Monday, May22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Palm River-Clair Mel, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:19AMMoonset 3:58PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 904 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest around 10 knots this afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters becoming choppy.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots becoming south around 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to around 15 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light to moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds around 15 knots becoming southwest around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..West winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 904 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure ridge axis will slowly move south early this week to the florida straits...with winds veering to the southwest. Winds speeds stay at 15 knots or less through Tuesday... But begin to increase to around 20 knots during midweek as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Higher winds and seas can be expected in the vicinity of Thunderstorms ahead of this front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm River-Clair Mel, FL
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location: 27.91, -82.45     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 221401
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
1001 am edt Mon may 22 2017

Update (rest of today through Wednesday night)
14z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows an amplified
upper level pattern in place over the conus... Anchored by a
large closed upper low spinning over the upper midwest.

Several impulses are rounding is larger circulation. One
weak shortwave passed through our region last night and was
the forcing mechanism for the showers in the pre-dawn hours.

This energy has no passed by... And the shower activity has
dissipated. Another stronger impulse can be seen dropping
southward into the high plains. This shortwave is destined
to have a much greater impact on our weather during the mid-
week period as it amplifies southward and moves across the
northern gulf of mexico. We will talk more about this
further down this discussion.

At the surface... Atlantic high pressure ridges westward
across the florida peninsula... But is starting to shift
southward toward the florida straits. Low level synoptic
winds which have been out of the east/se the past several
days are shifting to the south as this ridge axis
moves... And eventually will veer to the southwest by

Rest of today... Earlier clouds and showers are dissipating
allowing diurnal heating to get going. By early this
afternoon this heating will lead to sea-breeze formation.

Without the easterly flow to hold the sea-breeze
back... Expect this boundary to move steadily inland with
time... Making it well past the i-75 corridor by late
afternoon. Due to this change from previous days... Higher
rain chances for diurnal storms will be well inland as well.

Close to the coast... Storms are unlikely later today. The
main sea-breeze collision looks to take place across the
central portion of the peninsula
(polk/highlands/desoto/hardee/sumter counties). Storms are
likely to continue in eastern polk/highlands counties a few
hours past sunset before finally quieting down for the

Tuesday is going to be the transition day between sea-breeze
dominated weather today... And widespread synoptic/frontal
rain Wednesday into Thursday. Synoptic winds will be out of
the southwest by Tuesday... Keeping any sea-breeze
unorganized and pushed well inland and out of our area
before much potential for convection occurs. Off to our
northwest... The pre-mentioned trough will be amplifying
across the central part of the country... With upper flow
becoming cyclonic in nature all the way to the southeast
coast. With little in the way of sea-breeze storms... Most of
the area will be dry (in terms of rain) Tuesday... But the
flow off the gulf will keep this quite humid... Under
considerable high level cirrus to dim the Sun (especially
along and north of the i-4 corridor). There is some
potential for some synoptic showers to approach far northern
areas (levy/citrus) counties late in the day... Although
better rain chances will arrive Tuesday night for these
northern zones.

A significant trough amplification for late may takes place
into the northern gulf later Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Increasing large scale ascent ahead of this
trough... Supplemented by diffluent flow aloft is quite
favorable to support widespread heavy rainfall across the
florida peninsula. Associated surface front will be slow to
advance across the region, and this sets up the potential
for several rounds of rainfall to move across the region. In
addition, increasing wind fields/deep layer shear (35-45kts)
ahead of the trough is plenty to support more organized
thunderstorm/updraft potential. The storm prediction center
has outlooked our entire region in a slight risk of severe
weather (including isolated tornadoes) Wednesday/Wednesday
night... And feel this is appropriate given the nwp ensemble
solutions for this event. Although during the day Wednesday
is likely to be wet... With some stronger storms... The most
organized severe weather potential looks to be Wednesday
evening through early Thursday morning.

Aviation (22/14z through 23/12z)
Vfr conditions will prevail this morning. Sea-breeze will
form in the next few hours and quickly move inland past all
terminals this afternoon... Shifting winds to the southwest.

Best potential for storms later this afternoon will be well
inland. Storms may form in the vicinity of klal, but then
likely will move further east by the evening hours. General
vfr conditions continue overnight into Tuesday morning with
a light south to southeast flow.

High pressure ridge axis will slowly move south early this
week to the florida straits... With winds veering to the
southwest. Wind speeds stay at 15 knots or less through
Tuesday... But begins to increase to around 20 knots during
midweek in advance of a cold front. Higher winds and seas
can be expected in the vicinity of numerous thunderstorms
expected ahead of this front.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 89 75 87 77 / 30 0 10 40
fmy 91 73 90 75 / 20 10 10 10
gif 92 72 90 74 / 60 40 20 20
srq 88 75 86 77 / 30 10 10 30
bkv 89 71 87 71 / 20 0 20 50
spg 89 76 86 76 / 30 10 10 40

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update/aviation/marine... Mroczka

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 1 mi57 min 85°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 2 mi57 min S 6 G 8.9
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 2 mi57 min S 6 G 7
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi57 min SSE 6 G 8 81°F 83°F1017.9 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 14 mi57 min SSE 5.1 G 7 84°F 83°F1017.5 hPa
CLBF1 18 mi99 min SW 6 G 8.9 83°F 1017.2 hPa
MTBF1 19 mi57 min W 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 1018.2 hPa69°F
PMAF1 20 mi57 min 81°F 85°F1017 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi57 min SSW 9.9 G 11 80°F 83°F1017.9 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 25 mi99 min WSW 8 G 8.9 80°F 1018.8 hPa
42098 34 mi63 min 81°F2 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 38 mi99 min WNW 7 G 8.9 82°F 1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Berth 223, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL0 mi58 minS 610.00 miFair88°F71°F59%1017.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL5 mi95 minESE 610.00 miA Few Clouds85°F72°F67%1018.6 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL6 mi40 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F69°F55%1017.6 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL9 mi38 minSSW 610.00 miFair90°F68°F49%1017.9 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi40 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F70°F61%1017.3 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL14 mi40 minS 710.00 miFair82°F70°F67%1017.1 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL16 mi58 minWSW 5 G 1510.00 miFair90°F68°F49%1018.6 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL23 mi43 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F66°F52%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW5W4W6NW6W6W6CalmCalmE3E3E5E8E6SE7S13
1 day agoS3SE6SE6SW10W7SW17
2 days agoSE10

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Island, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Davis Island
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Mon -- 04:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:22 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.