Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mango, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:27 AM EDT (08:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:44PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 344 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..West winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast late in the evening, then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 344 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis.. The ridge of high pressure will hold to the south of the waters through the upcoming weekend, with westerly winds remaining below headline criteria. Thunderstorms will develop each day, mainly during the late evening and early morning hours, with some of the stronger storms capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mango, FL
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location: 28, -82.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 210714
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
314 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Short term (today - Friday)
Broad upper mid level ridging over the florida peninsula
and eastern gulf of mexico today will gradually shift east
through Friday as a closed low ejects from the central
plains into the midwest. At the surface, the subtropical
ridge of high pressure is shifting into southern florida and
the florida straits this morning as a weak surface trough
pushes into northern florida. Moisture pooling to the south
of this trough is leading to an area of deep moisture across
the northern and central portions of the florida
peninsula, with precipitable water values of around 2.0 to
2.5 inches. This deep moisture under westerly low level
flow will lead to building showers and thunderstorms over
the eastern gulf and coastal areas early this morning,
which will shift onshore throughout the rest of the morning.

Strong surface heating will lead to scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across the area by this afternoon, shifting
east and inland through the mid to late afternoon and early
evening hours.

On Friday, the surface ridge will remain south of the area,
keeping the forecast area under continued westerly flow.

Deep moisture will hold in place, with precipitable water
values forecast to remain in excess of two inches over much
of the region. Once again, showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico during
the early morning and move east into the coast. Afternoon
thunderstorms will develop along sea breeze and outflow
boundaries, but westerly flow will largely clear out the
coastal areas as convection shift inland through the late
afternoon and early evening.

Mid long term (Friday night-Wednesday)
A broad u l trough will extend across much of the CONUS to
begin the period with an u l ridge over the florida
peninsula. A strong u l disturbance will move across the
ohio river valley Friday night then rotate and weaken on
Saturday as it lifts across the eastern great lakes and is
absorbed by a digging northern stream trough over eastern
canada. This will briefly allow the u l trough to sink over
north florida... However the u l ridge will build back across
the state during the weekend as the u l disturbance exits
the CONUS allowing the trough to lift back north of the
state.

Complex u l pattern change across the CONUS early next week
as a strong u l trough pushes onshore the western u.S.

With strong quasi zonal flow developing across the northern
tier from the pacific northwest to the great lakes. A bit of
uncertainty in the extended range as the 21 00z GFS holds
back and cuts off u l energy over the mid atlantic coast
from an exiting lifting northern stream trough early mid
week... And this feature is not evident on the 20 12z ecmwf.

Would lean toward the ECMWF which promotes a building a
strong u l ridge from the four corners area to the southeast
u.S. And florida. Warmest temperatures over west central
and southwest florida likely Monday and Tuesday when the
center of the u l ridge is closest to the region with
greatest 50h around 592 or 593.

At the surface, strong high pressure over the central
atlantic will extend across the florida peninsula Saturday
with the ridge axis across the florida straits. This will
create onshore boundary layer flow across west central and
southwest florida... Which will promote scattered
showers thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties
during the late morning and early afternoon, pushing inland
across the interior by mid afternoon with an increase in
areal coverage. The ridge axis will gradually lift
north... Extending across the central florida peninsula on
Sunday. This will allow east southeast boundary layer flow
to develop over southwest florida which will increase
convergence along the west coast sea breeze boundary... With
higher pops and an increase in areal coverage of afternoon
showers thunderstorms south of the ridge axis. Onshore flow
north of the ridge axis across the nature coast should still
promote best chance of showers thunderstorms during the
late morning early afternoon with activity gradually pushing
inland through the day.

Uncertainty in the mid long term... And will currently
discount the GFS developing a surface low along the mid
atlantic coast which would indicate onshore flow developing
along the west coast of florida early mid week, which would
significantly impact pops sensible weather along with timing
each day. Will lean toward ECMWF with the area of high
pressure over the central atlantic shifting a bit east of
the area with weak boundary layer flow developing across the
florida peninsula in its wake. This will likely allow
scattered showers thunderstorms to develop along the west
coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties during
the early afternoon... With the boundary gradually pushing
inland through the day eventually colliding with the east
coast sea breeze boundary over the interior which will
enhance shower thunderstorm activity during the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Stronger insolation on
Monday and Tuesday could lead to a few strong storms with
damaging wind gusts. Due to the weak boundary layer flow,
could see outflow boundaries push back to the coast with a
continued chance of showers thunderstorms through the
evening hours each day across all of west central and
southwest florida.

Aviation
A few showers could start to form around the tampa bay area
terminals just before sunrise... Beginning around
09z... And could interruptVFR conditions through the rest of
the morning as they move east and inland. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop across the area this afternoon,
pushing east and inland of area terminals by the late
afternoon to early evening.

Marine
The ridge of high pressure will remain south of the area
through the upcoming weekend, keeping light westerly winds
in place across the eastern gulf of mexico. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible each day, mostly during
the early morning hours. Winds and seas will remain below
headline criteria, except in the vicinity of some of the
stronger thunderstorms.

Fire weather
Relative humidity will remain well above critical levels
through the forecast period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 89 80 89 79 40 20 30 10
fmy 92 77 91 76 30 10 20 10
gif 92 76 91 75 50 20 50 10
srq 88 80 88 78 30 20 30 10
bkv 89 76 90 74 50 20 30 10
spg 89 80 89 79 40 20 30 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through this evening for coastal
sarasota.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 18 fleming
mid term long term decision support... 13 oglesby


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 7 mi57 min SW 1.9 G 4.1
MCYF1 8 mi39 min 89°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 15 mi39 min W 7 G 8 84°F 88°F1013.2 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 23 mi45 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 88°F1013 hPa
CLBF1 26 mi93 min N 1.9 G 1.9 84°F 1013.2 hPa
MTBF1 27 mi39 min NW 4.1 G 6 83°F 1013.3 hPa75°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 27 mi93 min WNW 7 G 8.9 84°F 1014.2 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 27 mi39 min WSW 7 G 8.9 1013.3 hPa
PMAF1 28 mi39 min 84°F 89°F1013.2 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 35 mi93 min W 6 G 8.9 86°F 1013.3 hPa
42098 43 mi27 min 87°F1 ft

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL1 mi32 minN 07.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1013.2 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL9 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair81°F77°F89%1013.9 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL9 mi32 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F77°F89%1013.2 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL11 mi34 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1013.2 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL14 mi31 minSW 310.00 miFair82°F75°F80%1013.5 hPa
Lakeland Regional, FL17 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1013.5 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL20 mi34 minWSW 510.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1013 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL22 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair84°F77°F80%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from VDF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4W3CalmW3W4CalmW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmE3E3CalmE4E3NW11
G18
NW4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5E4CalmNE3E4E3CalmE4SE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Hillsborough Bay
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Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.310.80.80.91.21.622.32.42.42.221.81.51.41.31.41.51.71.81.91.9

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-00.50.810.90.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.60.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.