Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aransas Pass, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:38PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 11:07 PM CST (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 908 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Wednesday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Thursday..North wind up to 5 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays smooth.
Thursday night..Southeast wind up to 5 knots in the evening becoming light and variable. Bays smooth.
Friday..North wind around 5 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays smooth.
Friday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Saturday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Saturday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. A slight chance of light rain.
Sunday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. A chance of light rain.
Sunday night..East wind around 10 knots. Bays slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
GMZ200 908 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
Strong offshore flow and large seas will continue to gradually diminish tonight through Wednesday, however advisory conditions will continue through Wednesday across the coastal waters offshore flow will continue to weaken through Thursday, with a light northerly flow developing by late Thursday. Onshore flow will resume on Friday, as the cold dome of high pressure finally moves east. Onshore flow will increase to near moderate levels over the weekend, with an increase in moisture. A frontal boundary will approach the waters on Sunday as a coastal trough develops. This, along with increased instability and moisture, will result in the chance for showers by Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aransas Pass, TX
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location: 27.94, -97.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 132343 aaa
afdcrp
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service corpus christi tx
543 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018

Discussion
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

Aviation
Vfr. Mainly wind forecast. N-nw-ly wind to continue to diminish
gradually this evening, with general 5-10 kts through the end of
the TAF period. Clear skies currently for lrd-ali, with skies
expected to continue to clear from crp-vct over the next couple of
hours.

Previous discussion issued 311 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018
short term (tonight through Wednesday)...

weakening winds and clearing skies will lead to excellent
radiational cooling tonight. This will allow temps to drop into the
mid 20s to low 30s across a majority of S tx. Mid to upper 30s are
expected along the coast. The combination of the low temps and
elevated winds across the coastal counties will lead to wind chill
values around 20 to mid 20s for inland portions of the coastal bend.

Therefore am issuing a wind chill advisory from midnight tonight
through 8 am Wed extending from kleberg county to victoria county.

Will also continue the freeze warning for tonight. Wed will be sunny
but chilly with highs in the 50s.

Marine...

sustained winds have decreased to below gale, therefore will allow
the gale warning to expire at 2 pm this afternoon. Advisory
conditions will continue for the bays through the remainder of the
afternoon, then drop to scec levels. Advisory conditions are
expected to continue overnight into Wed for the coastal waters.

Winds across the nearshore waters may decrease to below advisory
criteria earlier than offshore, however seas will likely remain at
advisory levels, thus will leave both near and offshore
advisories ending Wed afternoon. Winds and seas will continue to
relax through late Wed afternoon.

Winds and seas will continue to subside through Friday as the
surface ridge axis moves slowly across the coastal waters, then
east. Onshore flow and seas will then slowly increase over the
weekend as the trough develops right along the coast, resulting in a
more moderate easterly flow and better chances for rain.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...

one more rather cold night with some brief freezing temperatures
interior sections, especially low-lying areas. Moisture and
temperatures will increase through most of the weekend, before
another boundary (a much weaker one) moves into south texas late
Sunday, helped by a developing coastal trough. Based on the upper
level flow, am not sure how far south this front will get, but for
now the models are bringing it through the area in a large part due
to a developing coastal trough, extending from NE south texas to
south of brownsville. For now will buy this solution, which (along
with some jet dynamics and better moisture and weak instability)
will provide for an increase in rain chances, especially by Sunday
and Sunday night. The coastal trough will provide an additional
chance for rain on Monday (along with cooler temperatures given that
the front does come down as models suggest - we shall see). For
Tuesday, ECMWF and GFS are in a much better agreement on the timing
and location of the next upper level trough, which looks to be
impacting the area late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Although this is a day 8 forecast, if this pans out (given the
anticipated available moisture) it will provide a good chance for
rain and possible thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could be scattered
near the coast and in the gulfmex Tuesday night with good surface
and upper forcing along with surface instability. However, with this
being that far out in time am going with 30 to 50 pops for Tuesday
night for now, and just have a slight chance for thunder.

For temperatures in the Wednesday night - Tuesday time frame, went
on the cooler side of guidance Wednesday night and Thursday, then
went more with a modified superblend for temperatures, especially on
Sunday where frontal boundary issues may play havoc with high
temperatures depending how far south the boundary makes it during
the day on Sunday (and how much rain will be present keeping
temperatures on the cooler side). Generally tried to blend in with
other offices Sunday through Tuesday, given the uncertainties in
time with these weather features.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 31 55 34 63 41 10 0 0 0 0
victoria 28 53 30 59 40 10 0 0 0 0
laredo 30 59 37 65 42 0 0 0 0 0
alice 28 55 33 65 40 10 0 0 0 0
rockport 35 54 41 61 44 10 0 0 0 0
cotulla 27 58 33 66 39 0 0 0 0 0
kingsville 29 56 34 64 40 10 0 0 0 0
navy corpus 39 55 42 63 48 10 0 0 0 0

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... Wind chill advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am cst Wednesday
for the following zones: coastal aransas... Coastal
calhoun... Coastal kleberg... Coastal nueces... Coastal
refugio... Coastal san patricio... Inland calhoun... Inland
kleberg... Inland nueces... Inland refugio... Inland san
patricio... Victoria.

Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Wednesday for
the following zones: bee... Duval... Goliad... Inland
calhoun... Inland kleberg... Inland nueces... Inland refugio...

inland san patricio... Jim wells... La salle... Live oak...

mcmullen... Victoria... Webb.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 2 pm cst Wednesday for the following
zones: coastal waters from baffin bay to port aransas out
20 nm... Coastal waters from port aransas to matagorda ship
channel out 20 nm... Waters from baffin bay to port aransas
from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from port aransas to matagorda
ship channel from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for the
following zones: bays and waterways from baffin bay to port
aransas... Bays and waterways from port aransas to port
o'connor.

Cb 85... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 6 mi37 min W 4.1 G 6 42°F 1034.4 hPa
ANPT2 7 mi37 min NNW 15 G 17 45°F 1033.6 hPa
RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX 7 mi37 min NNE 6 G 9.9 43°F 56°F1034.7 hPa
PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX 8 mi67 min NNW 12 G 15 44°F 61°F1034.4 hPa (+1.6)32°F
TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX 19 mi37 min 44°F 60°F1034.3 hPa
PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX 23 mi37 min N 16 G 22 46°F 52°F1034.9 hPa
NUET2 23 mi37 min N 12 G 14
AWRT2 25 mi37 min NNW 5.1 G 6 37°F 52°F1034.4 hPa
MQTT2 - 8775870 - Malaquite Beach (Corpus Christi), TX 26 mi37 min NNW 14 G 18 45°F 61°F1034.5 hPa
IRDT2 34 mi43 min 46°F 51°F1035.3 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 37 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 52°F1034.7 hPa
BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX 48 mi37 min NNW 12 G 13 43°F 53°F1035 hPa
KMZG 49 mi32 min ENE 28 G 36 48°F 34°F

Wind History for Rockport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mc Campbell, TX8 mi72 minN 610.00 miFair39°F33°F80%1034.5 hPa
Port Aransas, Mustang Beach Airport, TX9 mi72 minNNW 1210.00 miFair44°F32°F66%1034.9 hPa
Rockport Aransas County Airport, TX10 mi74 minN 1010.00 miFair42°F33°F71%1034.5 hPa
Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX21 mi71 minN 20 G 2510.00 miFair and Breezy47°F28°F50%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from TFP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas
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Rockport
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:46 AM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:37 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:14 PM CST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:40 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Aransas Pass, Texas Current
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Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:06 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:31 AM CST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:37 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:36 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:38 PM CST     1.38 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:40 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.70.40-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.2-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.71.11.31.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.