Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:12 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:41 PM

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PMZ019 Central Gulf Of California- 850 Pm Pdt Sat May 4 2024
Overnight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 13 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Sun night - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Mon night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Tue - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Wed - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Wed night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Thu - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 12 seconds. Thu night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 11 seconds.

FXUS65 KTWC 050831 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 AM MST Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny and remaining warm today with windy conditions as a dry weather system impacts the region. Some areas of blowing dust are possible. Cooler Monday, then temperatures warm up the remainder of the week into next weekend with continued afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION
Mostly clear skies across southeast Arizona this morning with some cirroform cloudiness as latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows an upper low over northern California moving into the Great Basin. While the core of this system will remain to the north of our area as it pushes east today through tonight, the southern end of the trough axis will move through Arizona with an associated dry surface cold front. A tighter pressure gradient today will result in windy conditions for most of southeast Arizona with southwest winds of 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph. Wind speeds will mostly remain just below advisory thresholds so will not hoist any wind headlines. However, the combination of strong gusty winds, dry conditions and high fire danger has resulted in the issuance of a Red Flag Warning. See fire weather discussion below for additional information. With the gusty winds, expect some areas of potential blowing dust today, especially in the more typically prone areas near the Willcox Playa. Meanwhile, ahead of the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal with highs around 90 in Tucson.

Monday will be the coolest day of the forecast period with highs dropping about 3 to 7 degrees compared to today. Winds will drop back down as well with typical afternoon breezes, however some stronger sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph remain near the New Mexico border.

The remainder of the week will have dry westerly flow as temperatures remain slightly above normal through Thursday, then warming to about 5 degrees above normal by next weekend. Each afternoon will feature typical afternoon breezes and gustiness with the strongest winds to the east of Tucson.

AVIATION
Valid through 06/12Z.
SKC-SCT conditions thru 06/00Z, with those SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. SCT layered clouds aft 06/00Z will be AOA 8k ft AGL. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 05/15Z, then increasing SFC wind after 05/15Z, with SWLY SFC wind at 17-25 kts and gusts up to 40 kts between 05/18Z and 06/03Z. SFC winds then gradually decrease aft 06/03Z thru the end of the valid period to 5- 15 kts with the highest winds east of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal today, with brief cooling to below normal levels Monday.
Temperatures then remain near to slightly above normal through Thursday before warming up more by next weekend. A dry weather system will move to our north today, resulting in windy southwest winds of 15-30 mph and gusts between 35-45 mph across most of southeast Arizona. Breezy winds during the afternoon and early evening hours then persist much of this week, especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.

For today, the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low relative humidity levels and a high fire danger rating will result in critical fire weather conditions from the late morning through early evening hours for most of southeast Arizona. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of southeast Arizona from 11 am to 7 pm MST this evening.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 am to 7 pm MST this evening for AZZ150>154.

Guaymas
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Sun -- 02:29 AM MST     -0.03 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:55 AM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:40 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:02 AM MST     0.58 meters High Tide
Sun -- 01:38 PM MST     0.27 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:00 PM MST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:07 PM MST     0.78 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Santa Rosalia
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Sun -- 03:39 AM MST     0.08 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:01 AM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:56 AM MST     0.52 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:37 PM MST     0.46 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:05 PM MST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM MST     0.63 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Rosalia, Baja California Sur, Mexico, Tide feet

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Tucson, AZ,