Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belleair, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:40PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 7:05 AM EST (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 259 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds around 5 knots then becoming east in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to around 10 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds around 15 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 259 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis.. Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday, with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move into the region Thursday, with showers and Thunderstorms and overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing up to around 14 feet or higher as well. Winds will start to diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be slower to decrease.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belleair, FL
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location: 27.98, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 181145
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
645 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Update
Patchy fog, some locally dense, early this morning will lift and
dissipate by mid-morning with mostly sunny skies expected for the
remainder of the day as high pressure moves across the eastern
states. Light northeast winds will shift to northwest near the
coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops with temperatures
climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overall the current
forecast looks good with no morning update planned.

Aviation
Patchy fog early this morning will give way toVFR conditions for
the rest of today into early tonight. Some more patchy fog with
localized MVFR ifr visibilities will be possible late tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Light and variable winds this
morning will become northwest during this afternoon.

Marine
Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday,
with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move
into the region Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms and
overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase to
near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing
up to around 14 feet or higher as well. Winds will start to
diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves
will be slower to subside.

Prev discussion issued 259 am est Tue dec 18 2018
discussion...

a quasi-zonal flow remains over the region early this morning with
ridging to our west. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our
northwest, with a low-level northwest flow in place across the local
area. For today, the ridge aloft will build over the region, with
dry weather and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. The ridge
will continue to shift west of the area through Wednesday as a
deepening trough moves into the central u.S. The surface reflection
associated with this feature will form along the northern gulf
coast southern plains area with a warm front, along with increasing
moisture spreading eastward, leading to showers and thunderstorms for
Wednesday afternoon across mainly the southern half of the forecast
area. Overall, Wednesday will see increasing clouds with temperatures
continuing to warm up by a couple of degrees.

For Wednesday night through Thursday, the surface low will move
through the southeast, with the warm front shifting north of the
area and the cold front passing late Thursday into Thursday night.

Widespread rainfall is likely, with some localized flooding
possible. In addition, we continue to see signals in the models
highlighting the possibility of some severe weather with the squall
line that comes through on Thursday. In particular, the NAM earlier
this afternoon was showing about an 80-knot low-level jet moving
into the region, and the 00z run really has not changed all that
much. The GFS does not show quite as strong of a jet, but still
shows increasing shear over the area, similar to the nam. We still
have some time to watch this, but models have been fairly consistent
over the past couple of days in showing the possibility of some
severe weather and, indeed, the storm prediction center is already
showing a 15 percent chance for severe storms for day 4 (Thursday).

Winds will shift to the west Thursday night into Friday, likely
increasing to gale force. Take this increase in winds plus the
increased wave action into account and we have a very good setup for
some coastal flooding. We will also likely keep clouds and some
shower activity around through Friday before high pressure and drier
air finally moves in for the weekend.

Fire weather...

no fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy,
shallow ground fog will be possible over the next few nights, mainly
over inland areas, but no widespread fog is anticipated.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 69 53 71 63 0 0 20 90
fmy 72 55 74 65 0 0 20 60
gif 71 51 74 62 0 0 10 70
srq 69 54 70 64 0 0 40 80
bkv 70 47 73 62 0 0 10 90
spg 67 57 70 63 0 0 30 90

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... 69 close
prev discussion... 05 carlisle & 11 mckaughan
upper air... 19 hurt
decision support... 24 hubbard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 0 mi53 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 64°F1020.1 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 12 mi71 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 55°F 1020.6 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 17 mi47 min NNE 5.1 G 6 57°F 64°F1020 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 19 mi59 min N 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 64°F1019.8 hPa
CLBF1 19 mi71 min Calm G 1 54°F 1019.1 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 21 mi65 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1
GCTF1 22 mi53 min 58°F 53°F
MCYF1 22 mi53 min 66°F
MTBF1 25 mi53 min NE 9.9 G 11 59°F 1020 hPa53°F
42098 27 mi35 min 65°F2 ft
PMAF1 28 mi53 min 52°F 64°F1019.8 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 32 mi131 min E 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL9 mi72 minN 410.00 miFair55°F55°F100%1019.8 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL16 mi72 minNNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds52°F50°F93%1019.9 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL18 mi72 minN 410.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1019.1 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL18 mi69 minNE 410.00 miFair49°F46°F93%1019.6 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL21 mi70 minN 07.00 mi0°F0°F%1020 hPa

Wind History from PIE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6N6NW8N13NW9N11NW9NW9NW7N8N5N5NW5N4CalmN4N8N5N5N4N4N4N3
1 day agoNE3NE3N3N6NE5CalmNW10NW8NW10NW11NW10N4NW7NW9NW6NW11NW7NW6N4N11N8N8N7N7
2 days agoS8S9S8SW9SW10SW8SW7SW5S5S5S4S4SW3SW3SW3S3NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Clearwater Beach, Florida
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Clearwater Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:22 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:52 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:54 PM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:06 PM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.30.30.60.91.31.61.71.71.61.41.210.911.31.72.12.42.52.42.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:03 AM EST     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:34 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:03 PM EST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:41 PM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.7-0.30.20.60.80.80.60.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.50.80.90.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.