Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM   Moonset 2:43 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 242 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers this evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight. Sunday - West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 242 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Gusty sw winds this afternoon combined with persistent long period swells from the S gulf to keep seas elevated and choppy into Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag into the E gulf with scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms Sunday. Weak high pressure to build into the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding early to mid week.

FXUS62 KTBW 181739 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 139 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough continues to move through the S MS River Valley this afternoon with embedded vort maxes rotating around the base producing a series of MCSs along the N Gulf region ahead of a surface frontal boundary. Models bring this convection into the N FL Peninsula late this afternoon into tonight with some strong to severe storms possible mainly over the N Nature Coast. SW low level flow ahead of the front is also keeping the very warm and humid conditions over the area with fairly high heat index values.
Those trying to cool off at Gulf beaches should remain aware as strong rip currents with several rescues reported as long period swell energy is producing 2-3 ft breaking waves especially at SW facing beaches and the rip current statement remains in effect and may need to be extended into Sunday.

The front and upper support is expected to move through the E Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday with much needed scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through much of the day. SPC continues to indicate a marginal risk for strong to possibly severe storms ahead of and along the front.

The upper shortwave is expected to briefly stall in the W Atlantic with troughing back over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The front should be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N FL with diurnal seabreeze showers or storms mainly in the interior areas during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper ridging is expected to build back over the region from the SW Gulf around mid week while surface high pressure and a drier airmass hold through Fri with subsidence, warm temps and low rain chances.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Gusty SW winds, mainly SCT low level cumulus clouds with cirrus aloft, and VFR conditions through the afternoon/evening then winds subside tonight then deteriorating conditions Sunday with SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA.

MARINE
Gusty SW winds this afternoon combined with persistent long period swells from the S Gulf to keep seas elevated and choppy into Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag into the E Gulf with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Weak high pressure to build into the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding early to mid week.

FIRE WEATHER
A front will move over the state with showers and thunderstorms for most areas Sunday. High pressure and drier air will filter into the area early to mid week with near critical RHs in some interior zones.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 86 75 89 / 40 70 30 30 FMY 78 92 76 91 / 30 60 40 60 GIF 75 88 72 91 / 40 70 30 40 SRQ 77 88 75 90 / 30 70 30 30 BKV 71 87 68 90 / 60 70 20 30 SPG 79 86 78 88 / 40 70 30 30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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