
northeastward... Resulting in little to no height falls over the
peninsula Friday. This ECMWF solution has much more support from the
00z canadian solution... And therefore will be leaning the forecast
toward these less aggressive and drier solutions. Will introduce
some low pops Friday/Friday night... However keeping rain chances
conservative with the majority of solutions still keeping best
moisture and lift to our north.

Aviation
Vfr at all terminals next 24 hours. Generally easterly winds will
give way to a sea breeze turning winds onshore near the coast
Saturday afternoon, most likely at ktpa, kpie, and ksrq. No other
aviation impacts expected.

Marine
Strong high pressure near bermuda ridges west-southwest over the
area. Winds will remain east-southeast at 10-15 knots early
Saturday, then becoming variable at 5-10 knots by Saturday evening.

Winds will be remain variable at 5-10 knots for the start of next
week through mid week as another area of high pressure sets up in
the eastern half of the gulf of mexico. No other marine impacts
expected.

Fire weather
Relative humidity values will remain above any critical fire weather
threshold through the period as high pressure advects abundant
moisture over the area. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph as
well and no other fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
weekend and into next week.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 81 65 81 64 / 10 10 10 0
fmy 83 63 83 62 / 30 30 10 10
gif 83 62 83 62 / 10 10 20 10
srq 80 62 79 63 / 10 10 10 0
bkv 82 59 83 58 / 10 0 10 10
spg 80 66 80 65 / 10 10 10 0

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather... 74/wynn
long term/decision support... 14/mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 1 mi50 min 70°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 2 mi50 min E 2.9 G 5.1
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 2 mi74 min ENE 4.1 G 7
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi50 min E 6 G 8 64°F 70°F1021.8 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 14 mi56 min E 6 G 9.9 66°F 71°F1021.3 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi104 min E 5.1 G 9.9 67°F 1021.1 hPa
MTBF1 19 mi50 min ESE 11 G 14 64°F 1021.8 hPa59°F
PMAF1 20 mi50 min 62°F 69°F1020.8 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 25 mi104 min ESE 8.9 G 11 64°F 1021.7 hPa
42098 34 mi38 min 69°F2 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 38 mi104 min E 4.1 G 6 60°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL0 mi63 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F88%1022 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL5 mi40 minESE 810.00 miFair63°F61°F93%1022 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL6 mi45 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1022.1 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL9 mi43 minN 07.00 miFair55°F53°F94%1022.3 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi45 minESE 910.00 miFair65°F59°F81%1021.7 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL14 mi45 minESE 1010.00 miFair65°F60°F84%1021.4 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL16 mi43 minE 310.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1023 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL23 mi53 minE 410.00 miClear59°F57°F94%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10E12
G16
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G18
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G19
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E9
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E9E10E6E6E5E4E5E4E4E6E5
1 day agoNE5NE9E9E12E11E9E12
G17
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G23
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E9E10E9E6E6NE6NE7NE6NE7
2 days agoCalmW5NW6W7NW8W6W7W6W8NW8NW7NW4W4W6W3N5NE4
G8
CalmN4CalmN3N5NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Island, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Davis Island
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Sat -- 12:28 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:03 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:09 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.22.11.71.30.70.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.30.81.31.71.81.81.61.31.10.90.911.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:17 PM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.3-0.1-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.20.40.91.21.10.80.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.10.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.