Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 315 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 031134 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 634 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening

Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HRRR mean surface based CAPE ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result in an environment favorable for organized deep convection.

Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear will support supercells that will move east to southeast through the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts.
Finally, the 00Z HRRR guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3 inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5 inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash flooding this evening.

The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day.
That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday.

Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to southwesterly flow in the lower levels. This will result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday. Elsewhere temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid- upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values could exceed 110 degrees.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue along with light rain showers at ALI/CRP/VCT over the next 2-3 hours before improving to prevailing MVFR by mid-morning. Ceilings are expected to continue to improve to VFR at most TAF sites for a few hours late this afternoon before MVFR/IFR ceilings build back into the region this evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Sierra Madres late this afternoon and move to the east/southeast through the evening hours. The most likely location to see operational impacts will be KLRD where a PROB30 was introduced to this TAF package from 00Z-06Z.

MARINE
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 86 76 87 75 / 20 10 0 10 Victoria 85 73 87 73 / 40 10 0 10 Laredo 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 20 Alice 89 74 90 74 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 83 75 85 75 / 20 10 0 10 Cotulla 94 75 94 75 / 30 20 20 30 Kingsville 87 76 88 74 / 20 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 84 76 85 77 / 20 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Fri -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:51 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:40 AM CDT     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:00 PM CDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM CDT     -0.22 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:26 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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