Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tampa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:47PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:05 AM EDT (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 7:35PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 414 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming south around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots then becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 414 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis.. Benign marine forecast the next several days as high pressure dominates the region. Light east to southeast flow overnight into the morning hours will turn west and southwest near the coast each afternoon with sea-breeze development...and then expand offshore with time through the afternoon/early evening hours. No rainfall is expected through at least Thursday. Confidence then increases that the approach of a cold front Thursday night into Friday will bring an increase in southerly winds, possibly to cautionary or advisory levels, and a potential round of Thunderstorms over the eastern gulf of mexico.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tampa, FL
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location: 27.93, -82.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 280711 cca
afdtbw
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
309 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows an amplified by
progressive mid/upper level pattern over north america early this
morning. Main features include a short-wave trough evolving through
the tn/oh valleys... With a weak trough extension down to northern
florida... Followed upstream by synoptic ridging through the plains
states and mid/lower ms valley... And finally followed upstream by a
sharp trough digging through the inter-mountain west/sw states. The
influence of the shortwave trough entering the eastern states is
staying just north of our region early this morning and will be
passing to our east this morning. This evolution will allow the
ridging to our west to build over the region during today. The
secondary trough out west will evolve into the central/southern
plains later today/tonight with an expected severe weather outbreak
across portions of that region. This trough and its associated
inclement weather will not be a concern for our region anytime soon.

At the surface... High pressure off the eastern seaboard continues to
ridge back to the southwest over the florida peninsula and eastern
gulf of mexico. The synoptic gradient within this ridge position is
providing a light easterly to variable flow this morning.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
As weak troughing pulls away from the region this morning... Heights
will again rise in response to mid/upper level ridging evolving
eastward form the central gulf of mexico over our region. The
synoptic pattern by late today will again feature stacked ridging in
place... Keeping our weather dry and warm through the middle of the
week.

Although significant troughing will be evolving into the central
plains during the next 24-36 hours... The slow evolution of this
system will allow the strong upper ridging to remain in control of
the fl peninsula through Wednesday. This ridging should exert enough
large scale suppression, keep the moisture layer shallow enough, and
maintain a hostile enough thermodynamic environment above 6-8kft to
prevent even isolated deep convection along the sea-breeze the next
couple of days. Therefore... Despite expected very well-defined sea-
breeze boundaries and strong bl focus along the boundaries evolving
inland the next couple afternoons... Pops will remain under 10%... And
the resulting CU fields should remain shallow and highly suppressed.

High temperatures the next couple of days will be well into the 80s
inland... And generally lower 80s at the coast. Shelf waters
temperatures are still generally in the lower to middle 70s... So
expect temperatures at the beaches to drop from the lower 80s to the
mid/upper 70s after the onset of the sea-breeze each afternoon. Low
temperatures tonight will be seasonable, with mid/upper 50s north to
the i-4 corridor... And upper 50s to lower 60s further south.

Normally warmer locations with e-se nocturnal flow, such as southern
pinellas county, and the capes of charlotte harbor will likely not
drop below the middle 60s.

Mid/long term
Mid/upper level ridging will be in place at the start of the
extended forecast period with dry weather and above normal
temperatures expected on Thursday. Temps will top out in the 80s
across the area with upper 80s expected across the interior zones.

Afternoon seabreeze will keep temps cooler along and near the coast.

On Friday, a mid/upper level trough will dig into the SE u.S.

Allowing a surface trough to move through our area bring some
increased rain chances. Models are in better agreement now compared
to a few days ago so have increased pops a bit compared to previous
forecasts. Upper ridging quickly builds back over the region for the
rest of the weekend and into Monday keeping us dry with above normal
temps continuing.

As we get into the early part of next week, greater forecast
uncertainty exists. Global models have been persistent on the
development of a significant shortwave trough / cut-off low feature
across the western u.S. Later this weekend and take the feature
eastward into the southern u.S. At the start of next week. While
both global models show this feature, there are major discrepancies
between them on timing, location and strength of this feature. All
of which will have impacts on our forecast. For now, have low end
rain chances on Monday and Tuesday until models have a better handle
on things.

Aviation (28/07z through 29/06z) once again the main
forecast parameter for this TAF package is a wind forecast
related to timing of the sea-breeze. A brief period of MVFR
vis is possible at klal/kpgd toward dawn this morning, but
no significant restrictions are expected. Light e-se flow
this morning will shift sw-w for coastal terminals during
the early to mid afternoon as the sea-breeze develops and
evolves slowly inland. Kpie will likely go briefly northeast
around midday with initial bay breeze before the gulf sea-
breeze arrives and turns winds westerly. Similar conditions
tonight with patchy areas of MVFR visibility, mainly for
klal/kpgd in the few hours surrounding sunrise.

Marine
Benign marine forecast the next several days as high pressure
dominates the region. Light east to southeast flow overnight into
the morning hours will turn west and southwest near the coast each
afternoon with sea-breeze development... And then expand offshore
with time through the afternoon/early evening hours. No rainfall is
expected through at least Thursday. Confidence then
increases that the approach of a cold front Thursday night
into Friday will bring an increase in southerly winds,
possibly to cautionary or advisory levels, and a potential
round of thunderstorms over the eastern gulf of mexico.

Fire weather
High pressure keeps the weather dry and warm through the next
several days. The next potential for any rainfall will not arrive
until at least Friday. Relative humidity is expected to briefly
approach or drop just under 35% away from the coast each of the next
two afternoons, however, extended durations of critical rh, and only
light forecast winds will keep red flag conditions from being met.

Fog potential... Patchy fog is expected away from the coast early
this morning, and again early Wednesday morning. However, widespread
and/or dense fog is not anticipated.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 81 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 84 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
gif 85 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
srq 77 64 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 83 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
spg 80 67 81 68 / 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis/short term/aviation/marine/fire wx... Mroczka
mid term/long term/decision support... Mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 1 mi47 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 1 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 1.9
MCYF1 2 mi47 min 73°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 7 mi47 min E 2.9 G 2.9 65°F 73°F1017.4 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 15 mi47 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 72°F1016.8 hPa
CLBF1 19 mi71 min E 1.9 G 1.9 66°F 1016.3 hPa
MTBF1 20 mi47 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 64°F 1017.4 hPa60°F
PMAF1 21 mi47 min 62°F 72°F1016.5 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 21 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 71°F1017.4 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 24 mi131 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1016.7 hPa
42098 35 mi35 min 70°F1 ft
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 37 mi131 min E 1 G 1.9 62°F 1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Seabulk, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL1 mi70 minENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F62°F94%1017.3 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL5 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair68°F61°F78%1017.3 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL6 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair60°F59°F98%1017.2 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL8 mi70 minN 07.00 miFair57°F55°F94%1017.6 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL13 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1017.1 hPa
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport, FL15 mi72 minSSE 410.00 miFair67°F61°F81%1016.4 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL16 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair59°F59°F100%1017.9 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL23 mi66 minN 010.00 miClear59°F57°F94%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from TPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4SE4S3SW3W5SW5CalmNE6NE6W5NW3NW3NW5N4NE5E4SE4SE4E3E3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE4SE8SE7S6S4E8NE3NE3E4SW4W5W6NW5NW4CalmCalmSE7SE4SE5E4E4E4E3E4
2 days agoE6E4SE6SE7SE5S3SW3S6SW4S3S3E6E3E9E8E6E7SE6E8E6E6E5E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Hillsborough Bay
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Tue -- 02:58 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:12 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.82.22.32.21.91.510.60.40.40.61.11.72.12.32.21.91.510.50.1-00.1

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Tue -- 01:21 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:33 PM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.31.20.80.3-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.50.10.81.21.20.90.4-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.