Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Safety Harbor, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:49 AM EST (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:23AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 336 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..North winds around 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming south around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 336 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis..Strong northerly winds will persist this morning with seas up to 8 feet offshore. High pressure building just to our north later today will allow winds and seas to decrease this afternoon with sub-headline winds and seas expected by late afternoon. From Friday into the weekend, high pressure will remain just north of the waters with light east/northeast flow. Another cold front will approach the waters late Monday into Tuesday, with the potential for patchy sea fog and advisory or cautionary winds in the wake of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Safety Harbor, FL
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location: 27.97, -82.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 181121
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
621 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.

Prev discussion issued 300 am est Thu jan 18 2018
short term (today and Friday)...

a compact but powerful trough continues to spin over the
eastern carolinas. This feature has brought wintry weather
to many parts of the deep south from the florida panhandle
to georgia and the carolinas. An arctic front accompanying
the storm system has pushed through most of our region,
allowing very cold and impressively dry air to spill into
florida.

Temperatures continue to fall this morning with several
locations north of i-4 already at or below freezing. This
trend will continue through sunrise, with widespread
freezing temperatures. Given trends are generally on track
with the previous forecast, no changes were made to the
existing freeze warnings. In addition to the cold
temperatures, 8 to 10 mph northerly winds will generate wind
chills in the teens and twenties most areas.

A sunny day is expected, but despite abundant sunshine,
strong cold advection will continue as the center of an
arctic high rides over the region. This will keep
temperatures in the 40s and 50s through the day.

Tonight, guidance has come in a bit colder than previously
forecast. The center of a cold arctic high will be
positioned over the panhandle tonight with light to calm
winds for many areas north of i-4. This combined with very
dry air will favor optimal radiational cooling, and have
trended lows downward several degrees. This brings several
counties along the nature coast and interior northern
florida into hard freeze criteria, with freezing
temperatures as far south as hillsborough and polk
counties. Freeze watches have been adjusted accordingly, and
will allow the incoming shift to assess for future warning
potential. Overall, another cold night.

On Friday, as the surface high shifts to the east, easterly
flow will resume, with gradual return of atlantic moisture.

This along with rising heights over the florida peninsula
should allow for a noted warmup, with highs climbing to the
upper 50s north to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

Mid long term (Friday night through next Thursday)...

after a few days of well below normal temps, a noticeable
warmup really gets going during the weekend as high pressure
shifts into the western atlantic. Easterly flow becomes
established allowing temps and dewpoints to moderate across
the area with readings expected to return to the 70s for the
southern half of the forecast area Saturday. By Sunday,
everyone will be back in 70s for highs with noticeably
higher dewpoints as well.

The next frontal system looks to approach the area late
Monday and out ahead of it winds will become more southerly
allowing temps to push 80 in spots. Increased moisture
should support some isolated showers as well out ahead of
this system. Front looks to push through on Tuesday,
although it will lose much of its upper level support as it
does so thus limiting rain chances. Not a lot of cold air
behind this system either so no major cooldown is expected
as temps will be within a few degrees of seasonal norms. At
the very end of the forecast period, models differ greatly
on sensible weather across the area. For now, have
introduced pops into the forecast but much can change
between now and then.

Aviation (06z tafs)...

vfr conditions to continue through the period. Breezy
north northwest winds will decrease by mid to late
afternoon.

Marine...

strong north winds continue this morning with dangerous
boating conditions over all of the waters. High pressure
will slowly slip eastward through the day, allowing winds to
subside. Seas will remain elevated into the afternoon
hours. High pressure settling in north of the waters should
allow for lighter winds through the weekend. Another cold
front looks to approach the waters early next week,
resulting in a southerly wind shift. Patchy sea fog may
occur ahead of the front as moisture increases. Periods of
elevated winds and seas will likely follow the front mid
week.

Fire weather...

extremely dry air in the wake of a cold front will allow
humidities to fall well below critical levels today.

However, winds will remain light and ercs low. A gradual
moistening will occur Friday into the weekend, with rising
humidities each day. This will prevent any fire weather
conditions.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 52 37 62 46 0 0 0 0
fmy 57 40 67 51 0 0 0 0
gif 52 36 64 46 0 0 0 0
srq 53 37 62 47 0 0 0 0
bkv 51 28 61 36 0 0 0 0
spg 51 41 61 50 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 am est this morning for
coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-
coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Freeze warning until 9 am est this morning for coastal
charlotte-coastal hernando-coastal hillsborough-
coastal manatee-coastal pasco-coastal sarasota-desoto-
hardee-highlands-inland charlotte-inland hillsborough-
inland lee-inland manatee-inland sarasota-pinellas-
polk.

Wind chill advisory until 10 am est this morning for
coastal charlotte-coastal citrus-coastal hernando-
coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal levy-coastal
manatee-coastal pasco-coastal sarasota-desoto-hardee-
highlands-inland charlotte-inland citrus-inland
hernando-inland hillsborough-inland lee-inland levy-
inland manatee-inland pasco-inland sarasota-pinellas-
polk-sumter.

Hard freeze warning until 9 am est this morning for
coastal citrus-coastal levy-inland citrus-inland
hernando-inland levy-inland pasco-sumter.

Hard freeze watch from late tonight through Friday morning
for coastal citrus-coastal hernando-coastal levy-
inland citrus-inland hernando-inland levy-inland
pasco-sumter.

Freeze watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
coastal pasco-inland hillsborough-polk.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for
charlotte harbor and pine island sound-coastal waters
from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out 20 nm-
tampa bay waters-waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60
nm-waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
coastal waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out
20 nm-coastal waters from englewood to tarpon springs
fl out 20 nm.

Aviation... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 8 mi55 min NE 8 G 16 32°F 51°F1029.7 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 10 mi55 min NNE 6 G 9.9 29°F 55°F1029.8 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 13 mi61 min N 6 G 8
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 14 mi55 min NNE 8 G 11
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 14 mi115 min NE 11 G 15 30°F 1029.8 hPa
MCYF1 14 mi55 min 58°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 15 mi55 min NNE 6 G 9.9 31°F 57°F1029.2 hPa
CLBF1 16 mi115 min NNE 4.1 G 11 31°F 1028.1 hPa
MTBF1 22 mi55 min NE 12 G 16 31°F 1029.5 hPa
PMAF1 24 mi55 min 32°F 44°F1028.5 hPa
42098 29 mi79 min 58°F5 ft

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL4 mi56 minNNE 1010.00 miFair31°F17°F56%1029.7 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL8 mi56 minN 810.00 miFair29°F12°F51%1029.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL11 mi53 minNE 610.00 miFair27°F14°F59%1029.8 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL13 mi54 minNNE 710.00 miFair28°F15°F59%1029.8 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL14 mi56 minNNE 910.00 miFair32°F23°F69%1029 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL18 mi54 minN 710.00 miFair28°F14°F55%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from PIE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3N4NW7NW20NW17NW17NW19
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NW14N12N14N11N12N12N11N13
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1 day agoNE7E6E6NE4NE6NE5NE3NW9NW10NW7N5N4CalmNE3NE3E3CalmCalmN5NW5N4N5N3NE3
2 days agoN8N9N7N7N5N5N4N6N6N6NE7NE10NE9
G15
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NE8NE9NE9NE8NE8NE8NE8NE7NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Safety Harbor, Old Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Safety Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:09 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:13 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:19 PM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.12.42.52.42.21.71.10.5-0-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.20.20.71.21.41.51.41.31.11.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:08 PM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:41 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:57 PM EST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.5-0-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.10.50.91.110.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.4-0.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.